SSTN Weekly Mailbag: Catching, Jazz, And Prospects!

The Yankees enter today's standings as a .600 ballclub. By basically any measurement, that's a good start. The starting rotation has stabilized somewhat, especially with Carlos Rodon finding his footing (there's a reason I kept saying he looked close). Aaron Judge continues to amaze, even if he's doing it slightly differently than he's done it in the past (seriously, I didn't have "Aaron Judge chases .400" on my April Bingo Card). Ben Rice, even with an ugly elbow contusion, has continued to be a formidable Robin to Judge's Batman. Overall, the offense continues to hum, even if it feels like it could be a lot better. These are all really good things!

Yet somehow, April feels like a missed opportunity. Again, at least half of the offense is mired in a huge slump at the same time. Anthony Volpe has not taken a real offensive step forward yet; pitchers are challenging him with high fastballs with impunity. Dominguez looks great batting left-handed, and completely lost batting right-handed, save for his late inning game-winning knock last week. Jazz is in the midst of one of his typical lulls. Bellinger has been one of the worst regulars in baseball at the plate. The Yankees consistently strand runners, so they don't pull away from games and they don't consistently come back when they're down, even when it looks doable. The bullpen still seems unsettled, which will happen when you pitch away from your untrustworthy closer.

That sounds overwhelmingly negative, and yet this team is .600. I also would caution that it's April. This could go one of two ways: either this team is that good that it doesn't need to fire at all cylinders to win games in the regular season...or they've gotten lucky, and a rather stunning slump is around the corner. I'm not sold on which it is yet, but I'm actually leaning towards the former. This team has played its C- game most games, and it continues to win. A little supplementation and an end to a couple of cold streaks, and this team could go on a run. I'm choosing to be positive.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about the backup catcher, Jazz's hitting approach, and discuss some early returns on notable prospects! Let's get at it:

Fuster asks: I haven't been much impressed by Escarra

and I've heard that Rice is not any better when wearing the tools

where should the organization be able to find a catcher to supplement or supplant Wells?

if Rice is the best back=up catcher choice for later in this season, is there anyone better for next?

I would caution that it's April. I'm going to sound like a broken record on that front. On the one hand, Escarra is not necessarily a perfect fit as Wells' backup. Wells really struggles against left-handed pitching, so pairing him with a capable righty hitter makes a lot of sense on its surface. Obviously, Escarra hits left-handed, so it's not perfect. Little ever is, really.

From a skills perspective, I believe pretty strongly that Escarra is a good fit for the roster overall. He's got soft hands behind the plate, moves pretty well back there for a big body, and reading body language, he's got a good rapport with his pitchers. I think there will be growing pains, but he'll be fine back there. I also believe very strongly in the bat. I think Escarra will eventually hit, with a swing built for line drives with enough raw power to occasionally pop it over the fence. Sitting with a few scouts at a AAA game last year (some of whom were not Yankee scouts), the consensus was unanimous that Escarra would be a big league player.

With a coming roster crunch as Stanton and LeMahieu might both eventually return, I do wonder how the Yankees will handle it. Pablo Reyes is pretty obviously an odd man out. After that? It's really a choice between Escarra and Peraza. Escarra has options; Peraza doesn't, though it's obvious the Yankees don't trust Peraza at all. Oswaldo Cabrera is capable of spelling Anthony Volpe at SS, particularly since Volpe rarely sits. That would leave Cabrera without a platoon partner, though. I really wonder if Escarra will eventually get some ABs at 3B, a position he proved capable of handling on a part-time basis in the minors. With more at-bats, I feel that Escarra will hit acceptably well.

In a scenario where Stanton returns, squeezing Rice out of the DH slot a fair amount, I do foresee Rice rotating between DH, 1B, and C to get at-bats, particularly if he keeps hitting like this. Realistically though, Rice is not good back there. Having seen both Escarra and Rice play in person during Spring Training this year, my evaluation has not changed. If neither is the answer to backup Wells, then you need to look off the roster...unless you believe Jesus Rodriguez, a solid prospect, is the answer as the backup catcher. I'm not sure Rodriguez is a catcher, as I think he looks best at 3B.

I will caution, though: catching is weak around baseball, and good backup catchers are not readily available. I think the Yankees' catching situation is stable, with some help available in the next couple of years should I be wrong about Escarra.

Robert M.: In Thursday's post-game thread, Ed and fuster were discussing Jazz Chisholm and his drop in BA (110 or so points from what he put up last year with the Yankees and 80 points below his career average) compared to his big power numbers (on pace to hit 45 HRs/162 games) compared to a career ratio of 29/162.  You have terrific analyses of players' swings over time; is Jazz selling out his swing to get more lift to try to take advantage of YS III's right field at the expense of his BA and K rate (214 for the year vs. 183 career rate)?

I will freely admit that I have not examined enough video closely to know for sure yet. However, I will give you my initial impression: no, I don't think Jazz is selling out for more power with the Yankees. In fact, I see the opposite; the Yankees have worked to level out his swing compared to what he did with the Marlins.

Full disclosure: I posted this in the comments section to one of Ed's game recaps from a couple of weeks ago. I'll reiterate it here, with some follow-up.

What you see Jazz doing is mechanically very similar to what he has always done at the plate. In fact, the Yankees have helped him quiet his swing compared to what he was doing with the Marlins, as he was prone to having his hips fly open early and he had way too much pre-pitch movement. In fact, Jazz actually has a touch less loft in his swing now compared to his Marlins days. Check out these two home runs at the point of contact (the first is his homer on 4/13/2025, while the 2nd is from 2023:

His hands finish way higher with the Marlins, and his hips flared open significantly earlier, so he didn't get his belt around properly. These pitches were in similar zones, so it's not a question of needing a different bat path to get to the pitch. Jazz was actually trying harder to launch the ball with the Marlins than he is with the Yankees. In the swings I've seen, Jazz is more level, with a quieter body than he had when he played for the Marlins.

Jazz has always been a streaky player; mechanical tweaks are not going to change that. We saw "hot streak" Jazz when he came over last year. The fact that he's at least showing power during one of his notorious cold streaks indicates that the inevitable hot streak is going to be pretty impressive. Jazz swings and misses; it's part of his game, and that's enhanced when he's struggling. Let's see where things even out when the inevitable hot streak comes. I have a hunch that the two streaks averaged out look remarkably similar to his final numbers with the Yankees last season from a whiff and strikeout perspective.

I might revisit this, though; I'd like to watch more video to see if my initial impression from watching games and looking at a few swings sticks.

Alan B. asks: RE: Cam Schlittler/Spencer Jones/Roderick Arias - Andy, with another 7 shutout innings tonight, and a 1.23 ERA through 4 starts, 22 IP on him being sent back to to AA, at what point would you move him up to AAA, considering the rotation in the Bronx?

Spencer Jones has 7 HRs already this year, but has a strikeout problem, and is a #1 ('22) pick.

Roderick Arias, who isn't hitting this year, but he too has a strikeout problem, but is their 2022 IFA $4M signee.  At what point do the Yankees go off their coaching philosophies to try to fix both these guys. They heavily invested in both of them but.... (frustrated)

I wrote about Schlittler before the season started even prior to seeing him in person at Spring Training. I really liked what I saw last year, and he's clearly made a leap this year. The Yankees clearly think so too, given how much time they gave him with the big league club during Spring Training. I don't mind that they sent him to AA to prove that he had mastered that level, but I agree that he's ready for another challenge. Once a guy gets to AAA, he's a real MLB option, and Schlittler looks very, very close to me. I would call him up to AAA by early May, as long as he's fully stretched out. Let him work out some growing pains there, including testing his new splitter (which I still haven't seen) against better competition, because I think he'll need more off-speed stuff against big league hitters. I think he'll be an option this summer.

Arias and Jones are in very different buckets from Schlittler. Both were always very risky prospects for different reasons. Jones' strike zone is gigantic. I think Yankee fans have always discounted that when evaluating Jones, because we've watched how Judge has performed. Really, Judge and Stanton are the 99th percentile outcomes for players of that size; they minimize the swing and miss issues just enough to do damage on pitches they can handle. Almost no one of their size has been successful, outside of Dave Kingman, and he was not as successful as Judge and Stanton. Frankly, stuff is insanely good now, so the guys from earlier eras are not a good point of comparison. I have always thought that Jones would be lucky to be Joey Gallo with more speed. No amount of coaching can help Jones get to his whole strike zone; that comes from insane eyes and hand-eye coordination. He's young enough that he might get there, but I don't blame coaching there.

I don't blame coaching for Arias, either. The book on him always was that the hit tool might not get there, and that's been shown in spades since he came stateside. His bat path is very stiff, and he can't adjust to pitches out of a pre-determined zone. I also think his pitch recognition is non-existent; I used to say the same thing about Estevan Florial, and we see how that worked out. Arias has fewer raw tools at the plate compared to Florial, so his floor is even lower, as is the ceiling. Again this isn't a coaching issue.

I know that many want to blame the analytics boogeyman for the struggles of Yankee prospects, but the realty is that translating raw tools into usable MLB talent is incredibly challenging. All teams use data analysis to support coaching and scouting; the Yankees are no different on that front. For every Roderick Arias, there's an Anthony Volpe who the team helps maximize their innate tools. For every Spencer Jones, there's an Aaron Judge. Developing big league prospects is hard, period.