Thinking About the Juan Soto Contract

By Derek McAdam

October 23, 2024

***

The New York Yankees have had a very interesting 2024 season, to say the least. It began approximately 11 months ago when Brian Cashman completed a rare trade with the Boston Red Sox to acquire Alex Verdugo, who was slated to fill in one of the outfield gaps. However, Cashman was just getting started.

Just a few days later, the talks of the Yankees acquiring Juan Soto were heating up, and it seemed as if there was a very good chance he would play in a Yankee uniform for the upcoming season. The only question was who was headed to San Diego as part of the trade? And while losing five players, with Michael King being the main piece, it was well worth it in the end, as we are currently seeing.

Soto’s consistency as the second hitter in the lineup, paired with Aaron Judge batting right after him, gave the Yankees a completely new identity. Judge was being walked so many times, and for good reason, in seasons past. And the main reason was because there was no one in front or behind him that was a threat. Pitchers would rather take their chances with the next batter than to deal with Judge, and most of the time, that decision would pay off.

Not only did Judge have another 50 home run season, but Soto also had 41 of his own, a personal record for a single season. These two carried the offense for the majority of the season and created, arguably, the most dominant offensive duo of the 2024 season.

And while Judge has not performed his best in the post-season, Soto has stepped up to the plate and delivered when it was needed most, especially with his series-clinching 10th inning home run in Game 5 to send the Yankees to the World Series. Had it not been for Giancarlo Stanton’s incredible series with his several home runs, Soto would have been named the ALCS MVP.

As the case has been all season long, Soto’s free agency has been a talking point throughout the playoffs. And with the New York Mets being eliminated from the post-season, combined with the consistent rumors throughout the season, there is a lot of buzz regarding Steve Cohen potentially busting out his checkbook for Soto during the off-season. Some reports have said that Soto could get Shohei Ohtani money ($700 million), although it would be over the course of several more years than Ohtani’s 10.

If Soto were to receive that kind of money without any deferrals, I would take an issue with this. First, the Yankees have continued to deny the fact that long-term deals usually don’t work out in the end. And most players would rather take a little less money and more years on their contracts, especially to lock in a full pension, Soto is likely going to get both a long-term deal and a very high AAV deal.

Looking at some of the current long-term deals the Yankees have is only a start. Judge still has seven years on his contract, and while he is still performing well, he’s set to turn 33 in April. Stanton still has four years on his contract. Again, he is performing well in the playoffs, but his regular season performances weren’t spectacular and he turns 35 next month.

Gerrit Cole is also 34 and, potentially, has four or five years remaining on his contract, depending on what he decides to do this off-season. He’s still pitching well for the Yankees, but I’m curious to see how he develops as he grows older and loses velocity. Retaining Soto on a long-term deal is going to have a lot of question marks towards the end of the deal, as do most long-term contracts.

Here’s my biggest issue if the Yankees were to retain Soto for an astronomical figure: they won’t be able to retain many upcoming free agents. Some of the big names include Gleyber Torres, Tommy Kahnle, Tim Hill, Clay Holmes, and Verdugo. Meanwhile, Cole has an opt-out and Anthony Rizzo and Luke Weaver have club options.

I doubt that the Yankees have any intentions of re-signing Holmes or even Verdugo, unless Soto signs elsewhere, but Torres is making a strong case for the Yankees to keep him. He has been electric in the leadoff role for the last couple of months and has seen a defensive improvement. If the Yankees sign Soto, I can’t picture Torres in a Yankee uniform next season. And what about next off-season’s losses? The Yankees will likely see most of those free agents walk because they won’t be able to afford them.

However, my biggest concern is that the Yankees lose in the World Series and as a desperation measure to try and go for it all again in 2025, they overpay for Soto. But if the Yankees were to win, Hal Steinbrenner and Cashman may not have a reason (in their eyes) to keep Soto. After all, trading for him was the clearest move that the Yankees were in “win now” mode. The fans get their championship, Soto improves his resume and gets even more money, and everyone is happy. At least according to Cashman and Steinbrenner.

In the heat of the moment, it is very easy to get too excited over a clutch hit or home run, such as Soto’s in Game 5. After all, it did clinch the Yankees their first World Series berth since 2009. It’s a very big accomplishment for the franchise and its fans. However, fans cannot get too caught up in this hype, especially since the Yankees still have one more hill to climb.

I must disclose that I hope the Yankees can retain Soto. He turns 26 on Friday and still has a lot of his career to go. And I understand that it will take a lot of money to convince him to stay in the Bronx. I’m prepared for his payday to be well north of $500 million. But the Yankees cannot bet against themselves, as they previously did with Cole.

But let’s see how everything plays out…