Time to Pivot: Rebuilding a Post-Soto Yankees

by EJ Fagan

December 2024

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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Here is my plan for the Yankees without Juan Soto. The plan has three goals:

1. Have the best pitching and defense in the MLB

2. No black holes.

3. Sign Vlad Jr. next year

   
   

Let’s talk about it these one at a time.

Pitching and Defense

There is no way to replace Soto’s offense. Even if they signed Alex Bregman and Anthony Santander, Soto would still contribute more runs. The free agents bats just don’t exist at the moment.

Let’s start with defense. The Yankees have top tier defense at shortstop and catcher. How can they improve the other positions? Let’s do a quick position-by-position with the playoff starters:

• Right Field - Soto was -5 OAA (14th percentile). Judge is at least average, maybe better. Let’s call it a 6 run improvement.

• Center Field - Judge was -5 OAA (9th! percentile). Jazz Chisholm was +4 in 97 games in 2023. Cody Bellinger was average in 2024. Jasson Dominguez is probably average or better. The Yankees can improve a ton here. Let’s call it +8 runs.

• Left Field - Alex Verdugo was +2 OAA (74th percentile) in 2024. I think Dominguez basically matches that.

• First Base - Anthony Rizzo was surprisingly bad at -3 OAA (24th percentile) last year. Christian Walker and Carlos Santana were both 13+ OAA players last year. I’m not quite sure that they would both be that huge of an improvement, but let’s say that the Yankees can sign one and improve by +8 runs.

• Second Base - Gleyber Torres was -4 OAA (15th percentile). My eye test says he was even worse last year, but let’s go with Statcast. Jazz Chisholm was +3 in 60 games in 2022 and +6 in 91 games in 2021. Caleb Durbin is probably average-ish. Thairo Estrada was +20 in 2023. I have no clue who plays second in 2025, but I think they can do at least +5 runs.

• Third Base - Statcast has both LeMahieu (+5) and Chisholm (+8) as elite defenders last year in less than half a season each. I don’t really believe either rate. In particular, I think Statcast misses a lot of Chisholm’s worst missed routine plays. Like second, I don’t have a good idea of who plays 3rd, but I imagine that they can improve by at least a little bit. Bregman was +6 (91st percentile) last year. I’m going to deny Statcast and say the Yankees were -2 runs below average last year, so could easily add at least 3-5 runs.

All told it’s not at all crazy that the Yankees could improve by 20-30 runs on defense. That’s a lot! The Yankees got burned whenever they allowed contact last year. They could turn it into a major strength. They could make up 2-3 WAR on defense easily, meaning they only need to find 5 WAR on offense to replace Soto. Plus, better defensive players probably also help the Yankees improve their league-worst -17 runs from base running.

On top of defense, the Yankees could improve a ton on pitching. They’ve been linked to Max Fried and Corbin Burnes. They could improve by signing either of those guys or someone like Jack Flaherty (or Roki Sasaki!). That would allow them to trade one of Gil, Schmidt or Cortes for a hitter. They could easily add 3 wins here.

And don’t forget the bullpen. I think the easiest way for the Yankees to make up some wins is to sign a few top relievers. Guys like Jeff Hoffman and Tanner Scott would instantly be huge upgrades over what the Yankees got last year.

No Black Holes

Since 2021, the Yankees have had a nasty habit of surrendering two or three positions every season, effectively negating Aaron Judge’s dominance. In 2024, they were dead last at first base and in the bottom third at left field. They were also awful at third before the Chisholm trade. They had similar problems in each of the previous three seasons across various positions.

That’s just unacceptable. If they had brought back Soto, I would have said that the Yankees can get creative, like a Peraza/Cabrera third base platoon or playing Caleb Durbin at 2nd. Even if they weren’t great, the Yankees can afford a weak spot or two with an 8 WAR right fielder. Not anymore. The Yankees cannot afford to give away a spot anymore. They need production.

I think Jasson Dominguez is my one exception. I think he’s pretty good. Maybe the Yankees have to make a midseason trade to replace him if he’s 2 WAR is your baseline. That’s basically an average position player. The Yankees would win 90 games if they had just 2024 Aaron Judge and average production everywhere else. They can and will do better at some positions, but give a ton away when they run a Verdugo or Hicks or Rizzo out there every season.

One big wrinkle: Giancarlo Stanton. He hasn’t been worth 2 fWAR since 2021. But, he’s not going anywhere. The Yankees just have to cross their fingers that his playoff success was a sign of things to come.

The Yankees can’t end up scrambling to find someone, anyone to play a position, even if it means signing someone like Carlos Santana or Paul Goldschmidt instead of trying to pull off a big trade. It also means building a real bench that can step in when someone inevitably gets hurt.

Sign Vlad Guerrero Jr.

Guerrero isn’t Soto. Few players are. But he’ll be a 27 year old free agent who can mash.

He’ll command a huge contract after the 2025 season, but not nearly as big as Soto’s. The Yankees farm system isn’t producing any big bats after Dominguez and maybe Spencer Jones any time soon. Guerrero may be their last opportunity during Peak Aaron Judge to add an elite bat.

Guerrero Jr’s free agency is why I’m not going to include Christian Walker or Pete Alonso in my next Yankees roadmap. They need a spot for him to play in 2026. They can’t give a first baseman a multi-year deal unless they can do a Cody Bellinger and play elsewhere.