SSTN Mailbag: Volpe, The Lineup, And Celebrations!

That was a strange series. The weather outlook at the beginning of the week was pretty terrible, so while the playing conditions for this last series were certainly less than ideal, I understand why MLB pushed to get the games in. The Angels are going nowhere this season, and no one wanted to try to squeeze in cross-country double-headers in either later this month or next month, so for once, I'm OK with the fact that the Yankees played these games.

However, there was certainly some weirdness in performance for both teams. Last night's game was an absolute blow-out, and Nestor's mechanics didn't look consistently good to me (a growing problem). On paper, the offense wasn't great, but here again, I think the weather played a role. Austin Wells, in particular, hit a couple of fly balls hard to the warning track in big spots. On a normal summer night, with warmer temperatures, no rain, and no humidity, I think he'd have gotten 2 Yankee Stadium homers. I don't think the Yankees deserved to win last night's game, but even one homer in either Wells at-bat that comes to mind would have changed the game quite a bit. Be that as it may, I don't think we can take much from this series for the Yankees - put it in the books, and move on. Let's hope the team comes out hot over their next 3 series.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about Anthony Volpe, the lineup, and the Yankees' big hit celebration! Let's get at it:

David R. asks: You had mentioned that you were writing an article about Volpe's swing changes. He's been hitting better since the All Star break, so I'm wondering if you didn't post the article because he made another change? If so, is it working and can we expect him to keep hitting?

The answer here is a bit multi-fold. Volpe made some major swing changes this off-season, changes that made me highly skeptical. Volpe was great in April, as pitchers largely challenged him with hard stuff over the plate, but he has regressed significantly as pitchers have moved the ball around more and mixed pitches. Volpe used an approach that he had never used through the minor leagues, and altered his swing that really put a cap on the things he does well as a hitter. Volpe has speed, but his bread and butter all the way through the minors was his ability to make solid contact with lift, while showing enough patience to put himself in hitters' counts. Volpe's swing rate increased significantly this season, and his batting stance and swing plane were altered to almost make him Luis Arraez-light. Unfortunately, very few hitters are capable of coming close to Arraez' unique ability to make contact in a meaningful way despite a slow, punchy swing.

The truth is, life has gotten in the way recently, so I haven't been able to finish the post I was working on around the All-Star break. However, it is also plain that Volpe has made adjustments again. Mechanically, those changes are subtle for now, but we have some statistical indicators that more is happening under the hood. Since July 12th, Volpe's swing speed is up close to 1 MPH, which doesn't sound like much, but is a big deal when we consider that Volpe had well below-average swing speed before July 12th, but he's closer to average since, which should lead to harder contact. That bears out, as his post-July 12th Exit Velocity is up significantly relative to his season average.

Additionally, and most critically, the lift in Volpe's swing is back. His fly ball rate is up a bit, while his line drive rate is up significantly, from hovering in the low 20% range for most of the season up all the way to 31+% in August. Volpe is also putting the ball on the ground way less and pulling the ball more. From a batted ball perspective, these are all huge improvements.

I know that many dreamed of Volpe being a slash and dash SS who hits at the top of the order; that's not who Volpe is, nor was it ever how Volpe produced at the plate. With Volpe's defensive profile, he can be a huge piece for this team if he refines what made him a good prospect in the first place, which was my prescription last season. I think Volpe is on the right track, and I do believe he can be productive offensively.

Anecdotally, Oswald Peraza clearly tried to make similar changes at the beginning of the season, pulling the ball far less while swinging more. Peraza is now back to pulling the ball in the air with greater frequency, though I admit this could have something to do with his shoulder injury earlier in the year. If the Yankee organization pushed these changes on Volpe (and Peraza), this was an awful experiment that will need further fixes in the off-season. If this was Volpe on his own, it wasn't smart.

Brian asks: The Yankees are back to playing decent baseball. How do you feel about the lineup and can it produce around Soto and Judge? How would you set the lineup[?]

I ran some numbers for how the Yankee lineup has performed since midway through their prolonged slump (numbers from 6/18 - 8/7):

The interesting thing to observe is that Judge and Soto do have some help. Wells, Rice, Chisholm, and Grisham all have performed. Wells is becoming a star before our eyes. Volpe has come around to some extent, while Oswaldo Cabrera is a fine utility player. As much heat as DJLM has received (rightly so), Verdugo has been even worse, yet he is treated like an obvious everyday player by the Yankees.

There is a really good argument to be made that Verdugo and Grisham's roles should be flipped for the benefit of the lineup. Grisham is too passive at the plate, and he'll never hit for a high batting average, but he's making enough contact, with enough pop and plate discipline to make him an everyday player. We keep hearing that Verdugo is banged up; give him some more off-days and let Grisham play more; he's earned it.

Yes, I think there is enough to make a formidable offense around Judge and Soto. I would platoon Rice with DJLM, as Rice has never hit lefties even at his hottest in the minors, and flip Grisham and Verdugo's roles. I also think the Yankees need to do something drastic to try to break the intentional walk cycle with Judge. The lineup against righties would look like this:

1. Judge LF

2. Soto RF

3. Stanton DH

4. Wells C

5. Chisholm 3B

6. Grisham CF

7. Torres 2B

8. Rice 1B

9. Volpe SS

Jeff K. asks: What is the meaning behind the Yankees latest hand gesture after getting a big hit, like a homer, or a run-scoring RBI hit?  It's that "two fingers to each eye" gesture. Speculations range from Boone's "It's all right there in front of us" quote to Michael Kay's theory of it meaning "eyes on the prize".  I was wondering if you or anyone you know who has "inside information" regarding what happens in the Yankee Clubhouse would know what that gesture means?

I personally believe it is some variation of "right there in front of us," but no, I don't have any inside information in the clubhouse on that one. I wish I did, but not this time, alas.