The Big Move To Make For 2025

by Paul Semendinger

November 14, 2024

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E.J. Fagan and I discussed this on the Start Spreading the News Podcast on Nov. 11, and the more I think about this, the more I am convinced that after re-signing Juan Soito, the next big move the Yankees should make is trading for Vlad Guerrero, Jr.  (Now, I need to take a step back and be clear here.  I want that last sentence to read, "The next big move the Yankees must make...," but I realize that this is the longest of long shots.  As such, should replaces must.) 

I know this isn't happening.  I get it.  I do.  But, boy oh boy, if there was just one move to make that would make the Yankees substantially better, this is the one.  (And it's not even close. This is the one move that doesn't take a chance or a hope on a player that might be good. This is the one move that would make the Yankees substantially better.)

The Yankees need a first baseman.  Vlad Guerrero, Jr. is a first baseman.  And, he's not just a good hitter, he's a great hitter.  He is one of the best hitters in the game.

The Yankees, for all their supposed firepower last year, had a very short lineup.  For much of the year, the Yankees' offense was Juan Soto and Aaron Judge.  Vlad Guerrero, Jr. would obviously give the Yankees that one more big (huge) bat at the top of the lineup.  

Guerrero, also, like Soto, is an everyday player.  Guerrero played in 159 games last year and has averaged 159 games played each of the last four seasons.  He's also young.  Vladdy will turn just 26-years-old in March 2025.  The Yankees wouldn't be just getting a superstar, they'd be getting a young superstar (like Soto) heading into his prime years.  

Having Guerrero in the lineup would also take a lot of pressure off three other would-be starters on the 2025 Yankees:  Anthony Volpe, Austin Wells, and Jasson Dominguez.  All three, at one time or another, have been regarded as players with tremendous upside as hitters.  All three have failed to produce consistently (obviously Dominguez has not had as much of an opportunity as Volpe and Wells have had).  The Yankees have expected all three to perform at a high level immediately.  I submit that the pressure this has placed on them has limited (or stunted) their growth as hitters.  

Also, having those three very young starting players will help the Yankees manage their budget.  The Yankees of 2025 should actually have a host of low salaried players in the starting lineup to offset the big salaried players.  Volpe, Wells, and Dominguez are just a start.  Jazz Chisholm won't be making tons of money yet - and it's possible that Caleb Durbin, Oswald Peraza, or Oswaldo Cabrera will also be starting or sharing starting roles.  If the Yankees must be cost-conscious (I argue, often, that they need not be, but if they think they must be, then having five starters all making very little money helps the team a great deal to that end.)

How this for a possible lineup of position players:

c- Wells

1b- Guerrero

2b- Durbin (or Peraza or Cabrera)

ss- Volpe

3b- Chisholm

lf- Dominguez

cf - Judge

rf - Soto

dh- Stanton

That team reminds me of... the Dodgers. The Dodgers are a team with three unquestioned superstars who have role players, some with great upside, surrounding them.  

Could Caleb Durbin, who had a good walk rate in the minors, be a possible leadoff hitter?  I think it's worth a shot...

To me, this looks like a championship lineup:

1. Durbin

2. Judge

3. Soto (or Soto then Judge, it matters little)

4. Guerrero

5. Wells

6. Stanton

7. Dominguez

8. Chisholm

9. Volpe

Just imagine that lineup if Volpe, Wells, and Dominguez actually realize their potential.  Holy Cow.  But, even if they don't, the firepower around them is a huge upgrade from the 2024 Yankees.  One player, Vlad Guerrero, changes everything - drastically and dramatically.  

The question would be, how do the Yankees make a great enough offer to acquire Vlad Guerrero, Jr.?  The answer comes from the minor leagues, of course, with a trade package that would be difficult, I think, for the Blue Jays to pass-up.  

First, there is talk that the Blue Jays might be big bidders so Juan Soto. If they fail to get him (in this scenario, he's a Yankee forever more), they'll realize that they won't contend in the AL East and that the smart move is to trade their best player (a free agant at the end of the year) for a collection of young talent.

The trade with the Yankees starts with Spencer Jones.  (In order to get greatness, you must trade your best pieces.)  If Soto is signed and if Dominguez is the player he is advertised to be, and with Judge, the Yankees' outfield is set for many years.  There is no room for Jones on this team.  If Vlad is signed to play first base, Ben Rice also has no spot.  Throw in a pitching prospect, or two, and that deal looks awfully appealing.  (This would not be a case of trading young players for an old guy - Jones is only two years younger than Guerrero and Rice is actually a few months older.) The Yankees would not be short on outfield depth either with Oswaldo Cabrera and Jazz Chisholm able to fill in out there if need be. They'd also still have Everson Peirera (remember him - less than two years ago he was one of the bright young future stars that so many fell in love with) at Triple-A. In the end, a four-for-one deal that includes a first baseman (Rice) and the Yankees top prospect (Jones), along with another piece or two seems like it could get the deal done.

Again, I am realistic. The likelihood of the Yankees and Blue Jays making this huge deal is a longshot, at best.  But, still, it's not impossible.  The Blue Jays in this trade would be getting young players under team control for many years for a player who will most likely leave at the end of the year.  It was rumored that he was on the trade block last summer.  It also doesn't seem as if the Blue Jays are going to be a team batting for a top spot in 2025.  The time for them to sell is now.

For the Yankees, I cannot think of any player other than Vlad Guerrero, Jr., who is (or might be) on the market who would so radically improve the offense and make the team an absolute powerhouse while also allowing the young stars more "room" and less pressure to grow.  

Following the 2025 World Series victory, the Yankees could then sign Vlad to his own big contract.  Why not?  

To me, this is the move to make.  (If nothing else, it's fun to dream about.)