Trading with the Guardians for Shane Bieber

by Cary Greene

January 14, 2024

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Okay, here goes…the Yankees still need starting pitching and they could also use a legitimate closer so they can use Clay Holmes as a bridge man. The Guardians have 28-year-old righty Shane Bieber, who Baseball Trade Values rates as being worth a mere $5.6 MTV, under contract for the 2024 season, after which he’s vamoose. He accepted $13.125 million in what is his final year of arbitration eligibility.  

It’s a big year for Bieber, who has steadily been losing a little velocity (2.7 mph) on his fastball since his 2021 peak. I have a sneaking suspicion that Bieber is likely worth quite a bit more than what BTV lists him as being worth. His 2024 salary is fairly substantial and that, combined with an off (for him) season in 2023, are probably the reasons for BTV having a bearish take on Bieber’s value.  

Yankees rumblings suggest that reuniting Bieber with Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake might pay dividends as it could potentially help Bieber return to 2022 form. I’ve studied this potential and I think there is at least some merit to the idea. Blake is likely not going to help Bieber find the velocity he’s lost, but he might impact him with pitch selection and location.  

A big reason Bieber has featured his 4-seam fastball 22.2 percent less than he did back when he broke out in 2018 is that the pitch is no longer as good as it once was. He’s also locating his 4-seamer heart of the plate and in to right-handed batters, getting away from moving it to all quadrants of the zone like he used to. Acknowledging that he’s lost velocity, Blake might be able to help him get back to playing off the fastball more and that might mean some tweaks would be in order.  

Considering the Guardian’s needs to greatly improve their lineup and also replace Bieber with a controllable starter, should they decide to move him, it’s widely believed that the Guardians may look to not only extract maximum value for Bieber but they also may include soon to be 26-year old closer Emmanuel Clase ($51.4 MTV) in order to get as much value in return if a trade partner was to materialize. This idea was floated by  James Rapian from Inside the Reds a few days after Christmas. Besides the Reds, a number of other teams desperate for starting pitching are surely circling the Guardians like buzzards as they check in on Cleveland’s willingness to dangle Bieber.  

What is clear is that Yankees and Guardians do match up in a possible trade. Considering that well north of $57 MTV would need to be ponied up in prospects in a deal of this size and scope, and weighing what the Guardians would want in return - controllable starting pitching and a serious boost to their offense, a successful Yankees proposal isn’t all that far fetched to imagine.  

Seeing as how the Guardians posted a MLB worst .630 OPS last season when batting right-handed and were actually pretty solid when batting left-handed (.732 OPS - 5th in the League), they would certainly want any deal such as this to change that narrative.  

While the Yankees don’t have a lot of right-handed pop to offer Cleveland, given that Spencer Jones and Jasson Dominguez are probably both off limits, they do have Anthony Volpe ($58 MTV), who was not long ago rated as MLB’s best pure hitting prospect by MLB.COM. It may sound very painful to Yankees fans that I even mention Volpe, but it’s likely that the Guardians reject most other potential Yankees packages.  

Try as I might to believe a deal centering on Clarke Schmidt ($19.7 MTV), Oswald Peraza ($14.7 MTV) and Everson Pereira ($12.7 MTV), plus other nearly ready pitching that Cleveland might view favorably as lottery tickets almost, would get a deal done - I struggle to see the Guardians wavering on asking for the Yankees reigning Gold Glover - Volpe.  

Would Cleveland consider Schmidt/Peraza/Pereira and perhaps Will Warren ($9.7) or Ian Hamilton ($6.8 MTV) and Clayton Beeter ($2.3 MTV) instead of a simple Volpe for Bieber and Clase deal? On one hand, the Guardians would get a starting infielder, a possible starting outfielder and a rotation piece while adding either a high leverage reliever and or a potential starter. That’s a lot of right-handed help, perhaps it would be too much to turn down for Cleveland’s GM Mike Chernoff.  

Let’s discuss trading for Beiber in the comments below today!