SSTN Not The Weekly Mailbag: ALCS Reaction

In lieu of a traditional SSTN Mailbag post this week, I thought it would be timely to write more specifically about the 3 games we've seen in the ALCS thus far, since the questions that came into the Mailbag were all about the ALCS anyway. As always, keep the questions coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com, and I'll keep answering them. I assume that we'll get back to our normal cadence next week, unless there is something more timely and momentous to discuss.

The Yankees lead 2-1 in the ALCS with only 2 games remaining in Cleveland. If that's all I had to say in the series, you would think that Yankee fans were feeling pretty good. Unfortunately, ALCS Game 3 was the type of game all of us have been dreading since the playoffs began. Our Editor-In-Chief, Paul, wrote just two days ago, "I did not think that the Royals would beat them. And I don't think the Guardians can beat them. But, I do think the Yankees can beat themselves." This statement is all you need to know about how most of us feel about this team. They are ridiculously talented! Flawed, but as talented as any team in baseball. I would argue that on paper, only the Dodgers are close to being as complete a team. Unfortunately, the hallmark of Aaron Boone-led teams is play that can most aptly be described as undisciplined, often unprepared, and lacking fundamentals.

While the Yankees have dabbled with that style of play throughout the playoffs, last night, the team fell off the wagon. There were almost too many poor plays to count. Poor fielding at 1B; a total lack of awareness on the basepaths; an inability for the defense-first catcher to throw the baseball; and poor pitch calling by either the bench or the catcher (depending on who was behind the plate). To add injury to insult, the Yankees again were bit by the injury bug, seemingly losing Ian Hamilton to a calf injury.

Last night, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton put the team on their back and did everything in their power to steal a win for the Yankees. The totality of the Yankees' inability to play sound, professional baseball cost them. I'm not one who believes in the momentum fairy over the course of a series, but I do believe it can effect the mental game that happens within a single game. The team fought, but every mistake took a bit more wind out of the Yankees' sails, and added a bit more to Cleveland's. The probability remains that the Yankees will win this series; by talent alone, they are the better team. They cannot continue to beat themselves. They will not win the World Series if they continue to kill rallies and miss easy outs.

Besides that, I'd like to list out some other thoughts, in no particular order:

• I have a ton of respect for the fact that Rizzo is clearly doing everything in his power to be ready to play through broken fingers. Rizzo is so clearly a team-first guy, it actually pains me to say something negative at the moment. However, it is clear to me that Rizzo's reactions in the field have slowed significantly. He struggled defensively earlier in the year prior to the broken arm as well, so this is not a new phenomenon. Rizzo replaced Jon Berti, who had a misplay of his own that may or may not have caused Ian Hamilton's injury, in last night's game, and again missed a ball that an MLB 1B has to make. This happened earlier in the series as well. I said it prior to the ALDS, and I'll say it again: I think Oswaldo Cabrera is the best option to start at 1B for the Yankees right now. That's not ideal, but it's reality. Cabrera puts together professional at-bats, and is good at almost every position he has played on the diamond (save for maybe LF). We've reached the point where Rizzo almost necessarily needs to have his playing time decreased.

• Prior to Game 3, I agreed with the decision to get Rizzo and Wells out of the lineup against a lefty, but I didn't think they went far enough. Berti didn't do anything offensively, but while many called for Berti to play in place of Chisholm, I would have played Berti in LF and sat Verdugo, with Oswaldo at 1B and Chisholm at 3B. So of course, Verdugo doubled off of Boyd. Shows how much I know.

• I found the idea that Judge is somehow a lesser player in October laughable. I'm thrilled that he largely has put that storyline to rest with 2 homers in his last 2 days. Last night's homer was as big a homer as he's ever hit. Had the Yankee bullpen finished the job, we'd be talking about that homer as a Yankee classic.

• I also disagree with the notion that Stanton is somehow lucky. Stanton remains a fearsome power hitter. His overall numbers for the last year and a half are diminished, but I have shown that statistically, he remains an excellent hitter, when healthy (even over the last 2 years as consistent health has evaded him). Right now, Stanton is clearly healthy, and he's as good a middle-of-the-order hitter as any in baseball. I don't envy Cleveland's pitching the next few days.

• I think that the Yankees' strategy of leaning hard on Weaver and Holmes is beginning to show cracks. Weaver's stuff and control does not look as sharp, and part of it is almost certainly fatigue. Holmes threw a sinker with two strikes and lost the game last night, but while the sinker didn't look quite as sharp, his unwillingness to throw the slider in an obvious slider count was very odd. Both guys are gassed, but good pitch selection could help hide their fatigue better.

• I need to call out Judge again - by my eye, he's been excellent out in CF. It really looks to me like he has an extra gear out there in October, almost like he intentionally held back a bit during the season to stay fresh. Judge is emptying the tank, and trying to will this team to wins defensively and offensively. How can you not love this guy?

• Likewise, we have to show some love to Carlos Rodon. He was so good early on in his ALDS start, and I really blame poor coaching and a hands-off attitude from Austin Wells for the sudden implosion, but Rodon went back to the well, made some changes, and was as good as any pitcher I've seen in a Yankee playoff start. I loved the Rodon signing when it happened, and I have quietly believed that he could turn things around. Man, I'm glad we have that guy right now.

• I also need to give a shoutout to Gleyber Torres. I had noted early in the season that he might be the best lead-off option on a team without a traditional lead-off hitter, but I had no idea that hitting lead-off would turn Gleyber into what we see today. He's patient, smart, and a terribly difficult out right now. I can't think of a more perfect lead-off hitter for this lineup. He could have packed it in and melted down after his early season struggles, but he hung in there, and has been one of the best hitters in the lineup since late-June, whether anyone noticed or not until August. I still don't think it's likely that Gleyber returns, but I've always had a soft spot for the guy. Regardless of his mistakes, I think it's clear the guy cares.

• This lineup would look so much better if Chisholm and Wells could wake up a bit. Chisholm walked and shortened up to make good contact up the middle last night; I believe he might be waking up. Wells? Not so much. He's missing really hittable fastballs right now. I can't help but think he's banged up.

• Jose Trevino still can't throw the baseball. I know some people opined that maybe he had some banged up fingers on his throwing hand in the early summer, but we're months beyond that, and he still can't throw. Granted, there was a time that I threw quite hard, but right now, I'm fairly certain that I could fall out of bed and make a better throw to the bases than Trevino right now. It's a severe liability, to the point that I don't think they can play Trevino again.

• With Hamilton likely on the shelf, I think that Mark Leiter Jr. will take his place. Leiter looked like he was figuring it out at the end of the year, so this might not be as bad as it seems at first glance.

• I still think the Yankees are the favorites to win this series.

• I felt really good about this team in games 1 and 2; I hope that Game 3 was just a blip on the radar.