SSTN Mailbag: Alcantara, Insurance, A DH Solution, Pitching Prospects, And Predictions!

The game is afoot. While Yankee fans have been in a generally dour mood, I find myself working up some excitement for the season. After all, it is spring, and anything can (and will) happen. Yes, the Yankees have been pounded by injuries. No, I don't think they can get through the full season with the current rotation pieces on-hand (though I'm willing to be pleasantly surprised). However, I also believe this lineup has way more offensive potential than most who see a falling sky will acknowledge.

One of the core fallacies I've noticed of late is the assumption that there will be very little growth from the young bombers who proliferate the lineup. I strongly believe that this is a very poor assumption. How much deeper is this lineup if Austin Wells hits for power, plays good defense, and gets on-base at a .350+ clip? How about if Anthony Volpe breaks the 100 wRC+ threshold, something he's clearly capable of doing? What if Jasson Dominguez holds his own in LF and provides a spark from the left side of the plate? What if Ben Rice shows pop and proves that he can now handle off-speed stuff at the plate? How about if Oswaldo Cabrera locks down the strong side of a platoon at 3B with good defense and acceptable offense? If even 2/3 of that list occurs, the Yankee lineup will almost certainly be really potent! I would argue that this year's lineup has more potential than last year's lineup. Danger lurks throughout the entire lineup this year, and could pose a real tough test for opposing pitchers. That wasn't true once you got to the back-end of the lineup last year, and could really help carry the limping starting pitching staff.

How about the bullpen? This bullpen much more closely resembles the dominant Yankee bullpens of seasons' past. For the first time in forever, the bullpen should actually have 1-2 real long relievers who can help shoulder the load with the weakened starting staff. While we do need to worry about the bullpen wearing down, I think the bullpen is better suited to carry innings this season than it has in a long time. I know that I'm hoping that Yoendrys Gomez pulls off his best Ramiro Mendoza impression.

All of this is to say that there are still plenty of reasons to watch and be excited for the coming season. I recognize that not everything will go according to plan, but that's part of the fun. I still think that this will be a fun team to watch. Rather than sulk about the team's likelihood of making the World Series, let's enjoy the ride, rather than condemn that ride before it starts.

As always, thanks for the great questions, and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. We've got a big Mailbag this week (I couldn't whittle down the questions to 3 this week, so we'll answer some extras), with questions about Sandy Alcantara, Insurance, a solution for DH, pitching prospects, and season predictions! Let's get at it:

fantasyfb3313 asks: what about Sandy Alcantara? he is cheaper than Stroman for the next 2 years and has an option for another year at a bit of a raise

to me if this was the guy we wanted and it was going to cost JDom, then someone should have been on this months ago. if JDom was traded early we would have had quite a few options for adding a LF

i am extremely hesitant to trade JDom now that we have waited all the way through the process and have him ready to start in MLB. to me the guy to be trading now is Lombard. does he look good? sure YES. he looks like Jones looked a year ago. the Yankees really need to get better at trading prospects when they are at the height of value. seriously how many prospects EVER become stars?

but I will throw something out. I just saw a mention of Volpe for Alcantara. i believe the Yankees should say yes to that deal.

Sandy Alcantara is a fantastic pitcher, when healthy. That caveat is incredibly important, as far as I'm concerned. Alcantara was a workhorse, though he often worked around forearm soreness, until he finally needed Tommy John Surgery, ultimately missing the 2024 season. I have a hard time believing that he'll be up to much more than 160 innings in 2025, and even at that, it's really tough to believe that he'll be quite as sharp this season.

That said, the Yankees could absolutely use another good starting pitcher. That puts them in the same bucket as at least 20 other teams. Given the scarcity of good pitching available at the moment, and the high demand, prices are almost certainly insane. Is Sandy Alcantara, a good pitcher coming off of very serious surgery, worth a consensus Top-25 prospect in all of baseball? A Gold Glove winning shortstop? Under normal circumstances, absolutely not. At the current prices, I'm sure that the Marlins will ask for a return like that.

That said, I think the Yankees would be insane to make a move like that, and the same goes for making this trade in, say, November/December. If you really believe in Dominguez's talent, he is worth more to the Yankees this year and for the next 5 seasons than Alcantara. The idea of trading a starting shortstop for an injured pitcher is similarly laughable.

As for Lombard, it is clear that they value him far more than some of the public prospect outlets have prior to recently. The public is catching up to the Yankees' obvious internal assessment, and teams have been asking about Lombard for at least a year in trades. The Yankees are pushing Lombard much faster than they typically push position player prospects in the non-Dominguez division. They clearly believe in the kid. Given the lack of consistent 3B talent (and the dearth of it around the league), it makes sense to try to develop that position internally. Likewise, I'd stick with Lombard.

I think the Yankees' pitching staff is in better shape than some believe, but it is also true that it needs to be supplemented. I believe that there is enough there to get through May/June, which will allow Cashman to wait for prices on starting pitching to come down as more pitchers become available.

The Yankees' best path to a good season includes Volpe and Dominguez having good seasons. Dealing either makes one of the team's projected strengths significantly weaker, which just doesn't make sense.

Robert M. asks: I asked this in the Comments, but didn't see a conclusive answer. Do the Yankees have insurance on Stanton if he's out all year? If so, how much does it pay? Is there a repository listing every insurance police MLB teams take out on players?

Like Robert, I was curious about this as well, and my research...turned up almost nothing. It would be very interesting to know these answers, so if anyone has some inside information, please share either in the comments or the Mailbag email. I find it hard to believe that the Marlins didn't take out an insurance policy on Stanton's contract originally, but I have no idea if insurance in situations like this is transferrable, or if the Yankees needed to obtain a new policy for a prorated portion of Stanton's contract. If there's a repository listing insurance policies teams have taken out on MLB player contracts, it is not public domain.

Again, I find it impossible that the Yanks don't have some level of insurance on Stanton's contract, but I just don't know any of the details, nor have I dug up any information that I can corroborate.

Avon W. opines: Suggestion. Make Aaron Judge the dh and give Spencer Jones some at bat right field.

I think you will see Aaron Judge DH a fair amount. At the very least, I expect that he'll DH when there's a lefty on the mound to give him some rest and get one of Dom Smith or Ben Rice out of the lineup against a lefty. However, there is almost no chance that Spencer Jones could hold his own against MLB pitching right now.

I have long been the low-man on Jones, not because of ceiling, but because I don't believe he can really cover his massive strike zone. Jones produces a long swing and misses more pitches in the strike zone than even fringe big leaguers. He needs to fix that at the lower levels. Jones does an insane amount of damage when he makes contact, but he needs to find a way to make more contact on pitches in the strike zone in order to be successful as he moves up the ladder.

I am really torn as to whether Jones should start in AA or AAA. That said, in Jones' defense, he is really talented. Guys that talented tend to have everything click all at once, and if that happened this year, it is conceivable that he could move quickly. If that happened this season, I could see a scenario where he makes it to the big leagues. However, I don't think there is any world where it makes sense for him to start the year in the Majors.

Alan B. asks: Who's the top pitching prospect? Zach [Messinger] pitched pretty well at AA all of last year. Cam Schlittler has pitched for the Yankees all Spring. Both are not currently on the 40 man roster. Which one, provided both are pitching well, who gets called up first? Oh, and where do you think Schlittler starts, in AA or AAA? I think he spends months in AA first.

I like Messinger quite a bit, but the reality is that he has the ceiling of an innings-eating 4/5 starter. That's a good outcome! But it also isn't enough to make someone a great prospect, as evidenced by the fact that no one took Messinger in the Rule V Draft.

As I noted in my write-up of Schlittler a couple of weeks ago, he is quickly rising up prospect boards for his feel to pitch and his raw stuff, particularly his plus fastball. The Yankees are clearly up to something also, as he's seen a ton of time with the big league club in Spring Training, getting multiple starts against big league clubs even after he was sent back to minor league camp. Either the team is showcasing him for a potential trade, or they're speeding up his development with an eye on Schlittler helping the big league club this year. I still think Schlittler should start at AA, but assuming he pitches well there, I think he could be in AAA by mid-May, which would make him a viable option at the big league level by mid-late summer.

Realistically, it wouldn't shock me if both guys provide some big league innings this year, but Schlittler is the guy to keep an eye on.

Max S. asks: Can you give us your predictions for this season?

I'm going to hedge on that one, and devote a full post to it between this weekend and next week. I'll give you a preview though:

• I think Austin Wells cements himself as a top-5 overall catcher in the sport.

• I think Dominguez will will Rookie Of The Year.

• I think Anthony Volpe will hit just enough to be a top-10 shortstop.

• I think the Yankees will win 90+ games.

• I think Stanton plays...eventually.

• I think the pitching staff will surprise in the first two months of the season.