I have to apologize in advanced - this is going to be a slightly shorter Mailbag than usual. It's been an incredibly long week for me. I left home for Europe shortly following the posting of last week's Mailbag posting, and I've been working nonstop since. In fact, writing this Mailbag 6 hours before I need to get to an airport to get home counts as leisure.
That said, I am certainly not looking for sympathy - far from it. I have a job that occasionally gives me the opportunity to travel to interesting places and meet good, fascinating people. For all of the hard work that comes with traveling abroad for work, I wouldn't trade the opportunities my job has provided. I am very thankful for the experiences I've had overseas, particularly as someone who never really imagined traveling internationally over a decade ago. Now, for as routine as it has become in my life, I try not to take this travel for granted, but I'll admit that I'm pretty good and tired this time around.
Being thousands of miles from home also really makes me miss baseball. I found out that Roki Sasaki had signed with the Dodgers as I landed in Italy on Saturday morning (the middle of the night for those of you reading in the US). Once I finished shaking my head about the Dodgers snagging yet another star, I suddenly felt oddly disconnected, knowing that there was no one in my immediate vicinity who would care about major or minor baseball news. Whenever I travel abroad this time of year, I miss baseball more, and this time wasn't any different.
We'll get back to normal next week. As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about the next potential NPB star to crossover to MLB, the Dodgers, CC Sabathia's HOF election and its potential meaning for Andy Pettitte, and Oswald Peraza's chances of remaining a Yankee! Let's get at it:
Michael G. asks: I've seen some articles on Munetaka Murakami and his arrival next season. Everything seems to consider him a 1b but his baseball reference shows he's mostly played 3b. So could he be the real answer long term at 3b or is he that bad there that he needs to move to 1b?
My concerns about Murakami extend far beyond his lack of defensive fit, but we can start there. The really short answer is no, there is almost no shot that Murakami will play any 3B in MLB, nor is he capable of playing the position any longer. I can only imagine that the Swallows continue to play him at 3B out of respect for his fame and stature in the league, because beyond an adequate arm, nothing about his reactions, range, hands, or footwork indicate an ability to play the position. In fact, his range and hands are poor enough that I really wonder if he can transition effectively to 1B; we are talking about a player that might be a DH-only by 27 or 28 years old.
That profile puts a ton of pressure on his bat, which is suddenly in question. Murakami has light-tower power, and he can really tattoo misses in the bottom half of the zone against fastballs, breaking balls, and off-speed pitches, but his swing decisions and hit tool have become real issues over the last two seasons. Murakami has gotten heavier and appears to be hunting for 5-run homers, and as a result, his strikeout rate has exploded relative to the rest of the league since his otherworldly performance as a 23-year old. Mechanically, I think he'll need to cheat to reach velocity above the belt, and I'm not convinced he'll make the adjustments needed to succeed against better pitchers.
All of that said, Murakami's one carrying tool is truly elite, he bats left-handed, and I could be wrong about a transition to 1B, in which case he'd still be a nice fit for the Yankees. I hope Murakami will come into this season in better shape with some mechanical refinement at the plate; his hit tool fell of more than I expected, and if he can get back to an average-ish or even slightly lower hit tool, he'll be an impact bat for the Dodgers...I mean MLB.
Brian S. asks: What do you think MLB needs to do about the Dodgers?
Nothing? Frankly, I give the Dodgers a ton of credit: they've built an organization that scouts well, utilizes statistics and biomechanical assessment as well as anyone, develops young players, and spends their money to win championships. To me, that sounds a lot like how a certain team that wears pinstripes used to operate.
I'm even OK with the deferred contracts; players and owners collectively bargained and intentionally created the system that allows the Dodgers to offer significant chunks of deferred money and players to take it. When owners and players find a way to agree, I wouldn't stand in the way. What the Dodgers are doing is legal, and other teams, the Yankees included, are welcome to offer contracts in the same fashion.
I was upset that Sasaki signed with the Dodgers, mostly because it was certainly a charade. Teams spent time and resources to make their pitches to Sasaki and certainly exposed proprietary statistics and mechanical assessments in an effort to fix Sasaki's drop in velocity, so I don't like the methods used by Sasaki or his agent throughout the process. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if the Dodgers and Sasaki had a verbal agreement months ago, so that bothers me, but without proof, we can't say the Dodgers did anything wrong.
I wish all teams tried as hard to win as the Dodgers, Yankees included.
Steve asks: CC and Pettitte have very similar career numbers, but Pettitte hasn't gotten the call from the HOF yet. Now that CC is in, is Pettitte next?
My gut says no. If you look at the back of their baseball cards in totals, Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia look similar, but I don't think that's right. CC certainly had a better peak than Pettitte, as he was considered the best, or one of the 3 best pitchers in the league. From 2006-2011, CC had a 140 ERA+ and was stingy in allowing hits and walks. His peak was just better, as much as I loved Pettitte. Their late career inventions were very similar and the totals are similar, but that's where the similarities end.
DaveyJones38 asks: What does your gut say about Oswald Peraza and his place on the team this year? Does he make the roster or will they drop him or trade him? He might be the 3b right now!
My gut tells me that Peraza's fate will be similar to Estevan Florial's a number of years ago. I think the Yanks will ultimately find a small trade for him at the end of Spring Training rather than lose him on waivers when he doesn't make the 26-man roster. He's got a great glove, but I just don't think he'll hit enough to stick anywhere.
