The Next Big NPB to MLB Destination?

Yesterday, a team in the American League East signed a player out of the NPB. Are they a new hub for Japanese talent?

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Who Signed?

Yesterday evening, the Baltimore Orioles signed Tomoyuki Sugano, a 35-year-old right-handed starting pitcher, on a 1-Year/$13 Million deal from the Yomiuri Giants. Jeff Passan (tweet below) was the first to break this news.

To long-time readers of the blog, especially those who remember our old layout when we used to use Squarespace, the name Tomoyuki Sugano may ring a bell. It certainly was a shock to myself to hear his name get brought back up.

Back during the 2020-2021 offseason, I wrote two articles about the right-handed pitcher from Japan. The first article was a general overview about his background, his stats, and how he could potentially fit into the Yankees 2021 rotation. The second article was about exploring the idea of a 6-man rotation, if Sugano signed with the Yankees.

A Quick Aside: It's very interesting when looking back, even just 4 years ago, at the state of the Yankees. Gerrit Cole was the new ace of the staff, and behind him was a mix of Jordan Montgomery, Domingo German, an injured Luis Severino (TJS), and the hopes of Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt. How quickly time flies...

In the last three years that followed my original interest, Sugano had stayed pitching with the Yomiuri Giants and continued to well, though not otherworldly (as his legacy had been), while pitching to a low-3.00 ERA and seasons of 119.2, 149.0, and 86.0 innings respectively. However, during the 2024 season, Sugano regained his excellence as he pitched to his 3rd Central League MVP while posting a 1.67 ERA over 156.2 innings of work.

In his 12-year career in Japan, Sugano has earned himself numerous awards and accolades (3 MVP's, 2 Sawamura Awards [the Cy Young Award in Japan], and 8 All-Star nods), and now he gets to finally test his mettle in the MLB.

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Is Baltimore A New Hub for Japanese Talent?

If you believe in "Betteridge's Law of Headlines", you would quickly assume and estimate that the clear and obvious answer is "no".

And, for the most part, you may be right. (And I may be crazy.)

(Sorry.)

All that being said, however, the Baltimore Orioles have completed the hardest step in the journey to potentially be a new hub: They have signed a pitcher directly out of Japan. This is an oddity for the Orioles, who have only ever had 2 players in their history be born in Japan.

Koji Uehara was the first, and only, Japanese-born player to play with the Orioles, after he was signed out of Japan in 2009. Uehara stayed with the Orioles through the 2011 trade deadline- when he was moved for a package of Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter. This was until the 2023 season, when they acquired Shintaro Fujinami from the Oakland Athletics near the trade deadline in a move for Easton Lucas. Fujinami left the Orioles in free agency ahead of the 2024 season, ultimately winding up with the New York Mets.

So, how could the Orioles become a new hub for NPB talent given their lack of history? Well, it only takes one signing to bring another.

Roki Sasaki is the next big free agent that every team in the MLB is (or should be) after. He's been posted under the new rules for young Japanese talent, meaning he'll be subject to a standard rookie contract in the MLB given his age (23 years old). He's the next big Japanese pitcher to come to the MLB and he's fiercely determined to become not only a star, but a certified ace. However, this signing isn't only difficult because every MLB team is interested.

According to rumors, Sasaki wants a team that is not in a large media market, will provide a winning ballclub, and has many years of future contention. And, that's exactly what the Baltimore Orioles can provide. It's clear to see:

• Baltimore ranks as the 26th biggest media market in the USA, and is the 5th smallest media market across MLB teams. They only rank ahead of the San Diego Padres, Kansas City Royals, Cincinnati Reds, and Milwaukee Brewers (in that order).

  
  

• Baltimore had the 3rd best record in the American League (7th best record overall) in the MLB in 2024.

  
  

• Baltimore has a ton of young, exciting, and great talent that includes Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Ryan Mountcastle, Jackson Holliday, and Heston Kjerstad (to name a few). Not to mention having two Top-100 prospects (by MLBPipeline's 2023 End-of-Year Rankings) in Colby Mayo (#8) and Samuel Basallo (#13), who are both at/near the MLB level.

  
  

• Baltimore also has a new owner, David Rubenstein, who just bought the team in 2024 and has already started making moves to bring in free agents and turn the Orioles into an active team on the market.

So, while you can agree with Betteridge for now and say "no", the cards are definitely in play for a team like the Orioles to make a big push for Roki Sasaki. And, with Sasaki and Sugano, anything could happen.

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This Used To Be The Yankees:

How many times, in recent years, have the Yankees lost out on bringing in the big, superstar, Japanese player?

In 2024 it was missing out on Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Dodgers) and Yuki Matsui (Padres).

In 2023 it was missing out on Kodai Senga (Mets) and Masataka Yoshida (Red Sox).

In 2022 it was missing out on Seiya Suzuki (Cubs).

In 2019 it was missing out on Yusei Kikuchi (Mariners).

In 2018 it was missing out on Shohei Ohtani (Angels).

In 2016 it was missing out on Kenta Maeda (Dodgers).

In 2014, they signed Masahiro Tanaka.

In the history of NPB players coming to the MLB, only 71 players have ever made it stateside. In the past twelve years, since 2013, there have been 23 of these players who have played a game in the MLB.

In 2012 it was missing out on Yu Darvish (Rangers).

Of them, just one- Masahiro Tanaka- ever played for the Yankees.

In 2012 it was missing out on Nori Aoki (Brewers).

No current Japanese-born player in the MLB has put on the Yankee pinstripes in their careers.

In 2012 it was missing out on Hisashi Iwakuma (Mariners).

The Yankees are, clearly, no longer a destination for young, Japanese talent.

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However, when you look at the prior 12 years (2001-2012), the Yankees were involved in the market. They were a destination, and a team, to play for.

From 2001 to 2012, a total of 39 players from the NPB came to the MLB. Of them, 5 players, at one point or another, wore the Yankees pinstripes in their careers.

This includes Hideki Matsui, Ichiro Suzuki*, Hiroki Kuroda*, Kei Igawa, and Ryota Igarashi.

(Not to mention Kosuke Fukudome, who was with the Yankees as a minor leaguer in 2012.)

*Kuroda was signed by the Yankees ahead of the 2012 season, and Ichiro was traded to the Yankees near the 2012 trade deadline.

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When the NPB to MLB pipeline was in its infancy, the Yankees were active members of the market.

Nowadays, the Yankees are far from it.

And, I hope the Yankees can buck this trend soon.

Maybe, even, with Roki Sasaki.

(Please!)