SSTN Mailbag: Peraza, Dominguez, Yankee Top-30, And New Starter Rules!

For the last month, I have had an incredibly self-serving desire that has very little to do with how the Yankees are performing. Last week, my daughter turned 2 (time flies just a bit too fast sometimes). We really don't allow her much screen time, which is fine since she's much happier playing outside and reading anyway, but one of the few exceptions to that rule is Yankee games. The TV can be on the background, and my daughter won't care; when the Yankees are on, she's hooked. Might it be because she's been learning the ABCs with a baseball/Yankee book since she was 6 months old? Perhaps, but the point remains: the girl is a Yankee fan.

Even more than the Yankees, she is mesmerized by Aaron Judge (though she really likes Ben Rice and Gerrit Cole too). Some of the first words she was able to put together were: "Aaron Judge, home run!" Awesome, right?!? Unfortunately, almost all of Judge's home runs since the beginning of the season have occurred either when she's napping or being put to bed at night. All I wanted for this kid's birthday was for her to see Aaron Judge hit a home run. I almost made this plea in last week's Mailbag, but I know all too well how the Baseball Gods treat such a request (hint: the same way they treated my requests to just get one more good pop out of my four-seamer with an achy shoulder). Thus, I waited.

On Sunday (a very short time following her birthday), I got my wish. I got my daughter up from her nap, and on our way to go outside, we stopped to watch Aaron Judge bat. Lo and behold, we all heard the crack of Judge's bat, and we knew it was a homer. The look of excitement on her face when she realized that Judge homered was priceless. If that was good, it was even funnier to realize that everyone in my house was almost more excited that Judge homered AND my daughter saw it than my daughter was to see it. For the record, she rounded the bases faster than Judge, too.

I got what I wanted and I didn't have to beg the Baseball Gods for it to happen. That's a win in my book.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about Peraza's future, Dominguez's recent performance, MLB Pipeline's Top-30 Yankee Prospects, and MLB's proposed rules for starting pitchers! Let's get at it:

Fuster asks: Peraza is now back to pulling the ball in the air with greater frequency

if your crystal ball was close to hand, what would it tell you to predict for Peraza's future?

It took me a week to dust off the crystal, but I'm ready now. I am really torn regarding Peraza's future. Almost all value projection for Peraza is based off of his ability to be a stellar defender up the middle, as I really don't think his bat profiles elsewhere as a starter. Last season, I thought Peraza looked like a sure plus-plus defender at SS, which is obviously the best-case scenario. Unfortunately, I have real concerns anytime a player suffers an injury to their throwing shoulder. Regardless of what has been reported, once you hurt your shoulder, it is never the same, and it requires constant maintenance, particularly for someone who throws the ball everyday.

I will be very curious to see how much pop Peraza has on his throws, to the extent we get to see him in the Bronx this year. Peraza had an easy plus-arm the last time we saw him - is that still the case? If so, I think he is a potential starter at SS for someone. If his arm isn't all the way back, I think it pushes him to 2B/3B, with 2B being preferable. Obviously, the Yankees have an opening on that side of the infield next season. As a defensively-focused option, I think Peraza might well be a really good fit there.

I have never been as high on Peraza's bat, and my projection there hasn't changed, though it's a bit better now that he's pulling the ball again. I think Peraza will always get beat by good breaking balls low, though he can do damage to fastballs up and breaking balls that miss. Like all guys coming from AAA, he needs more exposure to good off-speed pitches to finish his development. I think he can be a low-OBP, solid ISO bat at 2B if he stays with the Yankees, though it might take him half a season of struggles to get there, given the dearth of experienced pitching down at AAA across the league.

At maturity, I could see Peraza hit something like .235/.315/.410, maybe a bit more in his best seasons. That's far from world-beating offensive performance, but with his plus defensive profile, that's a productive big leaguer. Given the dearth of 2B and 3B options this off-season, it might be best for the Yankees to open next season with Jazz Chisholm at 3B (given an off-season of work there, I think he's shown that he'll be quite good defensively there), and a competition between Durbin, Peraza, and Cabrera at 2B.

Brian asks: What is your take on Dominguez's struggles since he came back at AAA? Did he come back too fast, or is he just young and in need of more development?

Sure, all young players are prone to streaks, and he certainly did come back pretty early from the oblique injury. However, Dominguez is hitting for much louder contact in recent days, even if they are not turning into hits yet. However, I see something else that's really interesting when I dig deeper:

This a heatmap of pitches thrown to Dominguez when he bats left-handed since he returned from injury. Pitchers have largely pitched away from Dominguez, often off the plate outside. Much like what happened to Dominguez at AA last season, he's jumping a bit too much at pitches he should be watching, as opposed to letting the game come to him and hitting it where it's pitched. This is an important lesson for a prospect like Dominguez, whose hit tool is the key to unlocking all of his potential at the plate. Dominguez is certainly better than the raw numbers show, particularly given the context of how he is being pitched, but there is still value in keeping Dominguez at AAA to learn how to handle these situations.

I am not worried at all about Dominguez, and were he needed right now at MLB, I believe he could help, as pitchers would likely try to attack the rookie with far greater frequency than pitchers at AAA. That said, I think it's fine for Dominguez to fine tune his swing and get some more development when pitchers try to pitch around him.

Alan B. asks: How surprised are you at the new rankings of the prospects that came out earlier this week? Your biggest surprises? Mine are that 5 just-drafted pitchers, who don't debut until next year, and each have major question marks are all ranked higher than Trysten Vreiling, who, in my opinion they rushed him up to AA..

I generally take all rankings with a grain of salt, because everyone has their own standards for evaluation and grades accordingly. Frankly, my views align least with MLB Pipeline, generally speaking, so I very rarely take their rankings for face value, though some of the scouting insights are useful. With that understanding out of the way, I am rarely terribly surprised that their rankings don't match mine.

Like you, I am surprised that they pushed Vrieling so far down their rankings. Since July 4th, he's been excellent down at AA, mixing his pitches more effectively with good progress mechanically. In that time, he's produced a 3.22 ERA with hitters producing just a .582 OPS against him, though his strikeout rate is a bit lower than I would have expected. That said, his projection has always been that of a solid back-end starter, and most outlets prefer louder tools with bigger upside than surer bets with lower ceilings (just ask JP Sears how he was ranked as a minor leaguer).

My bigger surprise was on the position player side. I was shocked to see Pereira in the top-10 while Caleb Durbin didn't make the list at all. I think those are pretty significant oversights that weren't well explained in their write-ups.

As for the new guys on the list, I actually like the Yankees' recent pitching-heavy draft quite a bit. Hess has significant upside, with great extension that makes his fastball play like it's coming in at 100 MPH. If he can find something to work off of the curve and fastball (maybe separating his short slider into a cutter and a big, sweeping slider? Turning his change-up into a splitter?), I think he can be a monster starter even without average control, much like Luis Gil.

Cunningham pitched against the best competition in Division 1 Baseball and was fantastic in the Cape Cod League, something I weight very heavily. The guy is proven, and his stuff and pitchability are excellent. He's another guy that with some tweaks to his pitch mix, something that the Yankees are proven to be good at doing, has a lot of upside that Vrieling (for example) doesn't have. Cunningham is another guy I could see splitting his current slider into a short slider or cutter and a bigger shape slider with good effect.

Alan B. also asks: Andy: What do you think of the proposal of making the starters going 6 innings? I'm more partial to limiting pitching staffs to 11 guys, putting back a real bench, letting guys be benched if they deserve it, plus PCs would have to teach guys how to pitch, and get rid of the one inning relievers.

I was ready to hate MLB's proposal, but after some thought, I'm not sure I do. From an aesthetic perspective, I understand the point some fans make that baseball is losing something as starting pitching is becoming less important than bullpens. As a kid, I loved it when Mike Mussina would match up with Pedro Martinez, or even a few years ago when Chris Sale and Luis Severino would go toe-to-toe. It was must-watch baseball!

High velocity and pitch design are definitely here to stay regardless of what MLB does, but I think that doing something to either create pitch/inning minimums or create new roster restrictions will necessarily make the art of pitching more prominent again. Pitchers would have to learn how to mix speeds and move the ball around more in order to last 6-7 innings. There would also need to be more relievers who had more than one trick.

I think I'm with you, Alan; I would start by making more roster restrictions on the number of pitchers on a staff. While this couldn't be done immediately, I would phase it in over the next couple of years, and see if that gives the desired result before we change something more drastic.