by EJ Fagan
December 2024
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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.
Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.
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Yesterday, the Yankees have signed Paul Goldschmidt to a one-year, $12.5 million contract.
Goldschmidt is without a doubt an upgrade over what the Yankees got at first base last season, but worst in the majors is a low bar. Here’s is what he did:
Let’s talk about the good stuff first. Even though he had a down year, he was still an above average hitter. He still barrels the balls up real well and hits the ball hard. He recovered in 2024 after a terribly slow start to a finish very strong. He’s a veteran that I think is regarded as a good clubhouse guy, although that’s just based on my general vibe.
But, Goldschmidt clearly showed signs of decline 2024. His defense, running, and contact skills all slipped, as you would expect of a 36 year-old on the steep part of his aging curve.
I think the question for the Yankees is: how much does Goldschmidt have left in the tank? He’s only two years past his MVP award. We’re talking about a borderline Hall of Famer. It would neither shock me if Goldschmidt has a bounce back season nor if he’s done by July. The optimist in my wonders if a guy with such a great career but only disappointment in the postseason has some extra motivation at the end. But the cautious person in my wants them to hold on to Ben Rice as an insurance policy.
We’ll deal with questions like batting order when the lineup is more clear. The Yankees have a lot of guys that you would be comfortable batting 5th-7th.
Does this make the Yankees more likely to trade for Nolan Arenado? The MLB.com beat writers report that Arenado would be more likely to waive his no-trade earlier this week. That’s reporting, not speculation, so my guess is that Arenado’s agent leaked it. If Arenado tells the Cardinals that it’s Yankees or bust, they might be forced to retain more of his salary to fit the budget.
It also leaves first base open for 2026 and beyond. Maybe that means Ben Rice gets a chance to claim the position. Maybe it means that they sign Vlad Jr. or someone else.
I think it’s a good signing. I would have preferred some of the trade options out there, but teams may not have been willing to trade them for a reasonable price. The Yankees still hang on to all of their trade chips for deals later this offseason or at the deadline. We’ll see if they have something else in them before things slow down for the holiday season.
If Arenado tells the Cardinals that it’s Yankees or bust
not likely, but Arenado's restricted the Cardinals' options
and that severely limits the team's likelihood of striking a highly beneficial deal
it's likely that the Cards will be striking a "best we can do under the circumstances" deal
and it's possible that the Dodgers might benefit