by EJ Fagan
December 2024
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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.
Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.
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The Yankees traded Cody Poteet for Cody Bellinger and $5 million. He’ll play center field for the 2025 Yankees.
I wrote about Bellinger a few weeks ago, so I won’t repeat myself too much here. The basic outline still applies:
Bellinger solves a lot of the Yankees problems as a left-hand hitting outfielder, less so as a first baseman.
He’s overrated and overpaid, but still a good baseball player.
He’s got talent and a Yankee Stadium swing, so there is a lot of upside.
With a thin set of options, the Yankees took on a short commitment rather than sign an expensive free agent for half a decade or more. Bellinger was pretty much the only center fielder on the market and pretty much the only left-handed hitter. They’ll pay him a lot in 2025 and hope that he is good enough to opt out a year later.
I think it’s a good move. I don’t want to think about who would have played outfield otherwise. There are plenty of solid-to-good infield options available. He’s useful even if he just repeats his 2024 2.2 WAR season, and he’s a bargain if he bounces back toward his 2023 4 WAR season.
I’ll do some lineup analysis when the Yankees have a fuller roster, but my big take is that Bellinger should probably bat ahead of Judge, not behind him. Otherwise, he’ll be a double play machine. Maybe Bellinger benefits from pitchers throwing him strikes.
Let’s instead talk about where the Yankees go now. The payroll currently stands at $292 million. The Yankees don’t want to go much above $300 million. They still have at least two starting spots to fill, six starting pitchers, and a few ancillary moves like resigning Tim Hill.
Two payroll-clearing moves seem pretty obvious. I’m still surprised that they tendered a $5 million (estimated) contract to Trent Grisham. And Marcus Stroman is still owed $18.5 million. With those moves, they have about $31 million left in the budget. That’s plenty for one big move or two medium-sized moves.
Christmas is still more than a week away, so I think we’ll see some movement quickly.
once long back in the mists of time, the New York Yankees had a star second baseman heading to free agency, and i thought that the Yankees would not accede to the star's demand for a contract of 10 years' duration.
I thought it wise that the Yankees trade Mr. Cano during the summer and thought that they might send him to Texas for a couple of very young infielders, one of which was named Profar
Mr Profar is still an MLB player, still available... still a bit sub-par on defense and probably still worth acquiring if he can be used sometimes as a second baseman, sometimes as a left fielder
I was surprised when they signed Grisham instead of non tendering him. Mike Tauchman and Dylan Carlson were just 2 vets non tendered, along with the rehabbing Everson Pereira. If last year taught us anything, a stable day in, day out lineup is the way to go, and with Judge pushed back to RF, even more the defensive 8 should be more stabilized, since he won't require as many DH days.
i hate to doubt you, as I feel you are one of the couple smartest people here. that said, we added Fried, 27 million and change, Bellinger 25 million, Williams? about 3.5?
minus Soto 31 million
Gleyber 15 million
Verdugo 8 million
Kahnle 14 million
Rizzo 14 million
Nestor 3.5
Holmes 3.5
there are additional subtractions, but that seems like about 55 million in additions and 89 million in subtractions. i understand the goal is to have a lower payroll than last year, but it seems like we have more than a few million to spend prior to offloading Stroman and others
the deal on Grisham makes him less expensive than he was last year for whatever team we trade…
Christmas is still more than a week away, so I think we’ll see some movement quickly.
new toys and warm sweaters are less expensive in January
but seeing smiles on small faces is always worth a great deal