April 30, 2024
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Here is a great question thought up by Tim Kabel that we asked our writers:
The Yankees need bullpen help. The A's have a magnificent closer in Mason Miller. If Oakland agreed to send the Yankees Mason Miller straight up for Spencer Jones, would you make that trade?
Here are our writers' responses:
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Ed Botti - Absolutely, positively, without a doubt No.
Mr. Miller is a walking Tommy John surgery waiting to happen.
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Lincoln Mitchell - In general, I am fine trading prospects for the final pieces of a potential championship team, but trading for Mason Miller at this moment is buying when his stock is very high. Miller has been great this year, but has thrown fewer than 15 innings. Last year, he was good but not standout. I would not make that trade.
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Mike Whiteman - I would have supported trading Spencer Jones in deals for Juan Soto and for Corbin Burnes, impact players who I think really can change the trajectory of the team. I’d also be open to dealing him in the future for a similar impact player.
As exciting as Mason Miller looks after a month as a closer, I would not deal the top prospect in the system for him.
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Tim Kabel - I would make the trade. Ideally, the Yankees will re-sign Juan Soto and they will have Jasson Dominguez back soon. Mason Miller is young and could anchor the bullpen for years. Spencer Jones is a tough price to pay but it’s a fair price.
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Paul Semendinger - It is tempting. The Yankees need relief help. Miller is only 25-years-old. I don't think, just because he throws hard, that he's a candidate for Tommy John Surgery, but he has had a lot of arm problems - so that's a huge red flag. Miller could be a flash in the pan. I believe the Yankees' window won't stay open for long. Juan Soto could be elsewhere in 2025. Alex Verdugo too. And Gleyber Torres as well. Judge, Stanton, LeMahieu, Cole, Rizzo are all showing signs of their advancing ages. If the Yankees don't win it all in 2024, it might be a long while before they're in position to win again. Right now, I'd pass, but I'd say, "Call me in a month." In a month, it might be clear that they'd need Miller.
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Cary Greene - Though the Yankees do need bullpen help, prized prospect Spencer Jones is worth $34.8 MTV per Baseball Trade Values and Miller is only worth $25.6 MTV, so trading Jones for Miller straight up isn't advisable from the Yankees part. Miller has started the season pitching like he's planning on making the All-Star team this year and his StatCast page indicates that the results generated by opposing batters based on the contact made against him in the 12 innings he's pitched this season were even a bit lucky. Miller's wOBA against this season is a glittering .213, while his xWOBA is a .146 - so it's fair to say that Miller is probably going to get even better as he goes along this season.
Miller's 4 seamer has ticked up 2.4 mph this season, going from last season's 98.3 mph average to 100.7 so far this season. He's been pretty impressive so far in the early going and I get why fanbases across baseball are already hovering over the A's electric closer, hoping their team can pillage the cellar dwelling A's leading up to the Trade Deadline, so they can insert Miller into the back end of their bullpen. The A's are basically a Quad-A feeder team for all of the other teams in baseball right now, so this type of theme is nothing new. Given that the A's are 12-17 so far this season and weren't expected to contend, there is little doubt that they'll once again supply their best players to teams in need as they continue with their effort to rebuild.
Keep in mind though, the A's are trying to limit Miller's innings as the plan is to keep him healthy. With their eyes probably fixed on trading him while he's still valuable, I expect Miller's name to come up incessantly in the media until the inevitable happens and he's dealt away. However, I'm not sure Yankees GM Brian Cashman should be looking to target a pitcher with as significant of an injury history as Miller has had - especially considering how awful the rosters he assembles are at avoiding injuries. If I were Brian Cashman, I'd only be interested in trading for players who don't have glaring red flags in their injury histories. I'd also be looking for players who have demonstrated they can handle substantial work loads. I wouldn't trade Jones for a pitcher like Miller, who tallied only 39 1/3 innings in his entire minor league career spanning back to 2021, as he's had a variety of injury issues of the shoulder and elbow varieties.
Still, Miller has only pitched 12 innings so far this season and considering that last season he pitched only 33 innings for the A's, so he hasn't exactly shown that he can be a reliable, lock down closer who can answer the call to the bullpen regularly and take the ball. If you were a GM, would you trade your best prospect for such an unproven reliever? Miller has also been hurt far too much in his career to justify trading a blue chip type prospect like Spencer Jones, who is easily more valuable than Miller is. If I were Cashman and I did want to roll the dice on trading for Miller, Spencer Jones would be off limits, but a lesser offer might still get the A's attention.
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Andy Singer - I am tempted to go for a trade like that, because as a Yankee fan, who doesn't love watching a dominant reliever at the backend of games? We've been spoiled in that way for a long time, going from Mariano Rivera, to a combination of David Robertson, Rafael Soriano, Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, Zack Britton, and numerous other big-time pitchers in the 8th and 9th innings. Mason Miller is a young buzz-saw whose 100+ MPH fastball and jaw-dropping slider are two of the best pitches in the Majors right now, period. Miller comes with years of team control and seemingly fits the Yankees' needs perfectly.
However, Miller is a reliever who hardly has any innings under his belt at the big league level. Relievers come and go, and very few are capable of holding performance for many years. Trading your best prospect, someone who is in the upper minors and whose likely performance floor is rising to a level that will soften the blow even if he doesn't reach his enormous ceiling, doesn't make sense even if the Yanks traded for a dominant, established reliever.
Using any metric, the value just isn't there, so as exciting as Mason Miller has been this season, no, I would not trade Spencer Jones for Mason Miller.
Ed said it first and said it best. Only thing I'd add is that an everyday player is MUCH more valuable than a closer. During his closer years, Mariano Rivera's peak WAR was 4.3, about the same as Johnny Damon (4.2) that year (2008). Miller ain't no Mo, and Jones could be another Judge, and even if he turns out to be half a Judge, he's going to be more valuable than Miller.
We have to remember the REASON that Mason Miller is the A's closer. He had originally been an A's starter. It's BECAUSE he has already had UCL damage in his elbow and has missed significant time because of it. So they put him in the bullpen as the 9th inning closer with the hopes that it will "keep him healthy" since he only has to get 3 outs per game. Pitchers throwing at high velocity 100 mph + is the EXACT CAUSE of pitchers needing "Tommy John Surgery", so The Yankees end up acquiring a player with a history of UCL issues, who throws too hard for his UCL to withstand the abuse of that very frail ligament, and…
No I would not for several reasons
The A's have shown they ask for a lot from the Yankees, no matter who they have to trade. No way would they allow this to be a one for one;
A few weeks of Miller being a lights out bullpen guy is not enough to trade your top prospect (in my thinking, Dominguez is a MLB player, just on the IL) for. Now, come ask me again after the ASB;
Big difference in playing for the A's as opposed to pitching for the Yankees. Just see Gary Sanchez's interview from this past weekend as proof;
With Cole on his way back before the ASB, combine that with Gil's much better control, I'd…
both Soto and Verdugo are in the final year of team control.
and both will be free to go elsewhere, leaving holes in the batting order and outfield in their wake,
before the organization should consider trading a powerful, lefty-hitting outfielder
FOR A RELIEVER
the organization must determine whether it will be able to keep one or another of the outfielders already on hand.
if the Yankees cant keep one, trading Jones is unwise.
this might be an important year for the Yanks, but there is almost certainly gonna be a next year