Days all seem to run together sometimes. Normally, in the Mailbag prior to a holiday, I like to wish all of our readers a happy and healthy holiday. In writing last week's Mailbag, I somehow managed to miss that Thanksgiving was this Thursday. With that in mind, a belated Happy Thanksgiving to all of our readers - I hope you all had a happy and safe holiday, full with enough food and drink to put you in something of a stupor as you read this.
I had a very good Thanksgiving, with more food and drink than any one person needs. Most importantly, holidays are a good excuse to spend plenty of time with family and good friends, and I'm lucky enough to have a long weekend full of friends and family. For me, it's a much-needed break, one to which I've been looking forward for weeks now. Given that fact, this week's intro will be a bit shorter than normal before we get to the questions, but before we get to that, I wanted to make a quick housekeeping note. You will see another post from me tomorrow morning. I am nearly done with my comprehensive offseason plan, complete with different options and scouting reports. It's going to be a push to get it done for tomorrow morning, so tomorrow morning's post will either be the offseason plan I've been promising or a shorter post in its place. If the offseason plan doesn't get posted tomorrow, it'll come during the week. Just wanted to keep all of you in the loop.
As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about Juan Soto, the continuing evolution of the role of a starting pitcher, and an idea to swap some large salaries! Let's get at it:
Matt B. and others ask: What do you think Juan Soto's contract will ultimately look like? Every day, it seems like there's a new rumor, and $700 million seems to be the new $600 million if that makes sense.
This question came in multiple forms to the Mailbag over the last few weeks, but Matt's gets to the point quickly. Honestly? I have zero clue what Soto's next deal will look like, and I'm not sure anyone other than the Mets and Yankees do either. I would be shocked if he signs anywhere other than New York; it's just a question of choosing between the Bronx or Queens. As we know, Boras' team loves leaking a variety of misdirection to the media, and he uses some familiar lieutenants in print to do so. I won't name names, but when you see specific money and year figures for Soto's next deal from seemingly reputable sources, just assume that they're doing the bidding of Boras' team.
On the flip-side, I'm sure we'll start seeing leaks about teams being wary to push a deal to the 15-year, $700 million threshold. That's MLB teams countering Boras' strategy. It's all a giant game, and none of us will know who blinks before it's all over.
No matter what, the following is certain: Juan Soto is about to make an amount of money most of us could only dream about; Scott Boras will be quite happy with his commission off of Soto's contract; and the team that signs Soto will have no problem paying that contract, even if they cry poverty after the fact and use that deal as reason to skimp on the roster elsewhere. At the end of the day, it's the fans that get taken for a ride in all of it.
Make no mistake: Soto has become a generationally great hitter, and his age and likely aging curve for star players who arrive early make him a strong bet to actually perform up to his contract in the first 8-9 years of the deal. Soto has earned the right to seek whatever the free market will bear for his services. Kudos to Soto. Regardless of what the actual numbers wind up looking like, I hope Soto's free agent jaunt ends with Soto back in pinstripes.
For the purposes of my offseason plan for the Yankees, I have accounted for Soto at $50 million AAV. Maybe that's off, but based on the way the tea leaves are arranging themselves around the plate, that's my best "dumb" guess.
Fuster asks: Strikeouts are boring. Besides that, they’re fascist.
and still it appears as though every organization, the Yankees included, wants their pitchers to strike out the other guys.
greater velocity, more unsettling, baffling trajectories for breaking balls..... more uncertainty in the minds of batters and what may well be greater stress on the body of the hurlers
leading to the question of whether baseball's starters are going to be expected to throw fewer (and fewer) innings and be replaced early in games?
is it going to be 5 innings and 27 starts (in the regular season) for the starters?
That might be my favorite line from Bull Durham, though it might just be because it became my credo when I lost my fastball. I've actually been thinking about Fuster's stated concerns exactly for a while now. I also know for a fact that MLB has been concerned about the trends on this front as well.
The goal of baseball front offices over the last decade and change has been to optimize rosters and player usage to the absolute furthest extent possible. Advancement in technology and the manner in which it's used has led to significant leaps in pitch design and mechanical assessment to create pitchers and stuff that is leaps and bounds beyond even what pitchers were capable of producing even a decade ago. The obvious counter to that is the rise in pitcher injuries, which have lead to teams' policy of limiting innings and pitches.
This growing trend is obviously of concern to MLB. Multiple surveys have been published showing that baseball is losing some of its ability to tell a story with fans as the starting pitcher has been de-emphasized. I would not be surprised to see MLB further limit the number of pitchers on a staff, which would force starting pitchers to pitch more innings. That would also force pitchers to conserve a bit more, which should theoretically lead to fewer arm injuries.
However, many of the pitching labs that have become ubiquitous across the baseball landscape are pushing the idea that the next generation of pitcher will be healthier and more capable of adding innings than this generation. Why? Those labs are pushing the idea that through optimization of mechanics and training regimens from a young age, pitchers will be healthier in the long-run. I also personally do not know how much of today's pitching landscape can be attributed to the rise in velocity and stuff versus the manner in which pitchers from this generation were abused by coaches in both competitive travel ball leagues and the showcase circuit as adolescents. With more guardrails in place to protect pitchers as adolescents, I wonder if the pitching labs have a point, even if their statement is somewhat self-promoting.
MLB and the baseball ecosystem is concerned enough about the growing trend among starting pitcher usage that I think we will eventually see a rebound away from the trend of shrinking innings, starts, and pitch counts. As a result, I'm not sure we'll see tremendously fewer strikeouts, but we'll certainly see a return to more autocracy on the mound.
Michael G. asks: Thoughts - Bellinger for Rodon, then sign a fa pitcher use bellinger at 1b and of insurance.
Candelario for stroman , candelario plays 3b unless bellinger is needed in the of.
Essentially moving money from the rotation to the lineup. Salaries are similar we'd probably have to kick in a little money or some lesser prospects. No long term commitments and no one playing positions they haven't played significantly in the past.
This is one way to add some talent to areas of clear roster weakness, though it does make the starting pitching depth thinner even with a free agent acquisition. My issue is with the players being acquired.
I used to like Candelario a fair amount, but his range has diminished to the point where he is almost unusable at 3B. He still has pop and a feel for putting the barrel on the baseball, but I think he's firmly in his decline phase.
I was pretty against signing Cody Bellinger last season, and he regressed significantly, putting his bottom-line numbers more in-line with his peripherals. Bellinger is expensive, and though he'd likely be a plus defensive 1B, I just don't buy that he'll be a consistent performer offensively. He's also proven to be rather injury prone, and at this point, we can't say his injuries are flukes.
Obviously, Rodon's contract doesn't look great, but I think he's coming around. Rodon is a guy who seems to give it everything he's got when he's on the bump, and you want those guys around, even if they're flawed. With premium stuff and some success this season, I'd keep Rodon around this season.
As far as Stroman is concerned, he's a nice sixth starter, but not much more at this point; I think Michael is on the right track with his proposal for Stroman, I just think there's a better move out there.
I do think the Yankees should explore some large salary swaps this offseason; my offseason plan includes one or two such moves. I'm just not sure I like this particular iteration.
