SSTN Mailbag: Challenge Rule, AL East, And Underrated Storylines!

A lot has happened since we last met for the Mailbag! I was sitting on a train when the news broke that the Yankees were removing their famous (infamous?) facial hair policy. Even if the Yankees don't retain Devin Williams beyond this season, his legacy is set, which is really saying something for a guy that's been around for less than a minute.

The reality is that it's been well past time for this policy to be amended, if not abolished. Reading the subtext of comments made by members of the organization, including Brian Cashman, it is clear that the front office has gently pushed Hal Steinbrenner to change the policy for some time. Their point is well-taken: how ridiculous is it for the Yankees to potentially limit the field of players available to them with an antiquated rule? I am a little sympathetic to Aaron Judge's points regarding tradition and discipline...if not for the fact that the Yankees have gone out of their way to toss tradition aside the last few years, and more critically, play some of the most undisciplined baseball of any winning team in the league throughout the Aaron Boone era. The tradition may have once had some minimal merit (though I remain skeptical of that idea), but it simply doesn't hold up to scrutiny any longer.

Aside from that news, it's just nice to see players on the field playing baseball again! There are definitely some interesting things to glean from the first few Spring Training games...but we'll talk about that more in a minute.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about the ABS challenge rule, project the AL East standings, and talk about some under-the-radar storylines from early Yankee camp! Let's get at it:

David C. asks: With this new robot umpire, you receive 2 challenges.  The rule states that if you are correct, you keep your challenge.  Is this infinite or does it max out at 4 challenges?

Based on my understanding both in practice and in reading the rule, I believe that as long as the challenge is successful, you maintain your challenges infinitely. That might sound like a process that would be a terrible drag on the game if the challenge is used frequently with success, but the reality in the leagues in which it has been used is that the challenge system has not presented an issue with regards to the flow of the game.

I haven't been able to verify this statistic elsewhere, but some of the major media outlets have noted that just 51% of challenges are successful. Teams and players really seem to pick and choose when to use the challenge, so it hasn't been a problem. An ump would have to be horrifically bad to use the challenge enough to really change the game.

***As an aside, I watched an old Greg Maddux start the other day...umps really were significantly worse 30+ years ago. Both pitchers were able to use the right-handed batters box as the outer edge of the strike zone with impunity.***

Umpires are better than we give them credit for, though that isn't to say that the human eye isn't fallible, particularly given the velocity and stuff that pitchers in the modern era display. To me, the goal should be to keep the game-altering, egregious calls from making significant impacts, and the challenge system goes a long way towards helping that aspect. It still needs refinement, but I'm definitely in favor of the challenge system.

Mark S. asks: Can you give us an overview of what the AL East looks like this year? How do the Yankees stack up and who will be in it all summer?

It's interesting...we spend a lot of time complaining about how the Yankees didn't close enough holes this winter, but looking around the AL East, I think most of us would have a coronary event if we rooted for almost anyone else in the AL East. Baltimore's young core has officially arrived, and they have spent basically zero money to supplement that core; we know the story with the Rays - no money is spent, but their player development and on-field personnel management is so good, that they'll at least be competitive; the Jays can't get anyone to take their money and are likely to waste their young core; and the Red Sox have operated like a mid-market team for 7-ish years now, though they should be better than they have been.

While Baltimore's ownership group is seemingly wasting their young, cheap core, I do think they are the most well-rounded team in the AL East aside from the Yankees, on paper at least. There are bats up and down the lineup, and all project to be at least average. If Gunnar Henderson or Adley Rutschman decide to post a peak, MVP-style season, it's a tough lineup. If there are injuries in the lineup, I don't think the thin, weak pitching staff can hold down the fort. Baltimore needs to score a lot of runs in order to win games, because that pitching staff isn't very good.

The Jays might have the highest variance of potential outcomes of any team in the division; I could see a scenario where they win the AL East, or I could picture them finishing in the basement. The Jays have a lineup of guys who at their best can hit with anyone, but are also wildly inconsistent. They have a good front 4 in the starting rotation, but it gets thin fast thereafter. The bullpen has interesting pieces, but likely not enough to be a top-12 bullpen in the league.

I really didn't buy the Rays last season, and while I'm not sure I do this season, I think they'll be a competitive, low-80s win team. They can mix and match lineups to maximize value in a way that no other team is capable, including the Dodgers, but the reality is that the roster is just thin.

The Red Sox are solid, but they have some odd fits around the diamond and a host of question marks after the middle of the batting order. Some of that will likely resolve itself, but I just don't see a lineup that's much better than middle-of-the-pack. Where this team is significantly improved is on the mound. This is a really solid rotation with a reasonably deep bullpen. The Yankees have a better pitching staff, but the Red Sox aren't far off. Assuming the pitching staff stays healthy (always a big if), the Red Sox have a reasonably high floor this season.

Even with thin depth and a 3B solution most are unhappy about, the Yankees are pretty clearly the best team in the AL East, on paper. If I were to project the standings, here's where I'd go:

1. Yankees

2. Red Sox

3. Orioles

4. Rays

5. Jays

The Jays have too many variables; I think they'll be in sell-mode by the beginning of July. The Sox have the highest floor, and I think they'll be neck-and-neck with Baltimore for 2nd place. The Rays will win 82-ish games and be fine. The AL East is the best division in the AL, and it's not close, but the Yanks are the best of the bunch.

Michael B. asks: Besides 3B and Giancarlo Stanton, what are some under the radar storylines you're watching in camp?

I'll bullet-point them out:

• Anthony Volpe hit the hardest ball he's ever hit in a Major League game the other day (110+ MPH). Yes, he's swinging harder, which he's discussed a bit in interviews, but I was far more interested in his mechanics. As all of you know, I've followed Volpe's mechanics extensively. I was hugely skeptical about the direction his mechanics were heading last Spring Training, and my concern proved to be well-founded. Watching video of the homer, Volpe's swing load looks awfully similar to what I think it should look like right now. Let's see if it sticks.

• Carlos Carrasco, fighting for a roster spot, is throwing harder than he has in recent seasons. Carrasco can really pitch and is great in the clubhouse. With some velocity bounce-back, he might be a really important depth piece.

• I think Ben Rice and JC Escarra are the two best bets to be the backup catcher. Escarra got to catch Cole during bullpen sessions, and Rice is getting every chance to prove he can both catch and bring pop at the plate. I even see a scenario where both make the roster to begin the season. Both are players to watch.

• I have said for years that I thought Will Warren was a reliever, with knockout stuff, but a poor delivery. His 4 strikeout start the other day had people buzzing, but I was interested for a different reason: I haven't seen him repeat his delivery that well ever. If he can do that, Warren is a really good starter, particularly now that he's bringing back his curveball to help with his struggles against lefties, a pitch I always really liked as he came up through the minors.

• The defense. It's already clear how much better the Yankee defense is. Even with Dominguez's growing pains in left, everyone seems more alert in the field. Chisholm is a huge upgrade over Torres at 2B, and Bellinger looks great in CF.

• I think Austin Wells is going to be an All-Star this year. He looks locked in and healthy early in camp.

• From a team that didn't have a lefty reliever a month ago, the Yankees appear to now have at least two really good options there. Tyler Matzek looks a lot closer to the guy he used to be now that he's further out from TJS.

• Hot take: the Yankees are giving Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera every chance to beat out DJ LeMahieu for the 3B job. I think one or both of them grab it.