September 20, 2022
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We decided to have some fun this week with some quick and simple predictions. We sent the following to our writers:
We're at the point where the pressure of what's to come will make the final weeks interesting.
Let's make some simple predictions:
How many home runs will Aaron Judge end the season with?
How many wins will the Yankees end with?
Who will be the American League Wild Card teams?
And two from the rest of the MLB...
Will Albert Pujols reach 700 homers?
Will Paul Goldschmidt win the Triple Crown?
Who will the NL Wild Card teams be?
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Paul Semendinger:
Judge ends the year with 64 homers.
The Yankees will have 95 wins
The A.L. Wild Card teams will be the Rays, the Jays, and the Mariners
Pujols will end with 702 homers
Paul Goldschmidt will not win the Triple Crown.
The N.L. Wild Cards will be the Braves, the Phillies, and the Padres.
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James Vlietstra:
Judge…64 Homers
Yankees…97 wins
AL wildcard…Tampa, Toronto, Seattle
Pujols…yes
Goldschmidt… no
NL Wildcard…Mets, Brewers, Padres
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Lincoln Mitchell:
How many home runs will Aaron Judge end the season with?-63
How many wins will the Yankees end with?-97
Who will be the American League Wild Card teams? Blue Jays, Rays, Mariners
Will Albert Pujols reach 700 homers? I wish I could say yes, but I have a feeling he will come up a little short.
Will Paul Goldschmidt win the Triple Crown? No, and it won’t be very close.
Who will the NL Wild Card teams be? Braves, Padres, Phillies
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Cary Greene:
How many home runs will Aaron Judge end the season with? - 65
How many wins will the Yankees end with? - 98
Who will be the American League Wild Card teams? - Rays and Blue Jays
Will Albert Pujols reach 700 homers? - No
Will Paul Goldschmidt win the Triple Crown? - No
Who will the NL Wild Card teams be? - Braves, Padres, Brewers
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Ed Botti:
How many home runs will Aaron Judge end the season with? Based his average HR per game (.4041) and estimating he will play in 12 of the final 16 games, I project 64 Home Runs.
How many wins will the Yankees end with? I project an 8-8 record over the final 16 games, bringing the season total to 96 Wins.
Who will be the American League Wild Card teams? Seattle, Toronto and Tampa Bay ( I would like to say Baltimore, but their first half was too much to overcome. But, they are a team on the rise in 2023).
Will Albert Pujols reach 700 homers? Pujols has 698 Home Runs and the Cardinals have 13 games remaining, I believe he will hit 700.
Will Paul Goldschmidt win the Triple Crown? He has a shot at batting average and RBI, but I do not think he will overcome Kyle Schwarber for the most home runs. He trails by 4.
Who will the NL Wild Card teams be? I believe Atlanta will catch the Mets and win the NL East and Milwaukee will catch the Phillies for a wild card. My NL Wild cards are Mets, San Diego and Milwaukee.
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Tamar Chalker:
How many home runs will Aaron Judge end the season with? 64
How many wins will the Yankees end with? 97
Who will be the American League Wild Card teams? Toronto, Tampa, Seattle
Will Albert Pujols reach 700 homers? Yes
Will Paul Goldschmidt win the Triple Crown? No
Who will the NL Wild Card teams be? Atlanta, Philly, Milwaukee
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Tim Kabel:
I predict Aaron Judge will hit 67 home runs. My preseason prediction was 54. People accuse me of drinking Kool-Aid. It was rather tasty.
I will stick with my original prediction that the Yankees will win 98 games.
The AL wildcard teams will be Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Seattle.
Albert Pujols will hit 700 home runs.
Paul Goldschmidt will not win the triple crown.
The NL wildcard teams will be the Mets, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee.
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Mike Whiteman:
Aaron Judge will end up with 66 home runs...and the Triple Crown
The Yankees will win 98 games
The Blue Jays, Rays and the.....White Sox will be AL Wild Cards
Albert Pujols will reach 701 home runs for his career
Paul Goldschmidt will not win the Triple Crown
The Mets, Phillies and Brewers will be NL Wild Cards
SABR's Table 5 seems to think the Yankees will win 97 games (Using opponents winning percentage cross referenced by the team in question's winning percentage. .603 vs .480 = an expected .610 winning percentage = 9.15 wins over remaining 15 games.
I'm going with 98 though, who knows!
98 w/o breaking a sweat
I'll play:
Judge HRs: 63 (As soon as he passes Maris Boone will sit him out a lot)
Yankee wins: 96
AL WC: Rays, Jays, M's
NL WC: Mets, Padres, Brewers
Pujols: Yes
Goldy: No