SSTN Mailbag: Player Thoughts, Next Up, And Free Agents!

What a week, and I don't just mean for the Yankees. Sure, the series against the Tigers was disappointing, but it was also frigid. I'm not happy about the way the team played overall, but if I'm being honest, the Yankees were the least of my concerns this week.

For good, bad, or worse, I am a very competitive person, and I enjoy having outlets to get that competitiveness out of my system. I haven't played competitive baseball for a few years now since my shoulder and hip put me on the bench (though I have plans to get back eventually), I have exercised my competitive itch in other arenas. I have an obsessive streak, and games/sports that involve analyzing minutia to make improvement have always fascinated me. Some of you know about my golf habit; I am also an avid bowler. That said, I haven't bowled in a league since before my daughter was born. For the summer, I decided to get back into a league. All great fun, right? Well, my 2nd (!) practice session prior to the season this past Sunday didn't go exactly as planned.

After 3 strikes in a row, I lined up my 4th shot and fired away...the ball struck, but unfortunately, I also felt a sickening pop in my elbow, forearm, and hand. My first thought? "Wow, did I really just tear my UCL bowling after years of pitching?!?!?" A few days of throbbing pain running from my elbow to my hand have made very simple tasks difficult. Long story short, it doesn't appear that the genesis of the pain is my UCL (though it hasn't been ruled out completely). Instead...wait for it...I have tears to my flexor mass and the tendon sheath that runs through the inside of the forearm into the bottom of the hand. It is something that happens to pitchers and bowlers...it just doesn't have the fun punchline of saying I need Tommy John due to a bowling injury.

What does it all mean? Well, it's going to hurt for 6-8 weeks. This week, the pain is significant enough to really make typing for long stretches difficult. Thus, for this week alone, the Mailbag will be a bit shorter as I answer questions throughout the week prior to writing the opener on Friday morning. I'm typing a bit easier, but I'm practicing load management for now, and earlier this week, it was really a struggle to type. We'll be back to normal next week.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, I'll give my thoughts on the performance of some Yankees through the first couple of weeks, talk about who the next guys up in the Yankee rotation would be, and look at prospective free agents! Let's get at it:

David H. asks: Can you give me your thoughts on the performance of some of the more critical members of the Yankees early this season? These are also guys that have had some surprising performances this year. How many of these are for real?

• Ben Rice

• Carlos Rodon

• Jasson Dominguez

• Devin Williams

• Paul Goldschmidt

• Anthony Volpe

• Jazz [Chisholm]

Let's walk through the list!

• Ben Rice - I am so beyond thrilled by Ben Rice's early season performance. He is hitting the ball incredibly hard, and many of his peripheral numbers indicate that his current stats are far from a matter of luck. In fact, if you compared the Statcast rankings for Rice and Judge without knowing which was which, it would be pretty easy to flip the two. However, he is not going to hit like Babe Ruth all season. I still do not see evidence that he's closed his biggest gap from last season (which I noted prior to his call-up): he struggles mightily against off-speed pitches. Some of this is an issue of reps; there just aren't that many good off-speed pitches in the minors now with fewer Quad-A pitchers at AAA with MLB experience. Rice has to finish off his development on that front in the Majors, and it will cause a slump at some point. However, I think Rice's strong swing decisions have allowed him to wait and hunt fastballs. As long as he continues to do that, he'll be a very productive bat.

• Carlos Rodon - I am not terribly concerned by his start, though I know many Yankee fans are fed up with Rodon. Rodon had an excellent first outing, and like his bad starts in previous seasons, his 2nd and 3rd start were undone by 1 or 2 innings (batters, really) where he allowed things to get away from him. However, he has provided length (relatively speaking), critical for a pitching staff that is very lean at the moment. I also see some really, really good signs that indicate excellent future performance. In the early going, Rodon is allowing fewer hits than at any time in his career, at 5.7 H/9, which is in-line with his best campaigns; his strikeout rate is up closer to what it was in his best season at better than 28% (well above-average, and nearly elite); and he's inducing more soft contact than he ever has in the past. I also really like the mix of pitches he's throwing this year. The change-up he threw against the Tigers which led to a 3-run homer was a well located pitch; it just wasn't dropping the same way in the cold. I know that sounds like excuses, but it isn't; Rodon needs to execute throughout an entire start. I think he can do it, as he's done it for stretches. I also think this is the best stuff we've seen from Rodon qualitatively. I'm not worried, and still believe he can be an adequate #2 starter.

  
  

• Jasson Dominguez - He's young, and there are going to be some really high peaks and really low valleys. Importantly, I think he looks the part at the plate, even if the results haven't been there yet. When the bats are working, he's a menace on the basepaths and a really instinctive baserunner. I don't love that the Yankees are subbing him out for defense in the early going; it has to be a hit to his confidence knowing that the Yankees don't trust him out there. The Yankees need to just let the kid play.

• Devin Williams - I am very worried about Devin Williams. It's true that he's had slow starts before, but the quality of his stuff just isn't there. He has a tendency to be wild, and adding the pressure of New York may not be a good mix. His other stuff isn't good enough if the Airbender isn't working, and I'm worried the league is catching up to the pitch. He needs to start planting it at the bottom of the zone to be successful. I have real concerns here.

• Paul Goldschmidt - I'm going to stick with my opinion from before the season; he'll make a lot of contact, but the power is diminished. There's little question but that he's better than anyone the Yankees rolled out last season, and I really like Goldy at the top of the lineup against left-handed pitching, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him get a breather occasionally against good righties once Stanton returns so that Rice's bat fits in the lineup.

• Anthony Volpe - He looks almost identical to my expectations for him. He's excellent defensively and I think his current batting line is much closer to my expectations: a .240ish batting average with pop and a few more walks than last season. He'll be streaky, but that's still a far superior player to who Volpe was in his first two seasons.

  
  

• Jazz Chisholm - He is a streaky player who will strike out a ton and look lost when he's on a cold streak. That's where Jazz is at right now. When he comes out of it, he'll go on a tear to even it all out. I have no concerns here.

Mark asks: Who is next up in the rotation when we finally kick Carrasco to the curb and send Warren down?

Well, Schmidt should be back next week and has looked excellent on his rehab assignment, so one of those guys is about to lose his rotation spot. As for guys coming back from the minors...I really wonder if the Yankees are going to stretch out Brent Headrick. He looked really good, enough so that he didn't deserve to get optioned to the minors, a procedural move that had more to do with the fact that he was the only guy with an option remaining in the bullpen besides Fernando Cruz. His velocity has climbed two ticks, which has made him a different pitcher. He might be the next best depth option.

After that, it's waiting for some of the kids to be ready. Cam Schlittler and Zach Messinger are likely the next kids who could be ready in the rotation. After them, I do believe that last year's first round pick, Ben Hess, could be a very fast riser through the system. He had an absolutely electric first minor league start at A+ Hudson Valley. It would not shock me if he's an option by August.

Brian asks: Now that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has signed long term, who are the most realistic free agent targets for the Yankees in the coming years?

The free agent market is going to be a bit thin at the top after next offseason. Kyle Tucker just made himself a boatload of money, in all likelihood, and I'm hoping it's coming from the Yankees. After that, I don't think there will be a truly transformational free agent until Gunnar Henderson years and years from now. It really highlights how incorrectly frugal the Yanks were on the free agent market over the last 7 years when they didn't sign a SS or Bryce Harper.