Thoughts on the Yankees Ahead of the Playoffs

by EJ Fagan

October 3, 2024

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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.

Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.

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I’ve still got my hands full with a newborn, but I still get to watch baseball. Here are a few thoughts ahead of the ALDS. I’ll preview the series more thoroughly when we know which team the Yankees are facing off against, and how their pitching will line up.

• The 2024 Yankees are the best playoff team of the Aaron Boone era. That’s a weird thing to say given that they won 100+ games in 2018, 2019 and 2022, but this team feels stronger. The foundation of Soto, Judge and Cole is a lot stronger than the foundation of the 2018-2019 teams, and the 2022 team limped to the finish. Also, the playoff competition is way weaker. I think the Yankees are clear favorites to win the pennant, even if the playoffs are still a crapshoot.

  
  

• This team lives or dies by Soto and Judge. Soto hit .343/.500/.600 over his last two weeks, which would be impressive had Judge not hit .333/.500/.849. Other than them, only Gleyber Torres and maybe Stanton ended the season hitting well. But having the two best hitters in baseball might be enough, if the Yankees can punish teams for pitching around them.

  
  

• No lefties, please. Corbin Burnes is a Cy Young contender, but I’d rather that the Yankees face him than the worst lefties in the playoffs. Cole Ragans and Framber Valdez scare the crap out of me, especially in a 5-game series. Pretty much everyone other than the Astros have a bunch of lefty relievers that could make their life hard too. If the Yankees get beat by lefties in the postseason, Brian Cashman deserves a ton of criticism for not finding someone at the trade deadline. As I said at the time, Jazz Chisholm was a great trade, but not necessarily the trade they needed.

  
  

• Is Austin Wells okay? Wells quietly had an absolutely awful September: .111/.217/.194. Catchers wear down (see Rutschman, Adley), so it shouldn’t be surprising. It’s criminal that the Yankees did not give him a lot more time off during the month to rest. Hopefully the week off will be good for him. The Yankees need a cleanup hitter. They might even want to sub in Chisholm for now.

  
  

• The bullpen has been quietly elite. Yankee relievers posted a 2.74 ERA over the last two weeks, good for 6th in baseball. Luke Weaver allowed just two runs over his last 19 2/3 innings, in part due to a tweak that added a tick to his fastball. Tim Hill posted a crazy 2.05 ERA as a Yankee despite a sub-4 K/9. Tommy Kahnle posted the lowest ERA of his career. If one more guy steps up (a healthy Cousins, Hamilton, maybe a reinvigorated Holmes), they’ll be good enough for the playoffs.

  
  

• Oswaldo should play. Rice proved that he has a MLB future by pounding Triple-A pitching after being sent down, but for now Cabrera is the safe pick. His OPS against righties is well over .700 on the season and closer to .800 in the second half. Maybe Rice will find it in the majors, but for now give me the safe pick.

That’s it for now! Let’s hope that the Tigers can knock out of the Astros. (Editor's note - THEY DID!)