SSTN Mailbag: Rookie Struggles, Lost Opportunities, And I Play The GM!

Last night was frustrating. As much as I try to project a hyper-logical front, I'm much more "lively," (to put it kindly; my family might refer to me as manic) when I am watching the Yankees live. There's no sugarcoating it: the Yankees have been awful lately. Last night felt almost like the cherry on top. From the first inning, I knew the team would lose. I hung in there for the full 9 innings, despite my better judgement. It felt like watching a game in a trance. I was mad...at first. By the 5th inning though, I settled into a strange state of malaise. I've been the guy around here talking about the law of averages and statistical regression; that a slump like this was coming; and that it won't always be this bad.

Last night's game was enough to stir something of an existential crisis. Why do we watch baseball? For the diehards like us, we eat, breathe, and sleep the game. I think about baseball when I'm walking to and from my car in the morning; I have random baseball conversations with strangers who are wearing the hat of some obscure team that only they and I know about; I break into cold sweats when I don't know where my mitt is; and I care about the Yankees, despite the fact that the team has made it crystal clear that they don't care about fans like me.

Yet, it goes a bit deeper. Many people talk about the parallels between sports and life. We like to buy into those lessons, because they give sports a sense of purpose. While I subscribe to some of those beliefs when sports are taught correctly, I think those thoughts are often a bit grandiose. After all, baseball is a game, and there is so much more in this world that is important than sports.

However, we watch baseball as an escape from harsher realities. We bond with family, friends, and complete strangers over this game. Sometimes, baseball is a cherry on top for the best days. Other times, it is the only escape from the worst days. Baseball may be just a game, but it is more than an avenue for escapism. Baseball at its best creates community. I think too often, Yankee management forgets about the community that supports the machine. The team has fans that care, and too often, it feels like the Yankees don't care back. Sometimes, that lack of understanding causes fans with good intentions to lash out.

I had someone tell me recently that they found it hysterical just how crazy Yankee fans were getting over a slump, and when phrased that way, they were right, but I don't think that gets to the root of it. I tried last night to understand why I (and likely many other Yankee fans) was so angry, and I think Yankee management's arrogance and willingness to take their fanbase for granted is right near the top of the list. The players are doing their best to win; the coaches, support staff, player development, and roster builders are doing their best; I don't think any of us could argue that management (Hal, Randy Levine, and his assorted cronies and bean counters) is doing their best to bring a championship to the Bronx, nor are they doing their best to build a community. Streaks like the one the Yanks have been on of late help bring those realizations to the surface, and they're never gone even when the team is playing well. I think that is true for many Yankee fans, and it's a sad state of affairs. I hope the Yankees turn it around, but if they do, it won't be because ownership supported the effort, and that's sad.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about the struggles of rookie hitters when they first reach the Majors, the Yankees' lost opportunities, and I'll play GM for a couple of trades! Let's get at it:

Matt asks: There has been a lot of discussion lately about the struggles that all rookie hitters seem to have lately when they reach the major leagues. It got me thinking about the Yankee rookies we've seen struggle. What are your thoughts about the team's struggles in this regard and about the league in general?

Matt is right; this has been a very popular topic around baseball recently. I've seen articles in The Athletic and numerous other publications trying to sort out the reasons for these struggles. Among Yankee rookies, we've seen Anthony Volpe, Austin Wells, and Everson Pereira all struggle mightily upon their first taste of MLB action. As Yankee fans, we often look at those struggles without thinking about the context about the league as a whole. We also have to watch the exciting, young Orioles team get contributions from the likes of Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, who seemingly had almost no adjustment period upon joining MLB.

The reality is as Matt states: scores of young players are really struggling to make the transition from AAA to the Majors, more so than in previous generations. Frankly, when I started looking around the league at this phenomenon, it made me see at least Volpe and Wells' initial struggles in a new light (I think Pereira has real pitch recognition and swing control issues that place him in a different bucket). I don't think there is any one reason for this development, rather it's a perfect storm of events:

1. A much overlooked reason: the contraction of the minor leagues and the limit on the number of full-season professional players teams are allowed to employ at one time. We don't talk about this enough. The Quad-A type player used to stick around for a long time, often filling spots at AAA for depth. Teams are employing far fewer of those types of players, preferring to use precious roster capital on real "prospects" (including fringy prospects who themselves will eventually become Quad-A players, but aren't at that level yet). That means there are many fewer pitchers with MLB experience at AAA, so hitters aren't seeing experienced pitchers who have a multitude of ways to get hitters out. They are often facing pitching prospects who may not be trying to achieve bottom-line performance; they are facing a pitcher who might be working on something specific as opposed to trying their hardest to make an out. That creates a development gap when hitters reach the Majors.

2. Pitchers are just that much better than they used to be. Average fastball velocity has climbed by roughly 4 MPH in the last decade plus; their breaking and off-speed stuff has quite literally been developed in pitching labs with high speed cameras and pitch tracking systems to create the most break, velocity, and deception; oh, and they all are releasing the ball 52-54 feet from home plate, making that stuff look even deadlier.

3. MLB has played games with the rules at AAA. AAA has used a mix of the Automated Ball/Strike System and the challenge system since the beginning of last year. That has given both minor league hitters and pitchers a skewed experience. We know that last season, pitchers frequently fell behind in counts, allowing hitters to both take an excess of walks and get much more hittable pitches in the strike zone. None of that matches what those hitters see in the big leagues.

4. Pitch limits in the minors. Confused by this one? It's not intuitive initially, but I believe that as teams are protecting their best pitchers more in the minors, it means that more innings are filled by guys who won't make a big league roster. That means minor league hitters spend more time facing off against sub-par pitching, even at AAA.

I don't think there's a good answer for much of this (except for possibly lowering the mound or expanding roster maximums in the minors, the latter of which definitely won't happen). I think for a while at least, this will be the new reality for players trying to adapt to the Majors, and teams will need to adjust by giving players a lot more runway to fail at the Major League level.

Brian asks: I have read here and elsewhere that the Yankees lost out on opportunities to improve the team both before the season and since the start of the season with players like Bellinger and Arraez. What is your opinion on that?

I noted before the season that I thought the Yankees really needed a 3B, and that Matt Chapman made a lot of sense as his price was clearly dropping. So yes, I thought the Yankees stopped short of really finishing their roster building this off-season. But right now, let's play a game. Without looking at anything else, which one of these players is Gleyber Torres in the month of June?

• Player A: .232/.260/.313, .573 OPS

• Player B: .176/.250/.351, .601 OPS

• Player C: .294/.347/.370, .716 OPS

• Player D: .229/.340/.337, .678 OPS

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Player A is Luis Arraez

Player B is Gleyber Torres

Player C is Cody Bellinger

Player D is Matt Chapman

Suddenly, the grass doesn't look much greener, does it? Arraez has been awful this month, with fewer walks, less power, and even worse defense than Torres. Bellinger has made a lot of empty contact with worrying strikeout and walk trends, though at least he's getting on-base for the moment (a pulse is good enough to help the Yankees right now). Chapman has played all-world defense, drawn walks, and likely would hit for a lot more power outside of San Francisco.

Chapman would definitely help the Yankees right now, while Bellinger would probably help the Yankees right now. As much as everyone liked Arraez and declared him the second-coming of Tony Gwynn, the reality is far different. Did the Yankees miss opportunities? Yes, but I don't think those opportunities were as significant as they're made out to be.

Steven asks: Put your GM cap on. Not just trade targets but actual trades that could realistically happen at the deadline. What would you do to improve the team?

Since it has to be realistic, I don't think there are a ton of teams that will be looking to shed real talent. The reality of expanded playoffs means that so many teams will still have a shot at the playoffs in a month. Two teams I would target are the Nationals and the White Sox. The Nationals are getting close to being able to contend with their young core, but are a season or two away, while the White Sox need to burn it all down. Here's what I'd do:

Target: Lane Thomas, Washington Nationals

Thomas is a versatile outfielder who can cover all three outfield spots. He brings speed on the basepaths and is a right-handed bat that can platoon with Verdugo, which is desperately needed, as we've seen time and again that Verdugo cannot hit lefty pitching. This isn't a splashy move, but platooning Verdugo while grabbing some speed on the bases will do more for the Yankees than some of the splashy moves that have been discussed.

The Yankees have Trent Grisham, but he's not as good a fit as some hoped. With one more year of team control, I'm not sure the Nats want to deal Thomas, but I think they'd be smart to do so if they can get an asset or two back. The team is hardly spending money right now, so it can also take on some salary for the right price.

My proposal:

Yankees trade: OF Trent Grisham, OF Everson Pereira, and SP Trystan Vrieling

Nationals trade: OF Lane Thomas

If it seems expensive, it is. Grisham is owed a fair amount of money; to get the Nats to take him and deal Thomas, the Yanks will need to part with real prospects. Vrieling is a personal favorite, and I think he's a high probability big league starter, likely by the start of 2026, which coincides perfectly with the Nationals' window. Pereira, while significantly diminished as a prospect and out for the year with a UCL tear, he still has exciting tools that someone could use. It's not a splashy deal, but one that nets the Yankees a very usable playoff piece.

Target: Michael Kopech

This one isn't difficult to understand. If the Yanks get Kopech away from the Chicago dumpster fire, I think he'll be a lights-out reliever. Again, he comes with a year and a half of team control. He's a splashy move, and the Yanks have the prospects to make this happen.

My proposal:

Yankees trade: SP Brock Selvidge, SS Oswald Peraza

White Sox trade: RP Michael Kopech

I might be very light here, but Kopech's talent far outstrips his performance to this point. The White Sox would be lucky to jumpstart a rebuild with pieces like above for a relief pitcher, even a good one. If they wanted a low minors lottery ticket, I'd consider it, but I might want to add to the deal in that case.

This would be the start of my dealing while I went big game hunting.