SSTN Mailbag: Cashman, Rotation Predictions, And DH!

It's amazing the difference that two weeks can make. Two weeks ago, I would have told you that most of the fanbase was reasonably upbeat, if not foaming at the mouth with excitement. Today? I think Yankee fans are generally somber, while many more still are nearly apoplectic. Losing 40% of the projected starting rotation for at least the bulk of the season will do that to a fanbase. As many have noted, the Yankees have also (necessarily, I might add) traded away a significant amount of upper level pitching depth in recent years, adding to the anxiety most feel about the team this year.

I'm not going to sit here and tell anyone that they're wrong for feeling a particular way about the team, and I'm far from a rah-rah guy; for proof, my text to people when the news about Cole broke was, "Why can't we have nice things?!?" However, I would also caution that it's March 14th, not August 14th. The Yankees have won a lot of games with rotations worse than what the Yankees are likely to run with when the season starts. Anyone remember what the rotation looked like in 2005 before the Yankees dug up Shawn Chacon and Aaron Small. In fact, I think that the 2005 Yankees could be a perfect proxy for this year's team. 2005 was not a good team on paper; the Yankees were well below average at multiple positions on offense, with just 4 or 5 good bats, they had an awful bullpen behind Mo, and the rotation was terrible until Chacon and Small rolled into town. How did the regular season go, you ask? Oh, the Yanks won 95 games and the AL East crown. In today's game, with expanded playoffs, everyone has a real shot to get hot in October. The rest of the AL is flawed too; don't count the Yanks out just yet.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll decide how much blame we should assign to Brian Cashman, predict the performance of the starting rotation, and discuss the hole at DH left by Giancarlo Stanton. Let's get at it:

Matt B. asks: How much blame should we assign Cashman for the mess the Yankees are in right now? He is treated like he's untouchable by ownership, but he hasn't won a championship since 2009 and it constantly seems like we're robbing Peter to pay Paul with our roster decisions. Shouldn't he shoulder the blame here?

Brian Cashman is the person directly and ultimately responsible for managing roster construction, organizational philosophy, and prospect building. Yes, I think it's fair to assign Brian Cashman some blame for the team's lack of depth across the roster, and for building a roster that depended on some aging veterans whose injury history shows that they needed solid plan B's. However, Cashman is not the only one to blame here.

Give Cashman truth serum, and I'm sure that he's miffed that the roster budget after a trip to the World Series (a year in which the Yankees likely brought in hundreds of millions of dollars in extra revenue with minimal additional overhead) has decreased from last season. Hal Steinbrenner is very clearly and publicly making a statement about the rise in player salaries, and it's also clearly coordinated with Rob Manfred's stated effort to push for a salary cap in the next CBA. I can guarantee that Cashman would have liked to have another $15-20 million to play with in this year's budget to get a 3B and more depth. That wouldn't be an aspirational request either; that's what Cashman had for a budget the previous year. Hal deserves some blame here.

And to those of you who say that $300 million should be more than enough to build a winning team: you would be right, except for the fact that every couple of years, the Yankees pay a large sum of money for a free agent, which I'm sure Steinbrenner insists on doing in order to keep up appearances. On that score also, Cashman is stuck between a rock and a hard place; he has to rack up some large, long-term contracts, all of which will eventually end badly on the backside (as all long-term contracts do, generally).

One more factor, one which I mention on SSTN with great frequency: pitcher is a Greek word for "breaks frequently, and often irreparably." The Yankees had generally great luck with pitcher injuries last year; now the law of averages is coming for them, but it was also predictable. On the injury front, I feel for Cashman, but it was also predictable. Cole was hurt in 2024, and I noted numerous times that based on his arm slot early in starts, I didn't think he was 100%. All of us around here noted that Luis Gil was making a huge leap in not just innings, but high intensity pitches, not a plus for someone with such an injury rap sheet. Injuries are unfair to roster builders, but some are also predictable, to some extent.

The rumor is that the Yankees turned down a deal that would have sent Gil to the Astros for Kyle Tucker. I said it at the time, and I'll reiterate it now, that the Yankees would regret that non-move. With Tucker in the fold, the Yankees probably could have looked elsewhere for help on the pitching front, or acquired a real third baseman, as surely the team could have held off on signing one of Bellinger or Goldy. That's on Cashman.

There are other elements to blame for the Yankees' current predicament, but it is fair to assign some blame to Brian Cashman.

David R. asks: You've talked a lot about the mechanics of building a roster and probabilities for certain players, but could you give your prediction for how the rotation will perform without Cole and Gil?

I am not nearly as doom and gloom as the rest of the Yankee fanbase. Over the last 4 seasons, Max Fried has been better than Cole, arguably. Check out the high-level numbers from 2021 on:

Fried: 2.87 ERA, 147 ERA+, 16.3 bWAR

Cole: 3.15 ERA, 133 ERA+, 17.7 bWAR

That's incredibly close! Cole is more of a workhorse in his healthy seasons, but on a per-inning basis, Fried is actually the better pitcher. Fried limits baserunners, pitches to soft contact, and can rear back and get strikeouts when needed. While he struggled with health early in his career, he has been mostly healthy since the Covid-shortened 2020 season.

Rodon is a solid starter who can occasionally flash greatness. I still think there is one more prime season left in Rodon's tank, and now would be as good a time as any to bring it out. Yankee fans don't like the contract, but he's a better pitcher than he's given credit for.

Schmidt is really good when he pitches; I'm not convinced he can hold up, and I never have been. Realistically though, the Yankees need him to make it to June, when the trade market will presumably begin to open up.

On the backside of the rotation, I really think Will Warren has made a leap forward. Long-term, I still think he's more of a 4 starter, but I think he can be a positive piece of the rotation this year.

As for Marcus Stroman, it is true that he has multiple years of diminishing returns, however, there's an important part of his profile many people are ignoring: he almost always pitches well in the first half of the season before he wears down. That includes last season. To put it more specifically, he wasn't very good in 2023 or 2024, right? Stroman had a 2.94 ERA in the 1st half in 2023, and a 3.51 ERA in the 1st half in 2024. That's a productive rotation member, and I'd bet he can approach league average for 3 months this year too.

I don't see a disaster; I think the rotation will be average through the end of June, with one of the league's best bullpens and a good, above-average offense. That's a winning combination until the Yanks can find some reinforcements at the trade deadline.

Mark S.: How would you handle the DH slot? I was very surprised the Yanks sent down Pereira...

I do understand why the Yanks sent Pereira down. He's clearly working hard, but he's still whiffing like crazy (not strikeouts necessarily, but swinging through hittable pitches in the strike zone). Going to AAA to clean that up makes sense.

If it were up to me, I'd give the at-bats to Ben Rice against right-handed pitching, then rotate position players in and out of the spot against good left-handed pitching. I think Rice is ready to be a productive big leaguer.