SSTN Mailbag: Rizzo, A Braves Trade, And LeMahieu's Role!

(I wrote this on Thursday prior to the news about Clarke Schmidt's lat strain. Clearly, the Baseball Gods are punishing me for writing the intro below).

They just keep winning baseball games. Things are not perfect. The bench is thin, the bullpen is thinner, and there are even some holes in a league-leading offense. None of it has mattered much so far. The Yanks have hit a few speed bumps, to be sure, but even when it looks like they might fall into a slump as a team, they pick right back up and win both low-scoring and high-scoring games. I can't highlight this enough: the 2023 Yankees could not have performed like this even if everyone matched the best of their projections last year. The Yankees from July 2022 forward could not have performed like this. I think there is a good argument to be made that even with their flaws, the Yankees are one of the 3 best teams in all of baseball. That makes things fun again.

All of us know that this team needs to be supplemented, but we should also acknowledge that there is room for this roster to improve naturally. The team is getting healthier, as Kahnle and LeMahieu have returned, while Dominguez will surely lurk at AAA after finishing his rehab assignment as outfield depth, and two potential impact relievers work their way back from injury. Austin Wells has been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball, and I feel confident the law of averages will take over at some point. Oh, and the deepest rotation in baseball will seemingly add last season's Cy Young winner in relatively short order. As Yankee fans, many of us are frustrated by the World Series draught that hangs over every conversation about the team. For now though, I think we're allowed to enjoy the baseball this team is playing.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about Anthony Rizzo's decline, evaluate a trade match with the Braves, and determine DJ LeMahieu's proper role! Let's get at it:

Brian asks: Really simple question: is Anthony Rizzo cooked and if so, what should the Yankees do about it?

Regardless of what I think about Rizzo's ability to perform, everyone needs to understand that the Yankees are going to give Rizzo a very long leash to turn things around. He's a clubhouse leader who seemingly gets along with a large subset of the clubhouse and he's Aaron Judge's closest friend on the team. The Yankees aren't going to rock the boat unless they've given him 3 or 4 months to get things straightened out.

Unfortunately, yes, I think Rizzo is cooked as an everyday player. The extreme platoon splits he displayed earlier in his career have returned, so Rizzo is nearly unplayable against left-handed pitching. He's been above-average against right-handed pitching offensively overall, but he's not doing much damage in recent weeks. More worrisome, I think we're looking at a player who's reaction timing has diminished. Take a look at Rizzo's performance against fastballs over 94 MPH:

Ouch. Those who want to squint at something positive could point to the fact that his strikeout rate is decent and his xWOBA is above-average, but looking at his spray chart, the unlucky balls Rizzo has hit are primarily ground balls up the middle (not hits Rizzo will ever get with the way defenses are shaded against him). Most alarmingly, Rizzo has shown basically no pop against hard fastballs, with just 1 HR to show against a pitch he sees with real frequency.

If we add this to the fact that his play in the field continues to be inconsistent, at best, and bad at worst, and there's very little reason to keep Rizzo in the lineup other than the fact that he's a left-handed batter who can keep breaking ball pitchers honest.

Again, I think the Yankees are going to wait this out until the last possible second. There isn't going to be much on the trade market, and I'm not sure any of the kids (Rumfield or Rice) will be ready to make an immediate impact. Even playing LeMahieu at 1B against left-handed pitching is tough given Oswaldo Cabrera's declining performance. Ultimately, I think the Yankees will need to find some help at 1B, but I'm not sure from whence they'll find it.

Fuster asks: with Acuna out and Dominguez nearing return.

do you see an opportunity to trade Verdugo for one of the Braves' AA pitchers?

It's hard to know what to make of the Braves. They are far enough back in the NL East that if they don't turn it around reasonably fast, they'll be on the outside looking in on the NL East race, though they are perfectly in-range for the Wild Card. Losing Acuna and Strider really hurt, but they've also lost a ton of depth to injuries as well, particularly pitching depth. In fact, they've begun dipping into their top minor league prospects, and even some of them have gotten hurt as well. Top prospect, AJ Smith-Shawver, came up and promptly pulled his oblique, so the Braves are even thinner than imagined in the starting rotation.

In a vacuum, Verdugo is probably close to fair value for someone like Spencer Schwellenbach, one of the Braves' top-3 pitching prospects and generally considered the 3rd pitcher in that group. I love Schwellenbach, a former two-way player. He's athletic, throws hard with good secondary stuff, and he repeats his simple delivery beautifully. In fact, he just made his MLB debut.

The Braves could use an outfielder, but I don't think they'd do it at the expense of their current pitching depth, nor do I think the Yankees should give up Verdugo in a year that they're hunting for a championship.

David asks: What do you think DJ LeMahieu's role should be? 1B, 3B, Utility, or other?

My answer just a couple of weeks ago would have been very different. With Gleyber struggling and Jon Berti performing, I would have been fine with LeMahieu at 2B more frequently. Now, with Berti on the shelf and Gleyber hitting, I don't think the Yankees have a choice but to play DJ at 3B every day.

In an ideal world, I think DJ would split his time between 3B and 1B, picking up starts against lefties at 1B with Berti at 3B, but I get the sense that Berti will be out for a long time. Sadly, I don't think that the Yanks will get to use LeMahieu's versatility to its full advantage for a while.