SSTN Mailbag: The Dominguez Lineup, Holmes, And The Booth!

Well, that was deflating. The bats came alive against the Brewers, and the Yanks looked like they were rounding into a pivotal series with the Orioles. Unfortunately, it sure seems like the Yankees still have some seriously sharp edges to round out. The pitching was more than adequate for the majority of the series. I thought the Orioles pitched really well for two games, but were gettable in the other two. Grayson Rodriguez and Corbin Burnes both pitched like top-of-the-rotation arms against the Yanks, and they split those match-ups in low-scoring affairs. That's good, and I'm not going to knock the offense for not scoring against either guy with how good their stuff looked (and I'd even point out that the Yankees hit multiple balls against Rodriguez hard, they just didn't find holes).

The other two games are what should give all Yankee fans cause for concern. I did not think that Baltimore's bullpen was particularly special, nor did I think Kremer or Bradish were that good on the hill during their starts. The Yankees got baserunners, but were utterly hapless at the plate with runners on-base, and it's becoming glaring, particularly their propensity to kill innings by grounding into double-plays. Aaron Judge is a prime culprit here. I'm at the point where I really hope he's hurt, because the alternative is not good.

I have an article coming on this in much greater depth, but the what is pretty easy to find. Many hate talking about exit velocity and launch angle, and that's because speaking about those metrics as averages really only tell us part of the story. We have to take a more granular look at how those averages are being generated. In a nutshell, Judge's average exit velocity and launch angles don't look alarming on paper, particularly in combination with his rapidly improving plate discipline statistics, but that doesn't tell the story. Most of Judge's hits throughout his career come on balls with a launch angle between 0-30 degrees, and at those launch angles, Judge has his highest percentage of high exit velocity numbers, hence his strong batting average and power numbers. This year, however, Judge's hardest contact is coming on balls at 0 - -20 degrees of launch, which means all of his hard contact is on the ground. In essence, he's just not hitting the barrel when he makes contact in a way that the ball launches in a happy window. The better question is why, and we'll look at that very shortly. Until Judge figures it out, the offense will be prone to this level of streakiness, and it's going to hurt against better teams.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about the lineup when Jasson Dominguez presumably returns, Clay Holmes, and the broadcast booth! Let's get at it:

Brian asks: With Jasson Dominguez currently ahead of schedule on his rehab, we've got an interesting, yet good problem on our hands. How would you propose the fielding lineup and batting order look once Dominguez is ready? Who comes out of the lineup now regularly?

First off, I want everyone to use caution when discussing Dominguez's return. I wrote an article a couple of weeks ago noting that progression isn't linear. I was talking about prospect development, but that phrase is perfectly valid when it comes to a player's return from major surgery. Dominguez isn't necessarily ahead of schedule in his recovery, but it's clear that his recovery has checked all of the boxes so far. Dominguez has been hitting from both sides of the plate for some time now and he's been tossing from 135 feet. Reports have also noted that he's 2-4 weeks away from beginning his rehab stint, which will almost certainly last the full length of what is allowed under MLB rules. If everything goes according to schedule, Dominguez can return in mid-late June. That doesn't necessarily mean that he will, however.

We talk a lot about Tommy John Surgery for pitchers, but I don't think we do enough expectation setting for position players. This is not an easy surgery for any player, and most are at least diminished somewhat when they initially return, more so if that return happens inside of a year. The recent anecdotal evidence is pretty clear on this point. Didi Gregorius was not the same hitter in the year following his TJS, and only had a resurgent offensive performance close to two years following his surgery date. Aaron Hicks has never been the same hitter since his TJS, though a significant wrist injury might have had something to do with that as well. Bryce Harper received a lot of press for coming back very quickly from Tommy John, but he experienced an uncharacteristic power outage from his return in May until coming out of it in August (9 months out from surgery). Others have had setbacks once they returned to play. I would also caution that there's a big difference between controlled catch from 135 feet and making a 200 foot throw with your adrenaline pumping. These are all checkboxes that Dominguez needs to check before returning, and even then, he might not be quite himself for a bit.

With all of that out of the way, let's pretend that the world is sunshine and puppies, and Dominguez returns in perfect health by the end of June looking like the guy he was at the end of 2023. Remember that as good as he was early on, there was almost certainly an adjustment coming as he saw more pitching around the league. Dominguez is not necessarily known for a superior hit tool, and though he runs high contact rates, much of that contact comes at sub-optimal launch angles until he sees a level for a while. That could happen again, so don't necessarily expect Dominguez to be a cure-all immediately.

However, I think the Yankees have options, depending on how the lineup looks in a month and change. Sitting Stanton with some consistency would make a lot of sense, particularly against good fastball pitchers. I also believe that rotating Judge and Dominguez between CF and DH makes a lot of sense for two guys who likely need at least partial days off occasionally. There's also the opportunity to get Soto into the DH slot, which is likely his best spot in this lineup with everyone healthy and producing. Playing Verdugo in LF, Dominguez in CF, Judge in RF, with Soto at DH is likely the team's best lineup if everyone is healthy and productive. There will almost certainly be a ton of rotation, though, and I remain skeptical that Dominguez will be ready to be an everyday MLB player when he finishes his rehab assignment.

Believe me, I've been the high-man around here on Dominguez, but he's a good enough prospect that he shouldn't be rushed back. If he's not lighting it up during his rehab assignment, giving him regular playing time at AAA until he forces his way into the lineup is an acceptable decision. Realistically, I think the Yankees will have until at least the All-Star break to grapple with a lineup decision. I hope Dominguez proves me wrong on that front. Really, let's see if Judge is healthy and if Stanton is producing by July...this decision might be made for the Yankees.

Mark asks: What are your thoughts on Clay Holmes as the closer? He's got a 0.00 ERA, and yet people still seem not to trust him. What more could you ask for?

Somehow, I didn't realize Holmes had a 0.00 ERA until Mark wrote in with this question. Holmes often plays a high-wire act on the mound, as if his sinker isn't quite right, he allows a fair amount of contact and he'll occasionally get walk-happy. That leads to baserunners, though Holmes also has proven adept at buckling down and getting outs when they're needed. More recently, his sinker has been outstanding in combination with his slider. Rob Friedman, better known as PitchingNinja on social media platforms, posted this overlay the other day:

That's Holmes at his best. A 97 MPH sinker with a fantastic slider with 12 MPH of separation, tunneled to perfection within the same at-bat. When he pitches like that, Holmes gets his fair share of strikeouts and he induces soft contact, which leads to great results. Yes, Holmes is one of the best closers in the sport, even though few recognize it yet, but Holmes just does it a bit differently than the fireballers of previous eras.

It's funny, I've been thinking about another Yankee pitcher in recent days: David Robertson. Does anyone remember what we used to call him? Houdini. That was his nickname because he allowed plenty of baserunners and always seemed to work in and out of trouble. Yet, all of us loved him as both a setup man and a closer.

I think Clay Holmes might just be Houdini II. He's great, and whether he's closing or playing a late-inning fireman role, I love the guy. The Yankees need some bullpen reinforcements, but Holmes is one of the good ones. I agree, the Yankees can't ask for much more from him thus far.

Sam B. asks: What is your favorite YES Network booth right now? There have been a lot of changes in recent years so the combinations seem endless.

I do agree that I wish the Yankees could do a bit better at standardizing the booth on a night-to-night basis. Even having the same crew for a week before a changeover would be a welcome change to the TV broadcast. I will note that I loved listening to the interview Meredith did with Ken Singleton the other night. I loved listening to him, and though he most often served as Michael Kay's color commentator, I thought he was the best play-by-play man the YES Network has employed in the modern era. My dream booth would have Ken Singelton as the play-by-play guy, as his calm demeanor, experience, and ability to describe the game while letting it breathe was refreshing. He also was great at interacting with color commentators and putting them in good positions to do their jobs well. I miss Kenny, but it sure sounds like he's happy in retirement and doesn't miss broadcasting. Good for him.

Right now, I think the Michael Kay - David Cone - Joe Girardi crew is pretty great, particularly Girardi because he's so tapped into how the modern game works and what's going through a manager's head throughout the game. I think Cone and Girardi balance Kay nicely, though I also enjoy Paul O'Neill and his quirkiness away from the game, much in the way fans of a different age enjoyed Phil Rizzuto in the booth.

I wish the Yanks could fill the schedule with more Girardi and Cone, but Cone has the big ESPN gig and Girardi seems happy with a more limited schedule. That's my favorite crew...I just wish we could see it more.