I'm going to sound like a broken record here, but this is a very strange off-season. We had a free agent pool stocked with talent, including a generational hitter; a pitcher with an electric arm coming over from Japan who would cost almost nothing due to his age and relative inexperience; and a wealth of solid bullpen and roster filler who can help teams. Yet, after a flurry of activity early, there remains a significant number of useful players available on the free agent market. Even stranger still, close to half of the consensus top-50 players available on the international prospect market remain available multiple days into the January signing period, which is basically unheard of. Both of these phenomena have explanations, and they don't say anything good about the modern game and its rules.
We'll start with the international prospect pool. Half of the league is in a holding pattern waiting for Sasaki to choose a destination. No, not because half the league thinks they have a shot; instead, teams looking both to acquire Sasaki or cash in on additional international prospects that may or may not have been tied to Sasaki's acquiring team are desperately trying to acquire extra bonus pool money. This has led to a strange holding pattern. I very much wonder if the Yankees will find a way to capitalize on this situation, as the reports are strong that they already have handshake agreements with multiple prospects on the international market who have not signed yet.
As for the free agent market, the pathetic truth is that most teams are not willing to pay close to market value to help their teams; they would prefer to wait for prices to drop, or rely on cheaper talent internally, whether or not its the better baseball play. I would lump the Yankees into this group, sadly. There are mid-level free agents who could clearly help this ball club who almost certainly available for a relative bargain. Unfortunately, the only rumor we've heard as Yankee fans in recent days are about shedding Stroman's contract. Is Stroman an overpay? To some extent, yes, though given the price of average starting pitching on the free agent market at the moment, Stroman is a useful guy to have around. No, instead the Yankees are nickel and diming out of adherence to taxes, which represent pennies on the dollar relative to last season's revenue windfall from their deep playoff run.
The Yankees aren't unique in that sense; every team in baseball is operating in this fashion to some extent. As a fan, it's no less frustrating, though, and it doesn't say anything good about teams' desire to put winning teams on the field.
As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll talk about Brendan Donovan, evaluate a trade proposal, and walk through the Yankees' current needs. Let's get at it:
Michael G. asks: What'd a trade for Brendan Donovan cost?
Schmidt plus?
Gill plus?
Would it be worth it?
I am really conflicted about how I feel about Brendan Donovan, and frankly, I think the Cardinals are too. Donovan is really easy to root for as a player; he plays hard all the time, does a lot of little things well, and is extremely versatile. His game is also aesthetically pleasing; he doesn't swing and miss hardly at all, he takes some walks, and he makes plenty of contact, and some of it is hard contact.
Does he fit the Yankees? I think so, though I'm not sure it's a perfect fit. Donovan makes plenty of contact and runs solid OBP's, but I'm not sure he's an ideal lead-off hitter, which would be great for a Yankee team that sure could use one. Donovan doesn't walk a ton, so if his ability to make contact falls off, he is certainly not a good lead-off option. He also is a very middling baserunner both in his ability to take extra bases and in raw speed, though he won't hurt there. That said, Donovan hits the ball to all fields with enough pull-side power to do damage at Yankee Stadium, and he appears to be a great "glue guy."
I still think it's more likely that the Cardinals try to retain Donovan with an extension, but the two sides appear to be at an impasse, so I don't doubt that the Cardinals would consider listening to a potential deal. I think Michael is right about the centerpiece on the Yankee side of the trade: Gil or Schmidt is almost certainly the core of the package that would go back to the Cardinals. The secondary piece is where this gets interesting.
The Cards need some pop down the line, but they're thin everywhere on the position player side. Opinions on the Yankees' top-5 prospects vary widely, but I would expect the ask from the Cards to be one of Spencer Jones or George Lombard Jr. (ignore the raw numbers from last season for Lombard; he was very young for the league and performed well above-average in the 2nd half...I have it on good authority that some teams value Lombard more highly than Jones). The truth is that a trade like that would hurt for the Yankees, but it might make some sense.
Donovan can fill a hole at either 2B or 3B quite admirably; his arm is a bit light for 3B (and Chisholm has an above-average arm there), so I might be inclined to keep Chisholm at 3B in this scenario, though I can also understand the argument that the more premium defender should stay in the middle of the diamond, so I'd be okay with either alignment. Donovan checks more boxes than not, so on paper, this would be a good deal. Unfortunately, the Yanks are thin enough behind the top 6 starters that I'm not sure they can afford to part with one of Gil or Schmidt at the moment.
I'm not opposed to acquiring Brendan Donovan, and it makes a lot of sense, but the cost will hurt.
Paul offers the following trade proposal: Giancarlo Stanton and Marcus Stroman to the Angels for Anthony Rendon and cash.
Well, this would certainly aid whatever perceived cash flow issues the Yankees have vis-à-vis the luxury tax. From a baseball perspective though, there's no way I would do this deal. One thing you can't say about either Stanton or Stroman is that they don't give every ounce of what they have every time they step between the lines. Stanton and Stroman both care, and want to be part of a winner. Both are also supposedly great in the clubhouse, and while neither are worth the salaries they are paid, neither contract is truly an albatross.
Rendon is the antithesis of all of those things. Baseball is a job to Rendon, as he has said himself. He is constantly banged up. When he plays, his performance is well below-average. To top it all off, he appears aloof at best, and at worst he is problematic from a PR perspective and in the clubhouse.
In short, I wouldn't take Rendon if the Angels paid the Yankees to take him.
Michael G. also asks: I think our biggest needs are:
1. Leadoff hitter
2. Lefty bullpen arm
3. Keeping some powder dry(money and prospects) to make additions in season
How do you see these needs being handled?
I would love to see the Yankees sign Tanner Scott to create a super bullpen, but I don't think that's in the cards unless they shed some salary elsewhere (yes, that feels entirely stupid to say when talking about the Yankees). I think the lefty bullpen arm is less important than people make it given the 3-batter minimum rule, but I agree that there should be one lefty in the bullpen. I have no doubt but that the Yankees will either have a reunion with Tim Hill or find someone of similar skill, which would be just fine.
Unless the Yanks make a big trade for an infielder, I think the current leadoff hitter is already on the roster. Right now, I would bet that Jazz Chisholm at least begins the season as the leadoff hitter. If Jasson Dominguez can establish himself in the season's first half, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in that spot by the end of the year given his ability to draw walks and see pitches, plus there's the added bonus of his speed and ability on the basepaths.
I'm less concerned with maintaining tradeable prospects, because if something good is available now, I'm fine with making a deal so that there's less pressure at the trade deadline. With expanded playoffs, there are fewer teams selling at the deadline, and thus fewer deals to be had. If a deal exists now, make it.
