Wrapping Up the Yankee Farm System

by EJ Fagan

July 24, 2024

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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We’ve talked about hitting prospects. We’ve talked about pitching prospects. The overall picture was pretty bad. Let’s find some optimism.

Every year, a few unranked prospects break out in a big way. Ben Rice, Chase Hampton and Agustin Ramirez were those guys in 2023. These kinds of players are especially important for a team like the Yankees who will never draft all that high. Let’s talk about a few of the 2024 breakout prospects.

Ben Shields, SP

Here’s a fun one. Shields was an undrafted free agent after graduating from George Mason University as a 24-year old in 2023. The Yankees picked him up and sent him to High-A. He was incredible: 2.76 ERA, 12 K/9, 1.7 BB/9. He earned a quick promotion to Double-A. He was even better in his two starts, allowing just 1 run in 12 innings. The Yankees decided to push him even farther to Triple-A, where he got hammered in his first start.

It’s been a meteoric season for Shields, although it sure feels like the Yankees rushed him to Triple-A. Perhaps they see him as trade bait. If not, he could be an important depth starter next year.

Shields is such a new breakout that I can’t find a public scouting report on him. He’s a 6”4’ lefty. Statcast did observe his Triple-A start so we know that he mostly throws a 2-seam fastball between 92 and 94 mph and an 82-ish mph slider.

Caleb Durbin, INF

I think Yankee fans are pretty familiar with Caleb Durbin at this point. He didn’t make prospect lists because he is such an unorthodox player. If not for a poorly timed pitch to the hand that required surgery in June, he would probably be playing in New York by now.

If he becomes a major league player, I think Durbin becomes an instant fan favorite. He’s listed at 5’6” 185 lbs. He has played at 2b, 3b, SS and a little OF in 2024. He struck out just 5.6% in Double-A last year, and is under 10% at Triple-A. The batting line was at a nice .299/.413/.458 when he was injured. He’s super fast: 20 stolen bases against 2 caught stealing in 47 games in 2024.

As you might guess, Durbin doesn’t hit the ball very hard. His Statcast Triple-A numbers are very Arraez-like: 2% barrel rate due to a 24% hard hit rate and 84 mph exit velocity. His Triple-A expected numbers are a little scary: .231/.353/.317.

I’d kill for a sprint speed reading on Durbin. Down On the Farm estimates him at 28.3 based on available stats, roughly equal to Volpe.

The player that Durbin reminds me most of is actually Jon Berti, although I wouldn’t be shocked if he legged out a little more power thanks to his small guy hustle.

Jesus Rodriguez, C/3B

I don’t know a lot about Rodriguez. He’s 22 years old. He plays mostly catcher, but also has played games at 3rd and LF. This old scouting report suggested that he had solid tools behind the plate, but I can’t find anything more recent nor any good video.

He’s done nothing but hit in the minor leagues, but has really mashed in 2024. He’s hitting .327/.412/.504 at mostly High-A with a 10% strikeout rate. He was promoted this week to Double-A when there was finally an opening at catcher.

If he can play defense at either position, Rodriguez could be a pretty good prospect. I’ll wait for the scouting reports, but keep an eye on him.

The 2024 Draft Class

I don’t have a lot to say about individual draftees right now. We’ll know more about them after they play in the minors and scouts start to comment. I’d like to briefly opine on the Yankees draft strategy though.

The Yankees have drafted hitters in the first round for a while now. The last pitcher they took in the top-30 was Clark Schmidt in 2017. They’ve been successful-ish: Volpe and Wells were hits in 2019-2020, Spencer Jones is a top prospect from 2022, and George Lombard could turn out pretty good. All of these players were consensus first round picks. The only real miss since 2017 was Trey Sweeney, who is not coincidentally the only non-consensus pick. The Yankees get into trouble when they get weird (see: Kyle Holder, Dante Bichette Jr, Antony Seigler).

But the real strength of the Yankee draft operation has always been college pitchers. They find guys in the mid rounds like Will Warren, Garret Hampton, Drew Thorpe, Jack Neely, Ken Waldichuk, Hayden Wesneski and Glen Otto and coach them a bit.

The problem with these pitchers is that they’re in the mid rounds for a reason. Even great coaching isn’t going to turn many of them into #3 starters or closers. The ceiling is generally pretty low. When they’ve drafted pitchers high, they’ve almost always been high school players or college pitchers with injury issues.

But what if you took that same advantage and drafted college pitchers early? With better raw material, the Yankees might be able to do better. I don’t know anything about Ben Hess and Bryan Cunningham besides the scouting reports, but MLB.com had them projected as solid second-ish round picks with upside. They’re also healthy.

Unlike with hitting, I have a lot of confidence that the Yankees can coach these guys up consistently.