What Could a Blake Snell Contract Look Like?

by EJ Fagan

February 29, 2024

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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Blake Snell rumors are heating up. This feels real.

Earlier in the offseason, I wrote that I didn’t want to sign Blake Snell at his asking price. I think he’s a bit overrated and won’t age well. Still, he’s a pretty good pitcher. I wrote then and still believe that he would be a good addition if the Yankees can get a short term deal.

The problem is the luxury tax. The Yankees will pay a 110% tax on any new spending. That makes a high-AAV, short term deal very expensive. A one year, $30 million deal for Snell would marginally cost $63 million. Maybe the Steinbrenners are happy to pay that cost, but I’m skeptical.

Let’s assume that they aren’t. Bellinger’s deal is structured as $30 million in 2024 and 2025, with opt outs after each season, and $20 million in 2026. The luxury tax hit is $26 million, or $55 million to the Yankees.

Could we lower that AAV? I bet the Yankees could. In fact, I’m going to make a prediction. Snell signs the following contract:

• 2024: $30 million, opt out

• 2025: $20 million, opt out

• 2026: $20 million

• $2027: $20 million

• 2028: $15 million

• 2029: $15 million
  

The deal would guarantee Snell $120 million. It’s AAV is $20 million. The Yankees would pay Snell’s $30 million salary in 2025, plus $22 million. Snell is strongly encouraged to opt out after the 2024 season, but is guaranteed a big payday if something goes wrong.

It’s effectively a one year deal with some insurance for Snell. If he’s an ace again, Snell could go out and ask for a long term contract.

Signing Snell would be a BFD. Just look at his Statcast page:

That’s pretty darn elite. Snell would cement the 2024 Yankee rotation as the best in the American League. And all he costs is money.