The Tuesday Discussion: The Starting Rotation

August 13, 2024

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This week we asked our writers to respond to the following:

Here are (as of Monday morning) the Yankees 2024 starting pitchers ranked by ERA+:

Luis Gil 137

Marcus Stroman 105

Carlos Rodon 100

Nestor Cortes 95

Gerrit Cole 90

How will these five rank (in order) at season's end?

Here are their replies:

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Derek McAdam - I think there’s a couple of slight changes that will occur before the end of the season. I think Gil finishes at the top, but Rodon slides into 2nd place with Cole behind him. Stroman and Cortes will then finish out the list at 4th and 5th places, respectively. 

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Andy Singer - I think they'll rank as follows:

Luis Gil

Gerrit Cole

Carlos Rodon

Nestor Cortes

Marcus Stroman

Gil is absolutely electric, though I have significant concerns regarding his workload.  That being said, he would have to have a serious fall from grace in order to lose his hold over the top spot.  For the first time all season, I thought Cole looked healthy in his last start, including a return to an arm slot that more closely resembles the guy we saw last season.  If Cole is back to being an ace, his ERA+ will rise quickly.  Rodon also appears to have righted the ship, and I trust that his season-end ERA+ will look solid.  I have less faith in both Nestor and Stroman, but Stroman lives on far thinner margins than Nestor.  Stroman had his absolute A+ command on Sunday, and while that was enough to piece together a good start, I'm not sure Stroman can get the job done with even his "B" command with his current stuff.  Nestor has more left in the tank, but it's going to be an uphill climb for him to get right in time for the playoffs.

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Paul Semendinger - (I have to reply quickly here...)

1. Carlos Rodon

2. Luis Gil

3. Gerrit Cole

4. Marcus Stroman

5. Nestor Cortes

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Cary Greene - The Yankees rotation certainly has been a mixed bag of unpredictability this season. I've written each offseason over the past few years that as the innings piled up, so too would the wear and tear on Gerrit Cole's arm. Unfortunately, this has become a reality this season and now the Yankees have to manage the staff's ace very carefully to maximize the chances that he'll be ready for the postseason. After making three rehab starts, Cole has now made nine starts for the Yankees since returning from the DL with a very concerning nerve inflammation and edema in his right elbow that had sidelined him since spring training, pitching to a 4.70 ERA over this stretch. However, over his last five starts he's looked really locked in and the results are much better as he's pitched to a 3.45 ERA. 

Therefore, I'm hedging my bet here, believing that Cole will only get sharper and better as he goes along. He's the horse of the Yankees staff and this season represents a massive opportunity for the Yankees to roll to the World Series if all goes well and it's the pitching staff that will need to carry them there if it is to happen. The Yankees have managed a team ERA+ of 111 largely without the benefit of having Cole as the tip of the pinstriped spear. I expect Cole to impact the team in a big way going forward and by season's end, I think Cole will wind up posting an ERA+ of 115, while resuming his ace like ways. 

Luis Gil has turned into a superstar this season. It's hard to imagine that Brian Cashman needed an injury to Cole in order to give Gil a chance at showing what he could do. Well I think all questions have been answered, his stuff is elite according to StatCast and as can be expected with any young rookie pitcher, he's had some inconsistencies as he's dealt with by far the heaviest workload of his career. In 2019, Gil pitched 96 innings which was the most innings he'd ever tossed until this season. Barring any injuries to any of the other Yankees starters, I imagine the Yankees will scale his workload back a bit when Clarke Schmidt finally returns to the rotation. It seems like it would be foolish to disrupt Gil's current routine and move him to the bullpen, but seeing as how we are discussing the Yankees, I wouldn't put it past them to mismanage Gil like that. He's built up better than he ever has been before and he's doing fine. 

Luis Gil needs to continue to start, he's the Yankees best starter currently (the injured Clarke Schmidt has a 167 ERA+, so taking nothing away from what he did earlier in the season when he was healthy). I think Gil will continue to dominate, his control has vastly improved this season and he looks really good when he takes the hill. Over his last five outings, Gil is sporting a 1.93 ERA and opposing hitters are batting only .196 against him. I think Gil could wind up with a 150 ERA+ this season, if the Yankees leave him alone. 

Carlos Rodon has been nothing if not mercurial so far this season. Just when I think he's turning the corner, he turns in a clunker and just when I'm about to write him off, he dominates the Rangers while out dueling Nathan Eovaldi. Rodon is 4-0 over his last four starts and he's pitched to a 2.54 ERA during this span, with opposing hitters batting .167 against him. I've watched his most recent couple of starts and I've been noticing his pitch location, which is pretty masterful of late. He's struck out 38 batters during this stretch, encompassing 28.1 innings. I have a feeling Rodon is going to maintain this performance and ride the momentum right into the playoffs. It's hard not to respect the hard work he's put in this season and the adjustments he's been making to his pitch usage and location are a big reason why. He's using his 4-seamer a lot less and he's keeping batters off balance by trusting his curveball and throwing it for strikes. His slider, as it usually is, remains close to unhittable as well. In short, Rodon is becoming more of a pitcher than he was last season and the results are paying dividends. I think he'll improve his ERA+ to 110 by the end of the season. 

Marcus Stroman has certainly been plucky in what is his first full season with the Yankees. He seems to enjoy pitching for the Yankees and though he's been ineffective at times this season, to his credit, he always seems to rebound after a bad start or three <chuckling.> It's true that there is very little to like about Stroman's StatCast metrics and it's probably also true that he's a back of the rotation starter these days, at best. His last five starts have been a mixed bag and I don't see him improving from now until the end of the season as his stuff just isn't that good. Therefore, I think he'll fizzle out a bit and wind up with a 97 ERA+ on the season. 

Lastly, Nestor Cortes has been by far the Yankees biggest disappointment this season and it's no secret that Brian Cashman would have loved nothing more to move on from Nasty Nestor if he could have succeeded in trading for a starter who would have been an upgrade. When Clarke Schmidt returns, presuming all other starters are healthy, Cortes might be used as a spot starter or a swingman out of the bullpen for the duration of the season. Cortes has fallen off badly from where he was only a few seasons ago. He also seems to have lost confidence on the mound as he doesn't even look the same pitcher that took New York by storm during the first half of 2022, enroute to his first and only All-Star appearance. The StatCast data says that Nestor Cortes is no longer an effective starter and it's a cryin' shame because he happens to be my favorite Yankee. He also leads the team in innings pitched this season, so perhaps the workload just wore him down again, the same as has done the past three seasons and counting. 

Cortes will enter his final season of arbitration eligibility next season and I'll be kind of surprised if he's still wearing pinstripes by the end of the coming offseason. I have nothing which to draw on, no data whatsoever, that suggests Cortes will suddenly start pitching well again. I think it's time for the Yankees to put him out to pasture at their convenience, so I predict Cortes will finish the season likely injured, with an ERA+ of 88.