By Domenic Lanza
December 20, 2024
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NOTE FROM EJ FAGAN: Programming Note: Big news here at Baseball is Life! My old blogging partner and occasional podcast co-host Domenic Lanza is going to be writing some posts here going forward. Domenic not only wrote with me at It’s About the Money and co-founded the Bronx Beat Podcast back in the day, but has also written for great places like River Ave Blues and Pinstripe Alley. If you like my stuff, I think you will like what Domenic has to offer as well.
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Here’s what we know: The Cardinals are poised to rebuild, and Nolan Arenado has requested a trade. It has been reported that he would accept a trade to any of the Angels, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Mets, or Red Sox, though it isn’t quite clear if it’s only these teams. At first glance, it seems like a random list of contenders plus the Angels – but Arenado is a Californian who resides there in the off-season, and there are fates far worse than playing close to home for a lot of money. Given that he would play in the Northeast, though, and in one of the five boroughs at that, it seems reasonable that he’d also waive his no trade clause to come to the Bronx.
We also know, as of Wednesday afternoon, he wasn’t quite willing to become an Astro.
Contract-wise, Arenado comes with three years of control at a total of $74 MM. The Rockies – remember when they dealt Arenado for peanuts and paid down his contract just to use that money to sign Kris Bryant? – are kicking in $5 MM in 2025 and 2026, which means whatever team acquiring him is responsible for only $64 MM in actual dollars.
The Yankees have been tied to him throughout this off-season. Some of it is wishcasting from fans, and a bit of it is simply that they are linked to every big-name player who’s on the move – but it is a fit that makes sense, and there are indications that they’ve checked-in on Arenado. A huge part of Jazz Chisholm’s value is that he can play second, third, and center, so acquiring a third baseman fills the whole at second, as well. Outside of Alex Bregman, the free agent market doesn’t offer a ton of hope at second or third, so a trade may be the most practical route. Moreover, Arenado has said that he would be willing to move to first base, and the Yankees have a glaring hole there. However, while versatility is great, he’s still an elite defender at third, and it makes no sense to move him down the defensive spectrum.
For my part, I have an irrational love of third-base defense. It is where I played in little league, high school, and college, and I’ve simply always adored watching a sterling defender ply his trade. Arenado is arguably the best defensive third baseman of my lifetime, and I would love to see him put on a show for my hometown team – especially next to Anthony Volpe. And it’s not too hard to remember when he was a middle of the lineup force, either.
It’s a thing of beauty.
Arenado, who will turn 34 on April 16, has hit .269/.320/.426 over the last two years, which equates to a 104 OPS+ and wRC+. While that is certainly acceptable for a premium defender, there are signs that this production was an overachievement based on his underlying metrics. He outpaced his expected wOBA by 7 points in 2023 and 17 points in 2024, which may not appear too staggering on its face – but that’s only the beginning.
In 2024, Arenado posted the worst barrel percentage, exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and expected SLG of his career. If we eliminate his rough 2020, it also represented his worst expected batting average, expected wOBA, and expected wOBACON (wOBA on contact). Given the age and the mileage, and the fact that this downward trend started in 2023, it is hard to think that this is anything other than a player in decline.
2024 visualized does not paint a pretty picture.
If we assume that Arenado has bottomed-out and can maintain last year’s production for the next three years, then you can squint and see an overpaid but productive player (not unlike Cody Bellinger). Unfortunately, unlike Bellinger, there is reason to believe that he will be actively hurt by Yankee Stadium, as a pull-heavy righty. Arenado has hit 106 home runs with the Cardinals, and 104 of those were to left or left-center. The two outliers were hit to just right of center; he hasn’t hit a home run to right field since 2019. Put this together, and Arenado would have had 21 fewer home runs as a Yankee in this time frame (as per Baseball Savant).
A deal for Arenado means acquiring a player entering his mid-30s for three years, at a luxury tax AAV of $21.3 MM (roughly). His defense has made him a 2.5 to 3.0 WAR player over the last two years, and that would probably be worth the outlay. A further offensive decline would muddle things – especially if his glove slips at all. And for a team that is allegedly hoping to stick under $300 MM in payroll, his salary would require the Yankees to dump all or most of Stroman’s contract (and possibly Grisham’s, too). It’s a questionable, at best, way to fill out the rest of the payroll.
So, is there a way to make Arenado fit? I think the goal would need to be some manner of getting his tax hit down to $12 MM or so. This serves as a buffer against continued decline, and allows the Yankees more wiggle room to further bolster the roster. Would the Cardinals kick in $9 MM a year, though? Maybe! The nixed deal included between $15 MM and $20 MM also heading to Houston, as per Mark Feinsand, so it is clear they’re willing to foot some of the bill. The key then becomes whether this is Bellinger 2.0, and the Cardinals are just happy to have the greater salary relief, or if there is an actual host of talent being exchanged.
If the Yankees are saying ‘screw it’ and going all in, this becomes moot. Arenado at third and Chisholm at second is far better than Chisholm at third and a pupu platter of DJ LeMahieu, Oswaldo Cabrera, and the like at the keystone. I am confident Arenado will be good enough for at least 2025, and adding him and a legitimate first baseman makes the team so much better. Their window is now.
If payroll gymnastics are required, or first base will be filled by LeMahieu, Cabrera, and Ben Rice as a result of the added salary, then I’m skeptical a worthwhile deal is there. Ultimately, that’s the key: if Arenado coming aboard means more additions, I’m in. If he’s treated as the final piece of the puzzle, no thank you.
