The Tuesday Discussion: Alonso for Jones?

June 18, 2024

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This is a question that is sure to generate much debate and discussion. easked our writers:

If you were the General Manager of the Yankees, would you trade Spencer Jones to the Mets for Pete Alonso to firm up first base and add a significant bat to the middle of the lineup?

Here are their replies:

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Ed Botti - Absolutely not. While Alonso is a good player, he is in his walk year, and will have a high price tag attached to signing him. Jones, regardless of whether or not you buy the hype,  is a legitimate prospect that has a high ceiling and could be an impact player for years to come. I don't think you trade for a 2 month rental with one of your top prospects,  especially when most of the executives in baseball believe Rizzo will bounce back,  you already have an option in the minors (Rice)  and your team is in first place.  Additionally, i seriously doubt the Mets would trade him cross town, or inter division. I'll pass.

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Tamar Chalker - No, I think Rizzo is showing some good signs that he will bounce back and the Yankees don’t need to give up a prospect like Jones for a short-term deal for Alonso. I don’t think he fills enough of a need at this point.

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James Vlietstra - I would consider trading an Oswald Peraza for Alonso, but an impact five tool player, with the pedigree and equity used on a first round pick has got to bring back a greater return than a 3 month rental. 

The team as currently constructed is good enough to make a deep playoff run. However, Jones could be traded for bullpen replacements if they determine Effross or Trivino will not be available. 

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Derek McAdam - I would not trade Jones to acquire Alonso at the trade deadline UNLESS the Yankees could agree to an extension almost instantly. However, extending Alonso would more than likely mean Juan Soto would walk. And while Alonso would be a decent pickup for the team, Soto should be the priority.

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Paul Semendinger - I have a good friend who is a big Mets fans and he's not enamored with Pete Alonso who reminds him of Dave Kingman.

That being said, I'd do it. Alonso would be a difference-maker. He would solve the problem at first base. He would lengthen the lineup. It would be a rental to try to win the World Series.

In 52 games in 2024, Spencer Jones has struck out 80 times - in Double-A. He has a long way to go to be Major League ready. The Yankees don't have that time to waste. Their time is now. It would also force Stanton lower down the batting order.

The Yankees need to make bold moves. People forget this, but in the 1950s, the Yankees would often go out and get the former big star who still had something in the tank to make them better for the stretch drive: Enos Slaughter, Johnny Mize, Jim Konstanty, Sal Maglie, and more... This would be that type of move - a move to absolutely, go for it. It would be like getting Cecil Fielder in 1996 or David Justice in 2000 - an absolute "WIN NOW" move.

1. Volpe -ss

2. Soto -rf

3. Judge -cf

4. Verdugo -lf

5. Alonso -1b

6. Stanton - dh

7. Torres - 2b

8. LeMahieu/Cabrera - 3b

9. Wells/Trevino - C

I know how much everyone disagreed with me on a different acquisition, but imagine that lineup with Luis Arraez at second base. I know his defense is bad, but has Gleyber Torres' been that much better? Arraez is batting .348 for the Padres. Oh Man. That upgrade, I am sure, more than makes up for his defense.

Imagine this lineup:

1. Arraez - 2b

2. Volpe - ss

3. Soto - rf

4. Judge - cf

5. Verdugo - lf

6. Alonso - 1b

7. Stanton - dh

8. LeMahieu/Cabrera - 3b

9. Wells/Trevino - c

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Patrick Gunn - The more I look at the numbers, the more tempted I get. Alonso is good for about 35-40 home runs a season and while he strikes out a bit, he’s not egregious (20.8 K% this year, about 22% for his career). He can also can draw a walk at an okay clip (8.6 BB% on the season, 9.8 BB% for his career). The main issue is he’s mainly an extra base hit guy and he’s nothing special defensively. This is more about what you think of Jones; I like his talent, but if the Yankees lock up Soto, there’s only one spot for Jones. I think I’d be willing to take the gamble on Alonso for this year if the Mets don’t ask for too many more prospects (although, with the way the Mets are playing, I don’t think they’re moving Alonso).

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Mike Whiteman - On the SSTN podcast, I expressed support for this deal, and still do. My caveat is that the team has to go all in elsewhere as well. 

Alonzo is one of the premier power hitters in the game, averaging about 40 home runs and 100 RBI per season. Replacing Anthony Rizzo's struggles with this level of production can make a really good lineup great. Dropping him in the fifth spot in the lineup (after Verdugo) allows the team to push Giancarlo Stanton to the six spot, where his current level of production is just fine. With this deal, the Yankee number one through six hitters arguably become the class of the sport. 

Dealing one of the team's top prospects for a few months of Alonzo is a big risk, not one I take lightly. If the team plans to continue to leave significant holes at second and third bases and sticks with the budget approach in the bullpen, then I wouldn't want to make this deal. If the Yanks commit to building a juggernaut by adding some arms to the pen and can upgrade another infield spot, I'm in on this trade. With numerous expiring contracts, the Yankees could look very different next year. If there is an opportunity to go for it now, do it. 

I'd first try to offer other prospects and avoid dealing Jones, but if that was the eventual price, I'd do it. 

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Tim Kabel - I would not trade Spencer Jones to the Mets for Peter Alonso. Due to the fact that Anthony Rizzo is hurt now, I would bring up Ben Rice immediately and let him play. He seems to be the likely successor for Rizzo anyway. It might be bringing him up a bit too soon, but I’d rather do that than sacrifice a top prospect for a rental player. I would trade Spencer Jones if I had to, but not for Peter Alonso. 

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Cary Greene - Admittedly, I may be the staunchest supporter of Anthony Rizzo to be found here at SSTN. I believe the chances are very high that Rizzo will begin playing at a much higher level in the not too distant future and I'm also fine with platooning Rizzo with DJ LeMahieu based on pitching matchups. Therefore, trading Spencer Jones, the organization's fourth most valuable trade chip, who is rated as being worth $38.8 MTV by Baseball Trade Values, for the Met's Pete Alonso (who is only worth $7.5 MTV) would obviously be such a bad trade that in a one-for-one trade, any GM who would agree to such a deal would certainly and promptly be relieved of his duties. 

However, for the fun of the discussion, I'm willing to place my hardline support of Rizzo in the parking lot as he is after all on the final year of his contract and while the Yankees do have a 2025 team option on the Riz, its presently looking like this will be his final season in the Bronx. Though Rizzo has championship pedigree and despite his tremendous clubhouse presence, let's imagine what a deal with Mets for Alonso would look like. 

From the Yankees perspective, they'd be taking on the prorated share of Alonso's $20.5 million 2024 contract, so a deal such as this would have CBT implications for Hal Steinbrenner to sort out and though I'm not sure Hal will be willing to increase his payroll, there is a creative solution to ease the Yankees luxury tax hit. The Mets would need to agree to take Rizzo as part of any deal. If the Mets were dead set on Spencer Jones as the centerpiece in an Alonso trade, then they'd have to pick up the prorated share of the $17 million presently owed to Rizzo. Given that Rizzo is valued at negative $12.7 MTV, the Mets would also need to kick in about $18.6 MTV to compel the Yankees to relinquish Jones so the question becomes - what do the Yankees need and what would the Mets be willing to give to make a deal like this work?

Considering that the Mets will likely do a typical large market rapid rebuild, Spencer Jones fits really nicely into their plans and I wouldn't blame them for targeting him in what would certainly be a Deadline blockbuster. Meanwhile, the Yankees are eyeing a championship and after that, they will need to focus on retaining Juan Soto while also keeping the payroll under control. Leading up to this year's Trade Deadline, upgrading the bullpen would seem to be the Yankees most important area of focus. 

Towards that end, the Yankees could target the scuttle the ship at the Deadline minded Mets righty high-leverage reliever Reed Garrett ($10.7 MTV) as I think Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake might be able to help Garrett - who has a devastating slider and splitter but has had some recent struggles due to a one dimensional fastball. Garrett reminds me very much of Clay Holmes when he was with the Pirates. I think the Yankees could tap into Blake's ability to help pitchers with spin rates and who knows, if Garrett introduces a Cutter he may become an elite back of the bullpen weapon. Garret would come with two and half years of team control so I think he'd fit in nicely with the Yankees plan to bring their payroll down. 

Obviously the Mets would be a bit lukewarm on the idea of giving up a high leverage reliever as part of this trade, but the price to obtain Spencer Jones necessitates not only this sacrificial kick-in, but the Mets would need to pony up even more value if this trade would have any chance of working out. This is where the road forks and divides in an Alonzo to the Yankees deal. It's important to acknowledge that the Yankees need help in the bullpen, and at first base or third base and they have very little CBT wiggle room, coupled with an Owner who likely wants to reduce payroll for 2025. Meanwhile,  the deep pocketed Mets are likely Deadline sellers committed to a rapid rebuild in the coming offseason and there are no two ways about this - they need starting pitching.

There exists the possibility that the win-now minded Yankees might agree to settle up if the Mets agreed to top off the trade with Double-A righty Brandon Sproat, the Metropolitans 2023 Second Round Draft pick and a deal might be struck but there's a slight problem with this thinking. Due to the hot start to the season, the Yankees mind set has become championship or bust, so a Double-A righty does little to elevate championship aspirations in the here and now. 

Would that this deal could, significantly expanding the trade is very intriguing and for the record, I'm not saying I would or wouldn't do what I'm about to describe below. On that note, the Yankees as mentioned lack a viable, long term plan at third base and the Mets have something to offer in this department as there exists a newly promoted Mets prospect that the Yankees would want to dial in on. If a deal for Alonso happened, its presumable that DJ LeMahieu shifts to third base, which is where the Yankees had planned on anchoring him this season. However, after this season, the Yankees have little help in the organization at third base. 

Enter Brett Baty, a left-handed swinging, Met's rookie at the hot corner, who is projected to be an average defender at best at the position but who would give the Yankees a great longer term, cost controllable option at third base. Baseball Trade Values places Baty at $25.8 MTV, so including him in this trade would cause the Yankees significant prospect related pain as it would require the Yankees to include both Will Warren and Chase Hampton. The MTV in this wild block buster shakes out, the money lines up as well - so would a trade like this ever happen?

Yankees Get: MLB LH1B Pete Alonso (.336 wOBA/123 wRC+), MLB RHRP Reed Garrett, AAA-MLB Rookie LH3B Brett Baty

Mets Get: MLB LH1B Anthony Rizzo, AA LHCF Spencer Jones, AAA RHSP Will Warren and AA RHSP Chase Hampton

Do I make this trade? Yes, I'd do it in the name of trying to win a championship this season and also, with an eye on a future plan that addresses third base going forward and one which transitions DJ LeMahieu to first or second base in the later years of his contract. Jones is struggling at Double-A and there's no guarantee that he pans out and the Yankees can always add a starting pitcher in free agency next offseason, if they feel they need to, so in order win now, I'd sacrifice Warren, Hampton and even Jones. There's also no denying that Pete Alonso helps the middle of the lineup and if combined with Juan Soto, Aaron Judge and the resurgent Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees lineup would go from an already terrifying look to one that would rival the Bombers Murderer's Row days of a bygone era. 

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Andy Singer - No. No, no, no, no, no...did I mention no? Pete Alonso has name recognition and a good looking 123 wRC+, but there is so much under the hood that doesn't look good. We have a middling walk rate, year-over-year declines in hard hit rate and exit velocity, a significant rise in groundballs with a corollary drop in line drive rate, and more worrisome still, declining metrics against good fastballs. Oh, let's not even mention the fact that he's always been a poor defender and he bats right-handed, which doesn't really fit this offense right now.

I still think Alonso is a good ballplayer, but it's an expiring contract and a poor fit. That's not someone for whom you trade your best prospect. I am not opposed to making a blockbuster deal, as the Yankees need to be in win-now mode, but this isn't the right deal.