SSTN Mailbag: Mid-Season Grades And A Difference Maker!

I didn’t watch any of the All-Star festivities this past week.  I’m not certain, but it may be a first for me.  I’m not even going to go on a rant about how MLB does/doesn’t handle the week; in fact, I would argue that MLB and the NHL probably have the best All-Star festivities of any other North American professional sport.  I just don’t think it’s for me.  The last time I intently watched a Home Run Derby was when Josh Hamilton sent moon balls up all night in the House That Ruth Built.  I have trouble getting excited for games that don’t mean anything, and I spend a lot more time hoping that the game’s best players don’t get hurt in events that are for exhibition.

The only event that I wish the league promoted more heavily is the Future’s Game.  I didn’t watch it this year either, because the talent pool was diluted pretty heavily by injury and late scratches, but I think it’s an opportunity for casual fans to see the game’s next stars prior to their arrival.  It’s also fun for diehards like myself to see how tools translate in a real game situation, as we can’t see every prospect easily (though I find ways to watch a fair few).  I think MLB has an opportunity with that game that they can exercise more fully.

Anyway, the All-Star break is over this evening and the Yanks have just 11 days until the Trade Deadline.  The Trade Deadline has become a lot tighter with expanded playoffs, as too many teams exist in a strange grey area, so there are fewer sellers.  Still, this is going to be a critical time for both the games on the field and the work that happens in the front office.  If the Yanks hope to win the World Series this year, the next 11 days are going to be of crucial importance.

David R. asks: The Yankees finished the first half with a good record, but also one of the worst stretches of baseball I’ve ever seen. I haven’t seen you grade the team on its performance, so how would you grade the players, staff, etc?

I’m going to do my grades by section (Infield, Outfield, Bench, Starting Pitchers, Bullpen, Coaching Staff, Management).  Here they are:

Infield: D+ (But trending slightly up)

It’s been a rough year on the infield, and this has been the team’s greatest weakness.  Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu were again counted on to be major contributors, and again this hindered the Yankees’ ability to sustain consistent offense.  Rizzo was one of the worst regulars in the big leagues prior to landing on the IL with a broken arm while DJ has been one of the worst regulars in baseball since his return.  The Yankees will certainly look for a corner infielder at the Trade Deadline.

Up-the-middle, Gleyber Torres has fallen flat on his face in his walk year while playing poor defense at 2B with his fair share of blunders on the basepaths as well.  Since his benching in late-June however, Torres is hitting .326 with an .819 OPS.  His approach at the plate is better, and he’s making gobs of contact.  His true talent level is closer to what we saw last season, so if he gets back to being that guy (or the guy we see right now), the Yankees are well-off at 2B.

Anthony Volpe’s experiment to totally revamp the way he hits has been a failure, but he had some early moments offensively and his defense has been stellar (save for his recent miscue).  He’s a net-positive, but I’m hoping for more.  Count me among the group that hopes we see some mechanical tweaks at the plate coming out of the break.

Thank goodness for Ben Rice.  He reminds me of Greg Bird before the shoulder injury at the plate, and I expect him to bring left-handed pop, patience, improving defense, and a professional demeanor for the rest of the season.  He is a key cog in the Yankee offense now, and I think he’s capable.  Rizzo shouldn’t get his job back when he’s healthy.

The catching tandem has been well above-average compared to the rest of the league, which tells you how much catchers struggle league wide.  Trevino now is hurt and will be out for some time.  Wells has been a revelation defensively relative to his modest expectations, and while the hits didn’t fall at all until June, the batted ball data gave me confidence that a hot streak was around the corner.  That hot streak is here, and I fully expect Wells to be a plus catcher for the remainder of the year.

The infield gets a barely passing score for the first half, but with an addition and continued rebound, it wouldn’t shock me to see the infield get a full-season score in the “B” range.

Outfield: A-

It’s hard to be anything other than effusive with praise when 2/3 of the outfield is Judge and Soto.  Judge has been an average defensive CF, which is remarkable for a player at his age with his size.  Judge has been the best hitter in the sport even with his slow April.  In short: he’s amazing.  Soto hits like the modern-day Ted Williams, and he’s been passable defensively in RF.  They are the perfect 1-2 punch.

Alex Verdugo started hot, and has been bad for quite some time.  I said before the season that he should be a platoon-only LF…and he’s been even worse against LHP than I expected.  They need a platoon partner for Verdugo, fast.

Bench: B-

This might seem like a surprisingly high score, but I also think it’s fair when you really think about it.  Oswaldo Cabrera is an excellent insurance policy.  His hitting is exposed with too much playing time, but in a scenario where the team could pick his spots, he’d be fine.  His defensive versatility is a huge asset.

Jahmai Jones has been shockingly effective when called upon.  He offers little defensive versatility, otherwise he’d likely be getting the bulk of playing time at 3B at this point.  There are underlying numbers that suggest his offensive performance might not be a fluke despite the small sample size.

Trent Grisham is divisive, and his low batting average and recent defensive miscue angered a lot of fans.  However, it’s hard to argue with the performance he’s delivered since getting regular playing time.  Since the start of June, Grisham has hit .270/.349/.527 with good defense while playing every day.  Few teams get performance like that out of 4th outfielders.  In fact, when Stanton returns, Grisham should be playing over Verdugo.

The bench has been good.  Grisham brings the grade up by a fair bit, but there is defensive versatility, platoon matchup guys, and some offense on the bench.  I wish there was one more bench option, but this has been a good group.

Starting Pitching: B

This grade would have been much higher at the end of May, when the Yankee rotation was the best in the sport without Gerrit Cole.  Rodon and Stroman have struggled, Gil had a 3-start stretch where he came back to Earth, Nestor can’t pitch on the road for whatever reason, and Cole didn’t start to look more like the defending CY Young winner until recently.

I expect Cole, Gil, and Nestor to be good-great starters for the rest of the year.  Stroman is living on a fine line with diminished stuff, and I really have no idea what to make of Rodon. This rotation will be thrilled to get Clarke Schmidt back in August.  The depth behind these guys is thin, so the team needs to hope this group stays healthy.  The overall numbers in the first half were still very good, but the cracks are showing, and they need Cole and Gil to dominate, which is a lot to ask.

Bullpen: D

Holmes, Weaver, Tonkin, and Hill all earned jobs in the regular bullpen during the first half, though Holmes needs to right the ship to hold on to the Closer’s spot.  Every other job is up for grabs.  I think the Yankees need 2 bullpen arms at the Trade Deadline, because their off-season work to reshape the bullpen was a failure.  Caleb Ferguson and Victor Gonzalez have been awful, and Gonzalez is out of the organization; Nick Burdi, who I love, is hurt (again, and predictably so); Tommy Kahnle is diminished; Loaisiga is out for the year, again; and other arms the Yankees liked are either hurt or failed miserably and are out of the organization.

This group has hurt the team more than everyone but whoever is at 3B.

Coaching: C

They’re average; they don’t pull the Yankees up, nor do they truly drag them down.  They’re just there.  After many years, I think it’s clear that the Yankees need a manager other than Aaron Boone to ignite them when they’re not going well.  I just don’t think he or his staff consistently gets the best performance out of these guys.  We have years of data to prove it.  No changes will happen this season, but I think changes could help get the Yanks over the hump.

Management: B-

This will surprise many.  Cashman had a lot of work to overhaul the roster this off-season, and within the budget he was given, I think he should get a ton of credit.  The Yankees got a steal in the deal for Soto, and they really haven’t missed any of those pieces, besides Drew Thorpe, but you have to give to get.  The bullpen is a problem, but this is the first time in a decade that Cashman and crew haven’t built a good bullpen, and arms will be available in the next two weeks to finish the job.

The issue I have is with the team’s negligence at the infield corners and with Steinbrenner’s continued refusal to really push his chips to the middle of the table.  Those two issues drop my grade by a fair amount.

Overall, the Yankees had a really good first half, with an ending that really caused some of these grades to take a hit.  Still, it’s a playoff team as currently constructed, but it needs help to be a true contender.

Alan B. asks: Why is everyone so ready to throw Spencer Jones in any deal that could potentially help the 2024 Yankees? I could understand if the trade target was a real difference maker, but there isn't a real difference maker out there to be had. Plus, it's not just Jones, every deal has other highly ranked prospects going with him. To me this makes no sense. Andy, please tell me who you think out there is a DIFFERENCE MAKER to be had?

The Yankees, for numerous reasons, need to be all-in this year.  They might not have Judge AND Soto next year, and Cole/Judge aren’t getting any younger.  This is the year to make a statement.  Spencer Jones’ raw tools are impressive, but he doesn’t have the same floor as Dominguez or some of the other best prospects in baseball.  In fact, there is a real division with in the industry on opinions about Jones’ future value.  For the teams that view Jones in a favorable light, they might be willing to part with real ballplayers to help the Yankees this season.  Jones is running a strikeout rate in the mid-30s with Somerset, even during his recent turnaround; he’s got a long way to go before he’s a big league caliber bat.

Are there real difference makers available?  That depends on your definition.  There are guys out there who I think would make a huge difference as the Yankees hunt for a championship, but who wouldn’t make media headlines.  The Yankees need a 3B, 2 bullpen arms, pitching depth, or offense more generally.  I’ve listed multiple guys in the last month who would make a huge impact, but might thin out the minors a bit more.

Would I deal Jones and others for Garrett Crotchet, for instance?  Yup, I would.  Chisholm?  Maybe if the Yanks also landed the bullpen arms.  I think impact players are out there.