SSTN Mailbag: Soto, Wells, The ALDS Matchup, And ALDS Roster Construction!

After a long season, the playoffs are finally here. The Yankees have had a nice, long break as the first seed in the American League. Regardless of what you think about that break, it means that the Yankees accomplished the first step to a winning season: they were the best team in the American League. While all fans want sheer dominance, a 94-win season is nothing to sneeze at, particularly in a year in which parity is at a recent high. The Yankees earned the right to take a bit of a break and get physically and mentally prepared to play in the ALDS.

That break has also given me a bit of time to watch other teams around the league. While most of the Wild Card round featured sweeps (including a sweep of the Astros, who I still can't stand), there were still plenty of close games with exciting, playoff-changing moments. Frankly, last night's Mets-Brewers game was one of the best games I've seen all year. By the time the Brewers called on Devin Williams to get the save, I was sure the Brewers were going to pull out a series win by the skin of their teeth. Instead, we saw some incredibly feisty at-bats by the Mets, culminating most critically in an ultimately game-winning 3-run homer to the opposite field by Pete Alonso. It was an incredibly electric moment. The stadium in Milwaukee was as loud as any I'd ever heard prior to Alonso's homer. Once it was clear the homer cleared the fence, you could hear a pin drop. The stadium was so quiet that ESPN had to mute the on-field mic so that the Mets' "exuberance" wouldn't be caught on a hot mic. Regardless of what many have said about the quality of play across baseball this year, this game was a microcosm of the quality of baseball we've seen thus far in the playoffs.

All of this is to say: buckle up. No matter how the Yankees finish, I have a feeling this playoff run is going to keep us on the edge of our seats.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about Juan Soto's impending free agency, Austin Wells, the Yankees' ALDS matchup with the Royals, and roster construction during the ALDS! Let's get at it:

Fuster asks: 12 years - $424M in 2019 for a 27 year old outfielder with good speed and good defense as well as eye-popping offensive numbers 

is the market in 2025 going to yield more than $500M for a 26 year old outfielder with average speed, sub-par defense and eye-popping offense?

Fuster is obviously referring to the extension that Mike Trout got from the Angels in 2019 [NOTE: An earlier version of this post said that this was the extension that Soto turned down - thanks to reader, yankeesblog, for the catch]. It seemed at least somewhat nuts at the time for Soto to turn down such a similarly massive deal from the Nationals, but all he's done since then is cement himself as the best all-around left-handed hitter in the sport. He is a generational hitter who will still be just 26 next season, which is incredible to think about.

Soto's greatest flaw is his defense, but he has proven that Yankee Stadium's small right field dimensions hide many of Soto's flaws, and he is capable of playing roughly average defense there in the aggregate. With his offensive profile, that's a perennial superstar. In fact, given his skillset both offensively and defensively, I think that Yankee Stadium is uniquely suited to helping Soto produce the most value.

That said, there will certainly be a bidding war for Soto this off-season. I expect the bidding to go well beyond $500 million. I have no reporting or sources to go on here, but my hunch is that Scott Boras will angle to make Soto a $50 million per year player. Given that the Mets are sure to be in on the bidding, I think Soto will get it. My back of the napkin math brings me to something on the order of 12 years, $600 million. I could be wrong, but I am almost certain that he'll eclipse $500 million in total value.

Steven asks: What happened with Austin Wells at the end of the year? He looked like a rookie of the year candidate and then he fell off a cliff in September. Is he hurt, or did he just slump like crazy?

Steven is absolutely right - Wells was truly terrible at the plate in September, hitting .111 with a .411 OPS (no, none of that is a misprint - it was really that bad). If you sense some similarities with what the Orioles went through with Adley Rutschman this season, I think you're on the right track. Anecdotally, Austin Wells took a lot of foul tips in rough spots throughout August, and between that and his increased playing time, I think he was beat up andworn down in September. To answer the question more succinctly, I don't think Wells was mired in a slump as much as he was hurting.

Given that fact, why the Yankees let him catch so much in September when they basically had the playoffs locked up is beyond me. If anyone needed a break, it was clearly Austin Wells. In fact, I'd argue that there is no single player who benefits from the time off this week than Austin Wells. Hopefully, some of the nagging muscles, tendons, and bruises had some chance to heal this week, and we get August Austin Wells in the playoffs.

Make no mistake: Austin Wells is critical to the Yankees' success this postseason. Statistically, Wells is one of the Yankees' biggest contributors behind Soto and Judge when the Yankees win. He is a formidable clean-up hitter against right-handed pitching, and really protects Aaron Judge in the lineup when he's hitting well. Getting Wells healthier this week will hopefully pay huge dividends in the ALDS.

Joe asks: What do you make of the Yankees' matchup with the Royals in the ALDS? Are they a pushover, or should we be worried?

On paper, the Yankees are a significantly better team, but the obvious answer is that the games are played on the field, not on paper. Every time the Yankees played the Royals this year, I sat back and said that they play a lot tougher than their record and overall talent indicate. They play good defense, run the bases well, and have some really good pitching.

The Royals have a good top of the lineup, with Sal Perez and Bobby Witt Jr. anchoring the offense and Vinny Pasquantino and Michael Massey serving as useful role players, but they are really thin otherwise. Yankee pitching should be able to maneuver through the Royals lineup.

My single biggest concern is the Royals' likely Game 2 and Game 5 starter, Cole Ragans. Yankees' struggle against left-handed pitching, and Ragans might be the best lefty on the planet right now, with a bowling ball fastball that can touch triple digits and a slider that just falls off of the rope as it dives away from the strike zone (or back into it front and back-door). The Yankees have not found an answer to combat good lefties all year, and my bet is that the Yankees will struggle against Ragans, so they really need to bring their A-game.

I still see the Yankees winning this series in 4 games, because the Yankees are much deeper and should be able to neutralize the Royals' offense; I just have real concerns if the series goes to 5 games.

Alan B. asks: But Andy, maybe this is for tomorrow, but with 3 off days in the ALDS, how many pitchers wou[l]d you carry for the ALD[S]? Me, I'm carrying 11. That extra position player would be more useful.

If it were up to me, yes, I would carry 11 pitchers at this point and add an extra position player, though I strongly doubt that's what the Yankees will actually do. 3 off-days give the bullpen plenty of time for recovery, though with Clarke Schmidt available out of the bullpen in Games 1 and 2, it means that Luis Gil might just be sitting around to look pretty on the bench, effectively giving the team one fewer pitcher than what they have on paper.

The funny bit is that I am suddenly partial to the idea of keeping all of Dominguez, Verdugo, and Grisham on the roster. Grisham hits velocity better than anyone not named Judge and Soto, and might well be the Yankees' best outfield option against Ragans, unless they are willing to play Jon Berti in LF (if he doesn't play 1B in that matchup). In order to accomplish that, carrying just 11 pitchers would be a necessity. Again, I just don't see the Yankees doing that.