SSTN Mailbag: Plan B, Soto Vs. The Field, And Potential Rule 5 Losses!

I feel like I blinked and we went from the end of the World Series to the Winter Meetings. In recent years, the Winter Meetings have been less interesting than in years past. Many people inside the sport chalk this up to the rise in technology which allows GMs and team officials to meet in a similar fashion to how they do in hotel meeting rooms, but as someone who travels a significant amount for work, I can tell you that there are things you can accomplish in-person that is often difficult over a phone or video chat software. In the context of baseball, I think those in-person relationships matter more when the talent pool is greater. Frankly, last season's free agent crop just wasn't that interesting beyond Judge and Ohtani, and there was a sense that it was really a two-team race for each guy, so there weren't that many teams involved.

This year, you have just one generational player available dominating the discussion, and his free agency bid is more open. There is also a significant crop of very good players at the top of the market looking to cash in as soon as Soto signs, so I think the Winter Meetings stand to be as interesting as they've been in a few years.

I admit to being very curious to see how the Soto situation plays out. Obviously, I hope he remains a Yankee; I think Soto was built for the bright lights of New York, he fits as perfectly next to Judge in the lineup as any hitter on the planet, and relative to his era, Soto controls a plate appearance in a few players can. I came to appreciate just how much Soto's presence near the top of a lineup can positively impact the guys around him, and every team should want a guy like that on their team. It will be an interesting few days, to say the least.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about Plan B if the Yanks miss out on Juan Soto, debate whether it's better for the Yanks to sign Soto or go with Plan B, and look at the Yankees' potential losses in the Rule 5 Draft. Let's get at it:

Anthony T. asks: I know you've said all offseason that you didn't want to project a plan b if Soto goes elsewhere, but with so many teams involved, I think it's interesting to know what that alternate plan looks like. What should/will the Yankees do if Soto leaves?

Alas, I agree Anthony; it's time to talk about what Plan B looks like, at least in broad strokes.

Without Soto in the fold, the Yankees will likely have roughly $60 million to work with under the top luxury tax threshold. I really don't expect the Yankees to spend beyond that threshold if they miss out on Soto.

A lot of people are making Cody Bellinger the centerpiece of the Yankees' offseason plan if Soto leaves, and I just don't get it. Sure, he's likely to pop a few more homers at Yankee Stadium and he's a good defender at both 1B and CF, but that contract is absurd and there's enough trouble under the hood that I wouldn't touch Bellinger with a ten foot pole. I didn't want him last season at the price the Cubs paid, and that opinion has aged just fine. I'll double down and leave him to someone else.

Without Soto, the Yankees have holes to fill in both the outfield and the infield, not to mention the fact that the team needs to boost the pitching staff. My list of moves looks something like this:

1. Sign Willy Adames to play 3B. He's going to cost $25ish million AAV, but he has significant pop from the right side (something the Yankees need right now). Adames has lost range in recent years, but he has previous experience at 3B, and has the skillset to be excellent there. There's a lot of swing-and-miss here and he's likely a very good hitter as opposed to an All-Star caliber hitter, but he also is supposedly among the best clubhouse guys in the sport, another feature this team needs if they lose Soto.

2. Sign your favorite of Max Fried or Corbin Burnes. Given the likely expenditures, I much prefer Max Fried, as I think his skillset will age significantly better. Most places publicly predicted a $25ish million AAV, but pitching seems more expensive than expected this offseason, so I think we're looking at closer to $30 million AAV.

3. Trade for Lamonte Wade Jr. to play 1B. The Yankees are losing a significant table-setter at the top of the lineup, and they need to replace Soto's ability to get on-base at a significant clip. Wade fills that need brilliantly and he won't be terribly expensive, so he fits in with the plan. Wade needs a platoon partner at 1B, but that shouldn't be terribly difficult to come up with either with someone currently in the fold or a bargain grab.

4. Trade Jose Trevino and Marcus Stroman. Look at the deal Kyle Higashioka just got. Good backup catchers who can moonlight as starters have more value than typical given the dearth of good catching around baseball. Jose Trevino has trade value, and I would bet that he could bring back a low-cost reliever with talent. Marcus Stroman is in a similar boat; starting pitching is expensive this offseason, and Stroman is a good bet to throw 160 innings of average-ish ball. Lots of teams need that, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Yankees could bring in bench and relief help that way while shedding even more salary.

5. Sign Michael Conforto. Conforto very quietly had a really good offensive campaign out in San Francisco last season. His power is back after labrum surgery had sapped some pop, and his profile is a great match for Yankee Stadium. Conforto is another glue guy whose performance is on the up-and-up, and he shouldn't be expensive.

That's how I'd proceed this offseason.

Michael B. asks: I've seen a lot of people who seem to like the idea of acquiring a bunch of guys this offseason versus signing Soto and maybe one or two other guys. What do you think looks better on paper?

This is an easy one for me. The idea I mapped out in the previous question is a nice team on paper, but it doesn't have the high-end projection that a team that boasts Soto and Judge in the middle of the order can. For the people that like the idea of spreading the wealth if the Yankees lose Soto, I would like to remind you about the last time the team did that. A decade ago now, the Yankees lost out on Robinson Cano, and instead spread the money around to Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran, and Jacoby Ellsbury. How did that work out?!?!?

This situation isn't quite analogous, but it's close. I think the Yankees can still build a competitive team without Juan Soto, but they could be better with Soto than without him.

Alan B. asks: Andy: Who do you think the Yankees will be drafted in the Major League portion of the Rule 5 Draft, and who do you think is going to stick with the team that drafts him?

Here are the only potential players I see as options to be picked by a big league club:

• 1B TJ Rumfield

• SS Alexander Vargas

• SP Zach Messinger

• RP Sean Boyle

• RP Alex Mauricio

• RP Ryan Anderson

Houston, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati have awful 1B situations, so I could see one of them taking a flier on Rumfield, but I don't expect him to stick. Vargas is such a slick fielder that maybe someone carries him as a utility infielder, but I find that very doubtful. Messinger doesn't wow anyone with stuff, but as a pitchability back-end starter, maybe someone will take a look in Spring Training. The other three are relivers with qualities that teams like.

The only guy who I think could stick for any length of time is Alex Mauricio if his slider plays up. The Yanks should be pretty safe in the Rule 5 this year.