by EJ Fagan
August 14, 2024
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NOTE: The following comes from EJ Fagan's substack page and is shared with permission. This was published a few days ago so the stats don't include the last few games.
Please check out EJ's substack page for more great articles.
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It’s ALCS Day! I hope you are as excited as I am.
Very cool but unrelated note: My book, The Thinkers: The Rise of Partisan Think Tanks and the Polarization of American Politics, is now available for pre-order an audio book! Out on October 22nd.
For the first time since probably 2012, the Yankees are clear favorites when they begin the American League Championship Series. The betting markets are giving them about a 2 in 3 chance to win the series. That still leaves 1 out of 3 times where the Guardians win, but the Yankees are in as good of a position as it gets.
Why are the Yankees the favorites? I’d point to a few big picture factors:
The Guardians have struggled in the second half, going just 34-32.
The Wild Card Series and ALDS required the Guardians to overuse their top relief pitching.
The Yankees are overall a more talented roster, with better much better overall hitting an starting pitching.
The Yankees are well rested and, mostly healthy.
The Yankees hitters match up well agains the mostly right-handed Guardians.
But, I’ve been spending way too much time between newborn feedings looking at individual players on both teams, and I have some additional thoughts. Some good, some bad:
Juan Soto is Injured
It’s been a rough two months for Soto. He hit just .286/.389/.357 in the ALDS, and looked off at times. His game log reveals a pretty stark decline since mid-August. He hit 3 home runs against the White Sox on August 13th. Since then, he’s hit just .232/.374/.451. That’s still a pretty good batting line, but it’s not Juan Soto. Here’s the full season moving average:
That’s a pretty stark discontinuity. although Soto has still been a very productive player in his diminished state. Pending free agents don’t like to talk about their injuries, but I bet we hear about something after he signs the big contract. Maybe Soto should just take a rest day every now and again. I hope that the light postseason schedule so far helps him get back to his elite baseline.
Carlos Rodon Should Not Start Game 1
If the Yankees lose this series, I think that the decision to start Rodon over Schmidt in Game 1 is going to loom large. The Yankees were considering going with Schmidt, but opted not to change up their rotation.
Rodon has been, objectively, the worst Yankee starting pitcher in 2024. He posted a very average 3.96 ERA over 175 innings with very average underlying numbers.
Lots of yuck there, although the trends reveal a slightly brighter story:
Rodon didn’t allow a ton of runs in the early part of the season, but was probably getting lucky per xFIP. His bad luck caught up to him in June and July. Then, after an All Star Break mechanical Tweak, Rodon improved considerably both in expected and actual results. All of that nets out to: Rodon is an okay mid-rotation starter, but far from a real #2.
At the same time, Cleveland has huge lefty/righty splits. They hit a well above-average .252/.324/.427 against left-handed pitchers and a below average .233/.301/.383 against right-handed pitchers.
If I were the Yankees, I would have started Schmidt in Game 1 and Gil in Game 3, giving only one start to Carlos Rodon. Now, they are locked into two Rodon games.
Move Austin Wells Down in the Order
The Yankees season arguably turned around when the Yankees moved Austin Wells to bat cleanup on July 20th. After a slow start caused by poor batted ball luck, Wells had been hitting a strong .232/.357/.478 since June 1st. After being moved up, he punished teams who tried to pitch around Aaron Judge with a .295/.369/.511 batting line through September 9th.
Then, something happened. Like Soto, my bet is on some kind of injury, or at least catcher wear-and-tear. Wells hit an abysmal .083/.196/.125 after the 9th, and had just two singles an two walks in the ALDS. To make matters worse, he looks lost at the plate.
Cleanup is a crucial lineup spot for the Yankees. If the Yankees fill it with a black hole, Aaron Judge will rarely get a chance to hit. Giancarlo Stanton is doing great in the 5th spot, but for lefty/righty reasons shouldn’t move up.
The obvious solution is to bat Jazz Chisholm Jr. 4th, moving Austin Wells to 6th or 8th. Chisholm didn’t exactly mash in the ALDS, but did hit a home run. He hit an impressive .273/.325/.500 for the Yankees. His September numbers aren’t great, but are better than Wells.
My Pick to Click is Anthony Volpe
Just as I was about to hit publish, I saw this figure from Mike Petriello on Twitter. Volpe swung a lot harder in the ALDS:
Volpe’s swing changes were a major story this offseason. He shorted his swing, generating more contact but less power. The result was pretty bad:
Volpe was such a great shortstop that he’s still a 3+ win player, but his noodle bat is disappointing. Volpe was a great hitter in the minors, not an Alcides Esocbar. He may also have worn down a bit during the long season like other shortstops.
He then hit .250/.438/.250 during the ALDS. His at-bats looked great, like they did in April. He swung less often, worked the count and drew four walks. When he did swing, he swung hard.
It was a little puzzling to watch Volpe going from a premium count-worker who got a promotion to leadoff early in the season to a free swinger who was good for a single at best. Maybe he’s going back to a more selective approach.
it seems like almost everyone, I am definitely included, agrees that we do not want Judge and Stanton back to back
well, now that Stanton is looking DANGEROUS (I would have used bigger capitals if somehow i knew how), what about putting Gleyber and Judge back to back, YES, I am suggesting a flip of Soto and Judge. nobody can protect Judge like Soto can and with Stanton looking a bit Ruthian, he can protect Mr Soto
VERY VERY OBVIOUSLY, Boone does not have the kind of creativity and courage it takes to make such a significant change in the ALCS. will we see some minor tweak that does not really offer much to Judge in terms of real protection…
To me, adding Stroman over any other reliever on the 40, tells me that Rodon is on a short leash.
Flipping Jazz and Wells is a thought (writing this comment before I've seen the lineup), I just don't want Stanton hitting directly behind Judge.
I've spoken enough about the struggles of Volpe, so maybe having a couple of days help him to keep himself on the straight in the box.
But I'm real curious what Luis Gil is going to do since it will be just about 3 weeks between appearances for him. Will the rest help him, or will it show the rust?
Is Rizzo being activated to be the starting 1B, and if so, will that free Cabrera…
Stroman, Rizzo on ALCS roster; Rice, Ellis off.
not likely merely injured, it's quite probable that Soto is dead
I suspect that making repeated attempts to provide good defense in right field has taken a toll.
when he almost slid into a wall and actually grazed a leg, it may well have been more than he could bear
but the guy has clearly demonstrated an enormous will to soldier on
and the organization should not allow his unfortunate demise to prevent signing him to the 33 year, $2,000,000,000 contract that is no more than his due.
he the gamiest gamer evah!!!
Actually, the Guardians didn't have to play in a Wild Card Series, as they received a BYE, just like the Yankees did.
Any injury he may have, like when he ran into the wall in Seattle, he has had plenty of time to rest that injury and plenty of time for the injury to heal between the "bye" and a significant layover between the end of the ALDS and the start of the ALCS. With all the recent "time off" the Yankees have had lately, and they have had plenty of it, he should be reasonable "healed" by now, as lon…