The Tuesday Discussion: Roki Sasaki

January 14, 2024

***

EDITOR'S NOTE - Please understand that we ask these questions at least a day in advance of publication to provide our writers with time to respond. After sending the question and gathering responses, newer information came out about where Roki Sasaki will not play in 2025. The answers below are not in the order in which we recieved them, some answers came before Sasaki's announcements.

***

This week we asked our writers to reply to the following:

Make A Prediction:  What team will Roki Sasaki sign with?

Here are their responses...

***

James Vlietstra - All the chatter on X is that it’s going to be the Dodgers. Lots of people with connections to international free agents are complaining that he’s going to hold the entire process hostage. 

My guess is that he’s got it narrowed down to 3-4 teams and they know if they are in it.  I am going to pull some names out of a hat and say Dodgers 40%, Mariners 25%, Yankees 20%, Giants 15%. 

***

Paul Semendinger - Let's go Yankees. I am just hoping... (NOTE - I was wrong, it seems. I'll now say the Dodgers because they get everyone they want.)

***

Ethan Semendinger - Within hours of the weekly e-mail going out about the Tuesday Discussion, Roki Sasaki and his agency went on a spree of announcing who isn't going to win his services. Of note, these teams are officially OUT (tweets linked):

San Francisco Giants, New York Yankees, Texas Rangers, Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs.

The finalists- as listed by Jeff Passan- are the Toronto Blue Jays, San Diego Padres, and Los Angeles Dodgers.

He's a Dodger. It's been clear since Ohtani and Yamamoto went there. All this pomp and circumstance was just due diligence and proper rule following for the system. Maybe a different team could've "wowed" Sasaki, but the Dodgers were already starting the run halfway through the course.

***

Andrew Hefner - With the recent news of the Yankees, Mets, and Rangers being out on Sasaki, it seems that it comes down to three options:

1. Dodgers: I don't think he will ultimately end up signing here as he previously stated he would prefer a smaller market, plus he would have to bear constant overshadowing from Ohtani and Yamamoto back home in Japan. 

2. Blue Jays: The Jays have been "in" on every big free agent for the past 2 years. Let's be real... it's not going to actually happen this time. 

3. Padres: My final prediction would be the Padres simply because it checks most of (if not all) of the boxes Roki has set thus far. They have a small(ish) market compared to the other teams reportedly involved in talks with him, Sasaki will have a veteran Japanese pitcher in Yu Darvish to coach him along, and he will have the space to grow and become a real star without fear of being overshadowed.

***

Cary Greene - Sasaki will likely sign with the Dodgers, the main reason right now is that they're the best on the West coast at developing pitchers. The Giants and Padres simply can't match the Dodgers. Side benefits are also evident as the Dodgers have a number of Pacific rim stars who can help Sasaki as he makes the jump to MLB while at the same time, joining a star studded rotation takes the pressure off him as he develops. Not to mention, LA is primed to win more championships in the next decade and they have the bank account to sign or extend Sasaki - which makes LA a one stop location that can not only help Sasaki develop in the short term, but they can also provide the perfect home away from home where he can hang his hat throughout his career. Joining the Dodgers makes Sasaki more marketable back home in Japan as well, as the Dodgers are clearly Japan's team.

Yankees fans are hoping that Sasaki will sign with their team but I believe that this has been a done deal for some time now, as evidenced by the Dodgers recently letting their top International Amateur targets sign elsewhere, in an attempt to free up International Bonus Pool funding so they can provide Sasaki with a best possible compensation package. Meanwhile, Sasaki is going through a process of dotting his i's and crossing his t's before he commits to the plan he's had all along - which is why he didn't want any of the teams to bring any of their players to their organizational presentation meetings. Sasaki clearly wanted to look closely at which organization is best equipped to help put him in position for a massive payday when he becomes a free agent in two year's time.

Sassaki will likely be a Dodger for life, which is why I'm prepared to root against him for as long as I continue to be a baseball fan. I'm not falling for all the pomp and circumstance surrounding the courtship of Sasaki.

*** Derek McAdam - Like many of the recent Japanese stars to come over to the United States, I tink Sasaki will also make the ultimate decision to stay on the West Coast. However, I don’t think he will join Shohei Ohtani with the Los Angeles Dodgers, but will instead call San Diego his home for the next few years.

***

Ed Botti - I am not into predictions that much, but my gut is telling me he will end up on a west coast team, and I am thinking the Giants are right at the top of that list.

***

Andy Singer - Well, I can tell you who isn't getting Sasaki, unfortunately. I was really hoping that the Yankees would be able to score a huge win by getting Sasaki, which could have freed up someone from the rotation as a potential trade piece for a better infielder...unfortunately, that plan does not seem to be in the cards.

I'm reasonably sick of watching the Dodgers grab every high-ceiling player that comes from Japan, and I'd like to see some parity out West...oh, and I really don't want to face Sasaki 25-35 times per year, so as great as it would be for baseball, selfishly I don't want to see Sasaki wind up in Toronto. My prediction? He pairs with Yu Darvish in the Padres' rotation, which instantly gives that team a huge boost.