SSTN Mailbag: Surprises, AAA Evaluation, And The Bullpen (Again)!

What do these records represent as it relates to the Yankees' 2024 performance:

64-39

21-23

If you were to guess that these were the Yankees' collective records pre and post All-Star break, it would be a great guess. It would be wrong, but it would be a great guess anyway. In fact, it's a good enough guess that I likely would have made the same guess at first glance. Realizing the real answer to this question surprised me.

Ready for the real answer?

The first record is the Yankees' performance with Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup. The second record is the Yankees' performance when Giancarlo Stanton is out of the lineup or hurt. I admit, I was somewhat stunned by that realization when I first saw the numbers on last night's broadcast. Now, does that mean that Stanton is the straw that stirs the Yankees' drink? Hardly. Stanton was on the IL for much of the Yankees' tank job in June into July, so he looks significantly better because of that. However, we also can't ignore the fact that the offense fell apart as soon as Stanton got hurt.

Stanton catches a lot of flak from writers and fans. Yes, he's been hurt. A lot. And he turned into a DH-only far faster than anyone could have reasonably expected when he was acquired. And yes, it's an absurdly long contract. However, when healthy, Stanton also is a huge power threat in the middle of the lineup, even in his diminished state. He lengthens the lineup considerably, and I would argue helps change the way pitchers treat the hitters around him in the lineup. Even when he's slumping (like he is right now), pitchers have to respect his power and he continues to draw some walks when they're given. Even with his current slump, he's been one of the better full-time DH's in baseball this season. We all know the negatives with Stanton, but I don't think we do enough to appreciate what he means to this team when he's right. Prior to this season, much of the fanbase hoped the Yankees would eat the remainder of Stanton's deal and release him. Now? He'll likely produce yet another 30 HR season, and he's usually been pretty deadly in the playoffs.

The Yanks have found ways to win ballgames recently without Aaron Judge playing at an otherworldly level. Stanton hit .246/.302/.492, with a .795 OPS prior to landing on the IL in June, and has hit just .198/.269/.430, with a .699 OPS since his return in late-July. He's popped some big homers, but looks to be just a bit off in terms of timing. Again, the Yankees' offense has been pretty darn good in August and September. Imagine if the Yankees get Judge and Stanton rolling heading into the playoffs?!? That could be pretty sweet. I love a good redemption story, and I think Stanton is capable of pulling it off.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about this season's biggest surprises, my evaluation of AAA, and re-evaluate bullpen roles! Let's get at it:

Michael S. asks: What are your biggest surprises as it relates to the Yankees this season? They can be good or bad.

I like this one! The first surprise that I have to call out is one that I got completely and totally wrong, over and over again for years, and I'm so glad I was wrong. The most pleasant surprise this season has been Austin Wells' ability behind the plate. I always thought that Austin Wells could hit, so his recent offensive performance comes as little surprise. I was completely resolute that he would never be able to provide even below-average defense behind the plate, and last season's cameo did little to change my impression. At best, I thought Wells could moonlight behind the plate once or twice per week while playing 1B/OF/DH for the rest of his appearances. His progression behind the plate has been one of the most impressive Yankee developmental stories I've witnessed in recent years. As a minor leaguer, Wells really refined his hand placement and movement as the pitch arrived to the mitt to become a better framer; he moves much more instinctively behind the plate as a bigger body to block balls, something I never thought he'd be able to do; and he's improved his throwing to the point of being more than adequate. In the aggregate, he's a plus defensive catcher and better than above-average offensively. Wells is blossoming into a star at catcher. The Yankees were right and I was wrong on that one.

On the negative side, my biggest surprise has been Anthony Volpe's struggles. At the end of last season, I thought Volpe would refine the mechanics he used from the chicken parm game through the end of the season while narrowing his approach. That guy, combined with good defense, would be an All-Star. Instead, Volpe made wholesale changes to try to change the hitter he's always been, and despite a hot start, the league figured out that he couldn't do any real damage with that swing. He's spent the rest of the season trying to find something that I don't think can be found until the off-season. I noted my surprise and concern regarding Volpe's changes prior to the start of the season, and my concerns were well-founded, even as those changes received gushes from the New York media and fanbase. I really didn't expect to reach the end of Volpe's second season with this many doubts about his future.

To end on a good note, let's go with one bonus surprise: Luis Gil! I never expected Gil to stick in the rotation for the whole year coming back from Tommy John. Not only has he stuck, he now has three real pitches and just enough fastball command to make it all work as a starter. I didn't expect that to happen at all; in fact, I really expected Gil to wind up factoring in as a reliever in the season's second half after further seasoning at AAA in the first half. Gil has pitched well enough to be a factor in Rookie of the Year voting, and I didn't see that coming in 2024.

Steve asks: You said that you were going to write an article about watching the Scranton Rail Riders in Syracuse last week. Did I miss it and can I have the link?

Unfortunately, life gets in the way of even the best laid plans sometimes. No, I didn't get to write-up my full notes from the game this weekend. Anyway, I'll give you the CliffsNotes version now:

• Jasson Dominguez is ready to be on the MLB roster right now, and I'd go as far to say that he'd be one of the 5 best players on the team. Every tool is apparent. In the outfield during warmups, Dominguez took a minute to get loose, but once he did, he was throwing laser-beams from 180 feet to his throwing partner. His plus-arm is back. In his first at-bat, he swung through a 96 MPH fastball up and away. The pitcher, Blade Tidwell, tried to go back to it on the next pitch, but Dominguez showed real hand and forearm strength by muscling the ball to the opposite field gap for a homer. Throughout the night, Dominguez showed the ability to make contact all over the zone, with a good feel for the strike zone. His right-handed swing, which I saw in his last AB, is definitely behind his left-handed swing, but he should make enough contact from that side to be useful against left-handed pitching. On some level, Dominguez almost makes too much contact, which leads to some suboptimal balls in play. However, Dominguez looks smooth defensively with great speed, and he made some great plays with good jumps. He's ready. (NOTE: the Yanks called up Dominguez a few days after I wrote this)

• Tanner Tully really is a gutsy pitcher. His fastball was 86-88 all night (sometimes dipping below 86), but he moved the ball around with a lot of different speeds and looks to get outs. He reminds me a lot of Nestor Cortes before he gained velocity. Unfortunately for Tully, I don't see any velocity gains coming, and at that level of velocity, I don't see an MLB future.

• Jon Berti looks great. He's running beautifully, and he did a good job in a completely unexpected place: LF. I had completely forgotten that Berti spent some time in LF earlier in his career. He might make a great platoon partner for Verdugo, though I still would have preferred one of the numerous platoon options that were available on the trade market. That said, Berti can help the Yanks at the plate against lefties, off the bench as a defensive replacement, and as a pinch runner. (NOTE: with Dominguez up, the Yanks likely don't need Berti in LF)

• I love Ben Rice, and I still believe in his future, but he looks nothing like the guy I saw at AA last year. At the plate, he looks very tense, trying to hit a 5-run homer in every plate appearance. Defensively, he had one of the worst games I've ever seen from a professional at any level, at any position. I counted 5 misplays, only one of which went for an error. The learning curve at 1B appears to be very stiff for Rice, and he really struggles to read fly balls that he needs to drift back for. He also looks like he's lacking confidence (and he really took a harsh bit of heckling from the crowd; it was wrong, and I really felt for the guy). There's still a lot to like about Rice, and I hope an off-season to shake off some of this season's lows will help get him right again.

• TJ Rumfield is one of my favorite prospects in the system, even if I don't think he's got gobs of upside. His swing is just not built for any lift, and I couldn't in good conscience project more than 15 HR in the Majors. I also think he looks more twisted up at the plate with whatever torquing he's doing with his right leg to begin his swing. However, he's a gifted defender at 1B and he makes tons of contact in the zone. He's got above-average raw power, so if he can continue stroking line drives, some of those might go out in Yankee Stadium. I'm on the fence, but he might be capable of grabbing the 1B job next year at some point, at least as one half of a platoon.

• Ian Hamilton is really close to coming back an making an impact. His fastball was really lively, living right at 96 MPH with good command of it at the top of the strike zone. His slider command still has a bit further to go, but the pitch looks good when he finds it. He pitched more than an inning, and that would be huge for the Yankee bullpen. (NOTE: Hamilton has since come up and looks great).

• Lou Trivino got yanked early after some lucky breaks for the Syracuse Mets, but I thought he looked just OK. His velocity is down from where I remember it being in his prime (92-93 MPH), and his stuff doesn't quite look sharp yet. Trivino definitely needs more time. I wonder if he'll run out of time to be a factor this year.

• Oswald Peraza just doesn't have any juice in his swing. I don't think he'll ever hit enough to be a satisfactory regular on a championship team. His defensive actions continue to be excellent, though.

• I like Jorbit Vivas. He might be the 2B of the future.

• My biggest surprise of the night: JC Escarra. I've heard a lot about his performance this year, and I was all set to say that it's a fluke from an older veteran beating up on younger talent and that he's not a catcher...but I'm not so sure about that. Escarra looked far better than I expected behind the plate. He throws decently, calls a good game, moves well behind the plate, though his framing needs a bit of work. More surprisingly, the bat really works. He can make line drive contact all over the zone, and though I don't think he's anything close to an impact bat, I don't think his bat would hurt at all. In fact, I think he's a better prospect behind the plate than Carlos Narvaez. I wonder if the Yanks will give him a look as a backup for the bench in next year's camp.

Alan B. asks: Andy: Now that Cody Poteet is almost finished with  his rehab assignment, and Clayton Beeter is pitching out of the bullpen in AA (why not in AAA is beyond my understanding after what I've seen there this year) what do you think the odds are  that either or both would be in the Yankees postseason bullpen?

I think there's a high likelihood that Poteet factors into the playoff bullpen. I really like his fastball/change-up combination, and he's a guy who can throw multiple innings. His stuff is well suited to that role, and I expect him to be up any day now.

Selfishly, I was hoping Beeter would go to AAA so I would have some quantifiable numbers on his performance (Statcast is in AAA ballparks, but not AA ballparks). Beeter had a shoulder injury, and I'm shocked that he returned this year. Beeter sure seemed to have his strikeout stuff working in his first game back, which tells me his stuff is likely in pretty good shape. If that is truly the case, he may yet be the bullpen "shot in the arm" I hoped he'd be this year. He'd need to pitch for at least a little bit in the regular season to make him a realistic option for the playoffs, but with his stuff, I'd say there's a non-zero chance of that happening.

The chances that one of Beeter and Poteet are in the playoff bullpen? I'd say 75/25. For both? Maybe 20%? That's a higher percentage than I'd have given last week, so that's saying something.