August 6, 2024
***
This week we asked our writers a different type of question.
In 1961, Roger Maris (61) and Mickey Mantle (54) combined for 115 home runs. This year, thus far, Aaron Judge has 41 homers and Juan Soto has 28.
How close will Judge and Soto get to Maris and Mantle?
Here are their responses:
***
James Vlietstra - As we have seen recently, Judge is going to get the Bonds treatment and see fewer and fewer pitches to hit. With that said, I still see Judge challenging his record. He certainly can hit between 60-65 on the season, especially if he gets any protection.
Soto has been having a tremendous season and could easily reach 45 home runs.
As good as that is, it’s still only 110. I do not see them surpassing the total of 115.
***
Cary Greene - I think Judge might hit 58 and I think Soto will hit about 45 this year. If I'm right, the pair will come up 12 short.
***
Tim Kabel - I believe that Judge and Soto will come up short and not equal the home run total of Maris and Mantle. I think they will have a total of 99 home runs missing the mark set in 1961 by 12 home runs. They are currently at 69. The breakdown of the final 30 will be 23 more for Judge, giving him a total of 64 and, seven more for Soto, giving him a total of 35.
***
Mike Whiteman - My crystal ball tells me that Judge and Soto end up with 95 home runs between them, breaking down to 55 for Judge, and 40 for Soto.
***
Paul Semendinger - If we take each's best home run season: Judge gets 62, Soto would have 35. That doesn't get them there. If Judge his 70 homers (why not?) (I'm not saying he will, I'm saying IF), Soto would still need 45. Is it possible? Yes. Is it probable? No.
I'll be thrilled if they combine to reach 100 homers. That would be awesome!
***
Andy Singer - I predicted prior to this season that the combination of Judge and Soto would hit 100 homers. Why back off of that now? I think Judge will get to 60 homers, and even with a sore wrist/hand, I think Soto can manage 12 more homers between this month and next. An even 100 home runs will bring them 15 shy of Maris and Mantle, but that would still be one heck of an achievement. Lost in this discussion is the fact that as good as Mantle and Maris were in 1961, Judge's 2024 season might end up being even better than the Mick's, and Soto is a much more well-rounded ballplayer than Maris. It is entirely possible that Soto and Judge's 2024 season is the best season any Yankee duo has produced since Ruth and Gehrig. Now that's incredible.
Just for reference, in '61, Maris averaged 1 home run every 9.67 at bats, while Mickey averaged 1 every 9.51 at bats. This year, Judge is averaging 1 every 9.63 AB.
When the Yankees first acquired Giancarlo Stanton from Miami, Aaron Judge was coming off his 52 homer rookie season, and Stanton was coming off his 59 homer season. Their first year together, I fully expected that the Judge/Stanton duo would top the Mantle/Maris duo, but I didn't anticipate how injury prone Stanton would be, or the drop off in offensive production he's had since his amazing 59 homer season.
I would still go with Mantle and Maris. Soto, until last year, wasn't primarily a homerun hitter. The 35 he hit last year was his most prolific homerun season. Soto walks a lot, gets on base a lot, gets hits to all fields a lot, in addition to hitting homers. So I can never see Soto at the top of the homerun leader board, and he is not the type of lefthanded homerun hitter who benefits from playing home games at Yankee Stadium because his homers are hit over all parts of the outfield fence, right, left, and center. Homers have never been the main component of Soto's game. So I would leave the combined record to Mantle and …
I just hope it makes Soto want to resign!
I gotta agree with Andy that 100 is the magic number. But I think even that number is going to be much harder now, because I think Soto is going to bunt for more hits, to give Judge a chance to swing the bat, and Wells is going to need to keep hitting behind him, or if Stanton goes on a hot streak, slotting him in behind Judge.
Too bad Manfred isn't going to do anything about the Walk-a-Judge, even just by making a comment that fans aren't paying good money in this economy to watch Judge walk.