This Yankee Weakness Must Change for Playoff Success
By Derek McAdam
October 9, 2024
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The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals are tied at one game apiece in the ALDS, and the next two games will be in Missouri. Through the first two games, there have been some positive things to see — including Alex Vertigo’s play and the Yankee bullpen holding it down in Game 2 — while there have also been some negatives.
But one of the most glaring negative traits I have seen from this team so far is their inability to score runs in the 1st inning. In both games, Gleyber Torres and Juan Soto were able to reach base with no outs, to which Judge struck out in both scenarios. Austin Wells and Giancarlo Stanton would either strike out or fail to advance runners.
And while it is only the 1st inning, with eight more innings left to play, it seems as if the Yankees are setting themselves up for failure with this trend. Through the first two games, the Yankees have stranded 19 runners compared to the Royals’ 14. Four of those runs the Yankees stranded came in the 1st innings.
The biggest issue with not scoring runs in the 1st inning is a huge momentum shift for both teams, with the Royals going in a positive direction and the Yankees in a negative. And yes, the Yankees did get on the board first in the second game, but they could have set the tone early on in the 1st inning.
When the Yankees scored their first and only run during Game 2 in the 3rd inning, Carlos Rodon only had a one-run cushion, which likely added to the pressure. Even if the Yankees scored one of those runs in the 1st, a two-run lead may have changed his pitching approach. And we see how the 4th inning went for Rodon Tuesday night: disastrous.
What about the first game? If the Yankees are able to at least get a sacrifice fly, the game is not full of lead changes between the two teams, but more of just the Yankees losing their lead to the game becoming tied. They would still be in control of the game.
While the Yankees are a much better come-from-behind team this year compared to last year, they cannot rely on that to propel them to victories. If multiple runners get on base with no one out, at least one runner should score, and hopefully more.
In both of these scenarios, it starts with Judge. As I mentioned, he struck out in both 1st innings. Even if he is able to put the ball into play with a fly ball to the outfield, it is likely that Torres could have either scored in Game 1 or at least moved to third base in Game 2. But not advancing the runners, and keeping the likely AL MVP from doing any damage, is a huge momentum swing for Kansas City.
Wells is nowhere near an offensive threat as Judge is and Stanton cannot hit any fastball that seems to be more than 95 MPH, which the majority of MLB starters today can easily throw.
But more than anything, the 1st inning woes almost serve as a “buzzkill” for the Yankee Stadium crowds. And that is not to say that they were not loud after the 1st inning, because they absolutely were. But after the Royals were quickly retired to start both games, the fans want to see the Yankees’ offense do their job after solid performances by Gerrit Cole and Rodon.
However, the script can turn in Kansas City if the Yankees are able to take advantage of getting runners on in the 1st. Scoring quick runs will temporarily put the crowd and ease and give the Yankees a big momentum boost. It can also go the other direction…
If the Yankees are unable to score runs in the 1st with runners on, I feel as if it will be downhill for the Yankees from that point on. And while the Yankees, statistically, had a better season on the road, this will likely be the loudest crowd they have faced this season, or at least one of them. And these next two games could be the determining factor over whether their season continues or ends.
Changing this trend can make a difference between the Yankees making a playoff run and being eliminated by the Royals. They have another chance to set the tone in Kansas City and must do so by taking advantage of runners being on base early in games. Let’s see if that changes.
a couple things
one, in case nobody was watching, the very obvious was stated in one of our playoff preview threads-
fair or otherwise, it really all comes down to Judge. when you sign for 40 mill a year, that is what you sign up for. your teammates are definitely supposed to help and to chip in, but you are the guy who is supposed to carry the mail
the Yankees are getting decent contributions from the other guys. if Judge can get going (and the Yankees have been THE BEST road team in all of baseball, so maybe a lil ol road trip will be just the ticket??), the Yankees stand to be in very good shape going forward…
It's not just the first inning. In 18 innings, the Yankees have left 19 men on base and batted 3-for-19 with runners in scoring position. This is EXACTLY how they managed to go 11-24 from mid-June through July.
It is also EXACTLY the point I was making for the entire second half of the year. The 49-21 start would be meaningless in the post-season. "But oh noes, Prof, they have the bestest record in the AL. Why are you carings so much about the RISPies and LOBbies?" Seems like my concerns were exceedingly well founded.
To prevail in the DS, they will have to play at least .600 baseball. Right now, they look like a .400 team again.
Sluggers like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are very streaky home run hitters. What makes them streaky is they get into "grooves" in which they are "locked in". While they are in these "grooves", they are seeing the ball better, they have a better sense of the strike zone, a better swing, a better stance (better mechanics for the last two, in other words), and most of all, their TIMING is at its peak. With the bye, even if Judge played all 10 of the last 10 games of the regular season, his TIMING is off (as is Stanton's and other sluggers) and it takes a while to get it back. Other hitters are cut from a different cloth…
This is the long form way of saying Aaron Judge must start producing when scoring opportunities arise or the Yankees are toast.
fersure, the team needs its captain to play big and deliver the good news
early and late