Who Makes the ALDS Roster?

by EJ Fagan

August 24, 2024

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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I’m back! And just in time for the Yankees to officially make the post-season. While the division isn’t exactly locked up yet, Fangraphs gives them a 97% chance to win the AL East. It’s time to talk ALDS rosters.

First, some parameters. The Yankees can bring 26 players to the series with no hitter/pitcher restrictions. The American League cadence is: Game 1, Off Day, Game 2, Off Day, Game 3, Game 4, Off Day, Game 5. They can use only three starters on regular rest, and can also pretty much use every relief pitcher each game without tiring them out too much.

Who are locks the make the roster? By my count:

2 Catchers: Wells, Trevino

• 5 Infielders: Volpe, Torres, Chisholm, Cabrera, Rizzo

• 4 Outfielders/DH: Judge, Soto, Verdugo, Stanton

• 4 Starters*: Cole, Rodon, Gil, Cortes

• 5 Relievers: Weaver, Cousins, Kahnle, Hamilton, Hill

  
  

*Who actually makes the rotation is another post, but these four are locks

That gives us 20 locks. Who are the other six players?

The Probables:

Jasson Dominguez

I almost put Dominguez down as a lock. My hesitation was that I’m pretty sure that the Yankees would carry Verdugo as a bench player, but might pass on Dominguez if he doesn’t start. He’s been playing most of their games since his call-up. The numbers aren’t great, but the sample is small. We’ll see how the last few series go, but Dominguez is probably starting.

Clark Schmidt

Schmidt’s return has gone okay, but definitely not good enough to secure a top-4 starting spot. They’ve already pushed Marcus Stroman to the bullpen. I wonder if they’ll try Schmidt out with a few games left in the season. His stuff should hold up well in short relief.

Jon Berti

The Yankees haven’t given Berti hardly any playing time since his return from the injured list. There isn’t any obvious spot for him in the lineup against so many right-handed batters. The Yankees aren’t going to sit Chisholm and Torres until they have the division locked up, and Cabrera is also around. I’m a little more surprised that they haven’t tried using him in a bench role, but that might come soon. Berti makes too much sense as a veteran pinch runner, defensive replacement and situational hitter.

Just in:

Marcus Stroman

Stroman should be a lock for a 7-game series roster. He would serve as a long reliever and emergency starter while Cortes returns to the rotation. But, the Yankees don’t need two of those guys (plus Schmidt) on a 5-game series roster. I think the Yankees will take him out of respect, but they probably shouldn’t.

Clay Holmes

I would have had him as a lock before Wednesday’s game. Holmes went from getting a little unlucky on batted balls in July and August to being just bad in September. To make matters worse, for the first time in a while Holmes’ stuff looks downright hittable. I think he makes the roster, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they sub out one of the bubble guys below for him, especially if he has another bad outing or two. They have better late inning options right now.

The Last Man

I think there are three choices for the 26th spot on the roster:. The first two are Duke Ellis and Lou Trivino

Ellis is easy. He’s a pure pinch runner. Do the Yankees need a pure pinch runner? Probably not. Jon Berti is super fast. The Yankees aren’t even carrying him on the September expanded roster right now. But the Yankees don’t have a clear other position player worth carrying, so Ellis would be the guy if they decide that they have enough pitching (I think they do). He might not make the ALCS roster though, where another relief pitcher could be important.

Trivino would be that relief pitcher, I think. He’s got a full month of rehab under his belt. The results haven’t been great, but have improved lately. The Yankees will have a few MLB games to see what he has. Still, I have trouble seeing them giving him any kind of leverage in a 5-game series with three off days.

I have one dark horse for the 26th man spot though: Ben Rice. Anthony Rizzo has gotten some hits lately, so I expect him to be their starting 1st baseman in the playoffs. But, Ben Rice has been on a tear since his demotion to Triple-A. He’s at .280/.457/.660, including going 8-14 with three home runs in his last four games. Maybe the Yankees give him a chance, especially if Rizzo goes into another hard slump to end the season. At the very least, he could be their only real weapon off the bench against right-handed pitchers.

Out

Who loses out? The most glaring name is Trent Grisham. The Yankees completely stopped playing him in the major leagues even before Dominguez came up. He has a grant total of two plate appearances in September - one on the 4th and one on the 17th. Grisham provides zero utility off the bench as a pinch hitter or runner, and is only a small upgrade on defense. I could only imagine them carrying him if someone gets injured, or Dominguez has a few more bad errors.

The other big name that I’d project out is Mark Leiter Jr. What a disaster of a trade. He and Tim Mayza have no place on a postseason roster.

I wish the Yankees had given a right-handed bench bat like Oswaldo Peraza or Caleb Durbin an opportunity, but that ship has sailed.