SSTN Not The Weekly Mailbag: Perspectives

I have to apologize to all of you. I haven't been around as much as I usually am this month. My day job has required a quantity of hours that makes it difficult to make time for much else at the moment. That's not necessarily a bad thing; I'm no stranger to long hours, but this time, the hours have been such that it leaves precious little time for anything else. There is light at the end of the tunnel, though. This is the last day I'm working until sometime in early January, so you can expect to see me around a lot more in the next couple of weeks (and then, hopefully, I'll be back to my regularly scheduled programming). I miss writing about the Yankees and talking to all of you in the comments section, so rest assured that I'll be back around very shortly (after a couple of days of much-needed rest).

As such, there was just no time for me to produce my standard Mailbag this week. What follows is a quick hit of my thoughts and perspectives on some recent happenings in the Yankee Universe. Please send me your questions to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. We'll get back to the Mailbag next Friday.

Without any further ado, here are some scattered thoughts:

• The Max Fried contract proves what I've been saying since the start of free agency: starting pitching is expensive this offseason. Blake Snell's contract signaled that if a team wanted starting pitching, they would be paying dearly for it. On the surface, Max Fried's contract looks like an overpay, but I'm not so sure. Fried is one of the most consistent pitchers on the planet. He can attack hitters in multiple ways. Fried is almost a better version of Jordan Montgomery (much better stuff, maybe half a grade lower command on some of those pitches). I liked Fried best among the available free agent starters this offseason, and I think he is most likely to hold his value the longest.

• I worried about Corbin Burnes on a long-term deal. His strikeout rate has fallen drastically year-over-year, and I think that's part of the hesitancy we've seen with his market. Burnes has earned his payday, but there are really good reasons to believe that his contract won't age well outside of the first couple of seasons. Burnes is a one-trick pony, and while it's a heck of a trick, it's also not as dominant as it was a couple of years ago.

• From a pure baseball perspective, the Devin Williams deal was a good trade. Williams is one of the best closers in the sport, the Pete Alonso homer in the playoffs this year notwithstanding. The Yankees have signaled for over a year now that Nestor would not be re-signed once his years of team control ran out after the 2025 season, and they got real value in return. From the moment the Yankees hyped up Caleb Durbin as a possible starter at 2B in 2025, I knew they were hunting for a trade. I like Durbin quite a bit more than most of the prospect lists, but he has a very firm ceiling due to his complete lack of quality contact. He hasn't hit the wall yet, but he wouldn't be the first guy who struggled to translate their production at the MLB level, and he is someone who is at real risk for that outcome. I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers try to deploy him at 2B and LF to try to get some value out of his legs, but it will be very interesting to see if the bat plays.

• Devin Williams is awesome, and his "Airbender" fits the Yankees' change-up heavy philosophy. It's tough to argue with getting a guy like that in the fold, as he makes the bullpen that much deeper.

• On a personal level, I'm very sad to see Nasty Nestor go. He was my favorite Yankee. I loved everything about watching him pitch and his attitude around the ballpark. That guy is a winner in every way. He scratched and clawed to make his way to the Majors when few believed he could, and he proved to be as big a gamer as anyone out there (it's not his fault Boone deployed him in the worst way possible in the World Series). I've been mentally preparing to see Nestor moved in a trade, and logically, it makes sense. It doesn't make me any happier to see him leave. Nestor always brought a smile to my face whether he was on the mound or in the dugout, and I'll miss watching him.

• It's nice tor realize I still enjoy watching an individual player that way; it makes you feel like a kid again. The fact that baseball still does that for me makes me happier than I understood until recently.

• Most of you know that I am not a big Cody Bellinger fan, and I have argued against his acquisition for years. At this price, it made perfect sense. Maybe his swing really is as perfect for Yankee Stadium as it seems, and he has a huge season. I also love his positional versatility. Early reports by Bob Nightengale indicated that Bellinger was promised that he'd be in CF for the Yankees, but we now know that reporting was inaccurate, which is a relief. Shoehorning him into a position right now would hurt the Yankees' flexibility. If Jasson Dominguez earns a spot on the Yankee roster, his best position is CF. Bellinger has experience in both outfield corners, and I could very easily see him playing a plus LF in Yankee Stadium (assuming he's comfortable with the angles). In fact, Bellinger played a significant amount of LF in his rookie year, and the reviews on his defense were generally positive there. He's a true 3-position outfielder, which the Yankees need. He can also play 1B, which could prove critical for this team. I like the trade, even if Bellinger is overpriced. This is the right time to go get a good left-handed bat that plays good defense at multiple positions. Great move!

• Everyone is treating Cody Poteet like he's a nothing piece. I don't think that's true. I wrote a lot about Poteet last offseason, and noted that he could surprise a lot of people with his performance. He was accomplishing that goal until the injury bug struck. It wouldn't shock me if he becomes a solid backend starter with the Cubs.

• I really don't like a long-term deal for Alex Bregman, but the Yankees need to do something at 2B/3B, and I don't see many appealing options. I really wonder if a trade is brewing on that front.

• The Yankees look better on paper than I expected them to look at this point in December. I am cautiously optimistic about what this roster will look like by the time Spring Training rolls around.

• So, I lied in my intro; I'll quickly answer Alan B.'s question in the comments section from last week. He asked:

• "After years of the Yankees losing at least 2, usually more in the Rule 5 Draft, what does it say about the Yankees losing absolutely no one? And that's after Mitch Spence became a solid back end of the rotation SP for the A's last year after being a Rule 5 pick himself?"

• My answer: if you look at the full draft results, there were hardly any picks in the Rule 5 Draft. The draft pool has been diminishing for years now, and this year was particularly barren. None of the guys the Yankees had available were likely to stick on an MLB roster all season, and frankly, I don't see anyone who was picked this year who is likely to stick. MLB depth in the minors is shrinking terribly, and most of that has to do with MLB's terribly short-sighted minor league contraction. As for Mitch Spence, he was a perfectly cromulent 5th starter on a bad team in a giant ballpark. That's a good outcome for a Rule 5 Draft pick, but he's moving into a bandbox this year. Let's see if he repeats. I'm not ready to call Spence a Rule 5 success yet.

Thank you all for reading, commenting, and asking questions throughout the year. I look forward to writing the SSTN Mailbag every week, and it's because of all of your contributions (you give me good material!). Happy Holidays to you and yours, and I'll see you next Friday!