SSTN Mailbag: 3B Comparison, Stroman, And Make Or Break!

Happy Spring Training! I know that many of us were looking forward to Spring Training after an interesting winter. Of course, it doesn't feel much like Spring Training to me at the moment, looking out my window at cutting wind, blistering cold, and ice here in sunny Syracuse, but I digress. I was home on the day that pitchers and catchers reported to Yankee Spring Training, and that meant that I was able to engage in my usual rituals as players report.

I think that most baseball fans have rituals of some kind for either the start of Spring Training and/or Opening Day. For me, the reporting of pitchers and catchers is simple: I wake up and blast "Centerfield" by John Fogerty, and then I sit quietly and listen to Bernie Williams' rendition of "Take Me Out To The Ballgame;" the bonus with that one is getting to hear Bob Sheppard's voice again, which I miss immensely at Yankee games. I could have followed this ritual anywhere, but being home allowed me to share it with my daughter, who is now old enough to at least enjoy the music. I've been putting her to sleep with "Take Me Out To The Ballgame" since she was a newborn, so she was very receptive to Bernie's version, and she's excited to hopefully see her first baseball game in person this year.

To me, that's what the return of baseball signifies: new beginnings, but also the growth of teams/people about whom we care. People like me often try to find parallels between baseball and life, so I might be reaching a bit, but I can't help but reach when Spring Training arrives. It just puts me in a better mood, so I'm shooting for optimism in today's Mailbag.

As always, thanks for the great questions and keep them coming to SSTNReadermail@gmail.com. In this week's SSTN Mailbag, we'll pick an option at 3B, discuss the Marcus Stroman situation, and pick one player who is facing a make or break season! Let's get at it:

Mark P. asks: You wrote last week about how some combination of Oswald(o) and LeMahieu would perform over a full season at 3B. Many fans would like to see the Yankees trade for Nolan [Arenado] at 3B and the Cardinals sure seem motivated to make a move. Which option do you think is better in 2025 and beyond?

Nolan Arenado has star power, which is always something of a fascination among Yankee fans. Arenado has been a great player for a very long time; I won't take that away from him. He has been one of the best defensive third basemen in the game since he burst onto the scene years ago, and he had serious thump in his bat. Unfortunately, he is also very clearly in the decline phase of his career.

A few years ago, the Yankees went out and traded for Josh Donaldson, a player who was clearly in his decline phase, but who still had peripheral numbers that were promising. We all know how that experiment worked out. Arenado doesn't even have the promising peripherals that Donaldson had. Let that idea sink in for a minute.

Arenado has never been an exit velocity monster, but his exit velocity dropped off sharply last season, as did his max exit velocity, which is indicative of both a loss of not just raw power, but also contact quality. These peripherals are scary by themselves, but they also occurred concurrently with Arenado's continued, steep drop in performance since 2022. Arenado was barely average offensively last season, and if I were a betting man, I'd bet on him being less than that this season.

Arenado remains fantastic defensively, though cracks are forming there as well. Since Statcast began tracking arm strength, Arenado's throw velocity is trending down over the last 3 seasons as well. If he loses much more arm strength, it will impact his ability to convert his range to outs. Add all of this to his contract, which runs through 2027, and the full picture is ugly, hence why Arenado remains with the Cardinals even though they are willing to eat a bunch of money to deal him away.

There is nothing particularly exciting about platoons, but the combination of Oswaldo Cabrera against righties and one of Oswald Peraza or DJ LeMahieu against lefties will be solid defensively and average or better offensively, in all likelihood. I think it's possible that Arenado has one more 2-ish WAR season in the tank, built on the back of good defense. I think the combination of Cabrera/Peraza/LeMahieu is worth at least 2 WAR, maybe more with some luck. I'll take the in-house options over Arenado, and I don't have to weigh the decision for too long either.

Mike A. asks: What are your thoughts on the Marcus Stroman situation and do you think he'll get dealt?

I get that the Yankees are clearly operating on a budget, hence their desire to move Stroman's contract (which isn't great, but it isn't nearly the disaster some are making it out to be...just look at what competent 4/5 starters are getting paid on the open market). However, it's also clear that Stroman is unhappy with both the trade talks and being the odd man out of the rotation.

If I were the Yankees, I wouldn't be too quick to deal good starter depth, given that the success of the 2025 team will be built on the back of good pitching, but I don't see a way around dealing Stroman at this point. I think a deal will come together at some point.

I also think it's a bit easier to deal Stroman given an interesting development in Yankee camp. The Yankees signed Carlos Carrasco to a minor league deal just before the start of Spring Training. He showed up to camp with improved mechanics and a surprising uptick in velocity, from barely cracking 90 MPH up to 92-94 MPH, which more closely matches Carrasco's peak. He's a veteran who is universally liked throughout baseball and a great clubhouse presence. I think there's a non-zero chance Carrasco sticks around to fill Stroman's role of swing-man long reliever who can start when needed. The Yankees have gained starting pitching depth, which allows them to move Stroman more easily now than two months ago.

David B. asks: Can you pick one Yankee at any level who is facing a make or break season? Minor or major league.

This is an easy one for me: Spencer Jones. I was not on the Jones train the way others were last season, but I do recognize the eye-popping raw tools that Jones brings to the table. I have never believed in the hit tool, and Jones proved that concern correct last year, swinging and missing more than any other viable prospect in the minor leagues. When he made contact though, his numbers were among the best in the minors with few peers. At the risk of over-hyping, the numbers were Judge-ian.

Jones rightly moved off of a host of Top-100 Prospect lists this offseason. However, if you polled the scouts and evaluators who made those lists, I would not be surprised if many would list Jones as the player most likely to re-appear on those lists with a better showing. I think if Jones proves he can close holes in his swings and swing decisions, he's back to being an inner-circle prospect. If he continues to post contact rates under 75% on swings in the strike zone, I think he might become an almost non-prospect. That's a lot at stake, and I'm not sure anyone else in the Yankee system is facing such a dichotomy.