Top 5 Trade Deadline Candidates

by EJ Fagan

July 15, 2024

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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The Athletic is out with its list of top 10 most likely players that the Yankees could buy at the trade deadline. It’s a fun list. Let’s see if any make sense for the Yankees later this month.

1) Jonathan India, 2b

Heck yes.

It feels like the Reds have been trying to trade India ever since he won Rookie of the Year. He didn’t hit too well in his second and third year, but is now batting a healthy .275/.375/.426. The broader Statcast page is pretty great too:

India looks like a leadoff hitter. He doesn’t hit for a ton of power, but has near-Soto levels of control over the strike zone. He’s fast but not a burner. He’s a right-handed hitter, but doesn’t have particularly strong platoon splits. He's under team control for two and a half more seasons.

His career fWAR numbers aren’t too impressive: 3.4, 0.3, 1.5 from 2021-2023. He’s on track for a 3.5-4.0ish season this year, in part because his defense has improved.

If the Reds make India available, the Yankees should go all-out for him. He’s in the sweet spot of filling the team’s glaring gap at leadoff, having team control for a few more years, and not being too good to drive his price up. India will cost more than anyone else on this list, but shouldn’t bankrupt the farm system.

The Yankees would probably have to trade Gleyber Torres after acquiring India. I’m fine with that. Maybe they could get something for him. Torres is gone after this season either way, and the Yankees have no obvious replacements for him.

My best offer for Jonathan India: Agustin Ramirez + minor prospects. We can talk about Spencer Jones too.

2) Matt Chapman, 3b

After Matt Chapman had a horrible second half for Toronto in 2023, no one wanted to sign him to a big contract. He was still a Gold Glove third baseman, but there was a lot of risk that a big Matt Chapman contract would backfire pretty quickly.

They were wrong. Chapman has almost exactly hit his career average numbers in 2024: .240/.326/.420 in a tough ballpark. His Statcast numbers suggest he might be even a little bit better:

Chapman is probably going to use his opt-out after this season to try and sign a long term deal. He’s 31 years old. The Giants are bad. They are paying him $18 million. Chapman is getting traded.

He would effectively replace DJ LeMahieu on the roster. He would be a massive improvement over the diminished veteran in every way.

Let me point out a two smaller things:

• Chapman is sneaky fast. I didn’t realize that his sprint speed, which has ticked up this year, was even better than Anthony Volpe. He’s never stolen a lot of bases, but helps to provide a new dimension for the Yankees.

• He has massive platoon splits. He’s hit .315/.390/.565 against left-handed pitching and .213/.302/.368 against right-handed pitching. Normally I’d be against a right-handed hitter with that kind of extreme split, but the 2024 Yankees sure could use him.

My best offer for Matt Chapman: I think Chapman won’t cost too much. Probably a quantity package centered around someone like Chase Hampton.

3) Kirby Yates and (4) Tanner Scott, RP

Relief pitchers! More, please.

Realistically, the Yankees are going to make a few relief pitcher trades, but we’re not going to be able to predict who they are. Do the Yankees play on the high end veteran side of the market like Yates and Scott? I hope so. Do they also play on the low end project side? Of course they will.

Yates and Scott are both having incredible seasons. Statcast suggests that Yates has been a little better than Scott, but both would be big, reliable upgrades for the Yankees. They would allow the Yankees to use Kahnle a little less, perhaps against left-handed lanes. Weaver might go back into more of a true multi-inning role.

Scott is interesting in that he’s a lefty. The Yankees would take anyone to help out their bullpen, but could really use a strong left-handed relief pitcher. They could face Rafael Devers in a Wild Card game after all.

My best offer: Relief pitchers are cheap, so we’re talking about a combo of mid-range prospects like Brock Selvidge and a reclamation project or two like Oswaldo Peraza.

5) Brent Rooker, OF/DH

I’m so conflicted on Rooker.

On one hand, he’s basically a better Giancarlo Stanton. He’s mostly a DH. He’s hitting .281/.361/.536 on the season after a solid breakout 2023. His Statcast page is fun:

On the other hand, he creates a real logjam with Stanton. Rooker adds another DH-only spot to the roster. Given how Stanton started to hit pretty well before the injury, I can’t imagine the Yankees jettisoning him in a few weeks. I think you would see Rooker play a left of left field, which is going to be ugly.

I’m also a little concerned about his approach at the plate. He’s basically a right-handed Joey Gallo. I can’t imagine him batting .281 for long with a 35% strikeout rate.

My best offer: I think I pass.