Series Aftermath

Series Aftermath, Lessons Learned and the Path Forward

…Early November Insights from Cary Greene

November 6, 2024

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On one hand, the Yankees entire organization deserves a pat on the back for making the World Series this season. The team came together down the stretch and the pitching rose to the occasion throughout the postseason. There are some other finer points to understand, before we pat Brian Cashman, Aaron Boone and the Yankees on the back however.

Multiple reports are circulating that the Dodgers considered the Yankees to be an inferior opponent in this season’s World Series, but without getting into all of the specifics, let’s first consider things from a Yankees perspective.

Since 1903, World Series champions have averaged a 113.38 ERA+ so this year’s pitching was a bit under where a typical championship staff would like to be positioned, as reflected by the 110 ERA+ that the Yankees pitching staff recorded during the regular season - which was good for a 3.74 Regular Season ERA.

During this year’s postseason, the Yankees staff pitched to a 3.46 ERA, so it’s fair to say that the Yankees pitching staff rose to the postseason challenge as the team’s performance on the mound ranked fourth out of the 12 teams that made the playoffs. This performance is a far cry from the Yankees being the eighth or ninth best team entering the postseason, because, after all, postseason pitching has proven to matter very much throughout the history of the World Series.

Considering that the Dodgers ranked 9th this postseason (4.50 ERA) and also factoring in that in the World Series, the Dodgers team ERA was 4.80 while the Yankees were a full run better at 3.83 - the Boys in Blue really weren’t an unbeatable team during their run to the franchise’s eighth world championship.

Offensively, the Yankees batted .257 (9 for 35) with runners in scoring position, whereas the Dodgers hit .184 (7-38). Meanwhile, the Yankees stranded 43 base runners compared to the Dodgers tally of 29 men left on base and with four of the five games being tightly contested, a timely hit here or there by the Yankees would have mattered a lot. In fact, a hit or two here or there might have made all the difference in this series.

This year’s loss to the Dodgers in the fall classic was more about the Yankees not executing defensively. From Judge not using two hands to make a fundamentally sound, routine catch to Volpe committing crucial gaffes, to Gerrit Cole not bothering to cover first base - the Yankees were eliminated due to both the sloppy play and also, because they went 1-10 with runners in scoring position in Game 5. The Dodgers won this year’s World Series because they didn’t beat themselves and the Yankees did the opposite.

Regarding the lesson that the Dodgers taught the Yankees in this World Series, I was starkly reminded of the lesson that Cincinnati's Big Red Machine taught the Yankees during their 4-0 Bicentennial World Series sweep of the ‘76 Yankees. The ‘76 Reds were led by Series MVP Johnny Bench, who batted .533 with two home runs and six RBI’s,  in similar fashion to this year’s series MVP, Freddie Freeman who hit .300 with four home runs and 12 RBI’s. The better team won in both this year’s and 1976’s Series, each team keyed by a star player and with each team doing the little things as they won close games and took care of business.

Apparently the lesson George Steinbrenner learned from the ‘76 Series beatdown that the Reds inflicted upon the Yankees, was that he needed to use free agency to improve the Yankees in key areas and improve them he did - as he added Reggie Jackson who was formerly with the Oakland A’s in order to improve the heart of the Yankees lineup.

This offseason, if George’s son Hal Steinbrenner is successful in signing Juan Soto, one has to wonder, what else (if anything) will he do to improve the heart of the Yankees lineup in similar fashion to the way his father did by adding a player who go on to be remembered as “Mr. October.” Bringing back Soto does little to upgrade the Yankees lineup, but adding other key pieces would make a heck of a similar statement to what his father did in the ‘76-77 offseason.

This offseason certainly provides an opportunity for the Yankees to reset a little bit and perhaps Brian Cashman will be able to shore up key areas of the team that need marked improvements. The key question being, does Cashman have the goahead from team owner Hal Steinbrenner to make this happen? Personally, I don’t think it’s in the cards but Brian Cashman has to realize that, even if he signs Soto, offensively, the Yankees don’t have a ton of value coming back next season.

Each season I refer to FanGraphs to construct a chart based on fDollars to show what kind of value the Yankees got from the players who not only played the season prior, but who will be returning. Based on my chart below, the Yankees not only need Soto back, but they need another productive, middle of the order bat as well. There’s a high likelihood that this need will be filled internally also, but check out my chart nonetheless and ask yourself – is this returning firepower going to be enough?

Last season, based on spend vs performance, the Yankees had six productive players who will likely be returning this season – Gleyber Torres was productive but he’s a goner and both Anthony Rizzo (also a goner) and DJ LeMahieu aren’t even worth looking at. Minus Soto, the Yankees would have Judge and Chisholm to count on and folks, that’s simply not going to be enough firepower.

Shortly after the Trade Deadline this past season, I wrote that, “I'm not a fan routinely depleting the farm system every year at the Trade Deadline because I think having to do this shows a glaring flaw in the offseason planning and roster building process of Cashman's front office, but the Yankees have an awful lot invested in this year's team and retaining Soto this offseason is by no means a given.” Cashman’s Yankees saga will continue on, as will that of Yankees skipper Aaron Boone and it may turn out to be a very good thing that Cashman resisted further scuttling the Yankees farm system at last season’s Trade Deadline.

Recapping what Brian Cashman accomplished at the Deadline, I also wrote that, “There were instances where the Yankees were looking at a rotation upgrade and they were told flat out that, “they don’t match up.” Let’s face it, the Orioles have the premier farm system from which to deal and for a team like the Yankees, trading for star power at the deadline is a very tall task because they have a much weaker system. Selling teams, as they usually do, tried once again to extract maximum value and force buying teams into overpay situations. Cashman largely avoided overpaying, so there is that to consider.”

There’s no doubt that this year’s Yankees team needed a better back end of the bullpen, but they also needed a few players who hit for average while also posting well above average other batting metrics like OPS and wRC+. I’m not sure trying to accomplish all of that at a Trade Deadline is really the best way to operate a franchise and so for once, what I’d like to see Brian Cashman do during the offseason is to put together a well balanced team that crosses all the t’s and dots all the i’s!

Players the Yankees were drooling over at this year’s Deadline are now free agents. The coveted ace that the Yankees wanted, Corbin Burnes, is available. Walker Buehler is also available, as are Max Fried and Blake Snell. If I’m Cashman and I’m trying to keep the Yankees championship window open, adding a top shelf starter or two would seem to be priority number uno.

Turning our attention to the bullpen, the lights out closer the Yankees couldn’t afford to trade for at last year’s deadline, Tanner Scott, is also a free agent. Other available bullpen arms that intrigue are Blake Treinen, Seranthony Dominguez, David Robertson and of course, reuniting with Clay Holmes and or Tommy Kahnle are both potential options as well.

White the Yankees are expected to pursue free agent Juan Soto, other offensive upgrades exist in this offseason’s free agent class as well. Alex Bregman is up for grabs this offseason and so are Pete Alonso, Christian Walker, Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernandez, Tyler O’Neill and potentially even Joc Pederson.

With a projected 2025 payroll at $244 million (including likely arbitration numbers) and considering that team owner Hal Steinbrenner has repeatedly said that a championship-caliber team doesn’t need a $300 million payroll, it seems like the top Competitive Balance Tax tier of $291 million might be set by Steinbrenner as the ceiling of what he allows Brian Cashman to spend. If this happens, the Yankees will struggle mightily to get back to the World Series. In fact, I’m not even sure they could be classified as a contender.

What I expect is that the Yankees will be doing addition by subtraction this offseason, with a goal of giving Soto a $50 plus million dollar deal. Considering the Bombers are on the hook for Aaron Judge ($40 million), Cole ($36 million) and Giancarlo Stanton ($32 million in ’25, but declining each year after that), to stay under $291 million, the plan is going to have to be to scrimp and save in multiple other areas. Since scrimp means to get by and do without and save means to not spend, the outlook for the Yankees this offseason isn’t one with sugar plum farries dancing around the Christmas tree. In fact, Yankees fans will be very lucky to get a few candy canes.

A plan in alignment with my theory that the Yankees will mostly scrimp and save this offseason might be to rely more than ever on the short list of Yankees ready now prospects, some of which will need to be protected from the upcoming Rule 5 Draft. Prospects like Caleb Durbin and right-hander Zach Messinger, the organizations # 17 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, would likely be snatched by any number of teams looking to poach the Yankees stockpile of organizational talent.

Current Rule 5 eligible position players of note include Antonio Gomez (C/DH, 110 wRC+ in High-A last season), TJ Rumfield (1B/DH, 116 wRC+ AAA), Anthony Seigler (C, 2B, 118 wRC+ AA) and Elijah Dunham (OF, 125 wRC+ AA). On the pitching side, other than protecting Messinger, there doesn’t appear to be a ton of talent to worry about losing, though the Yankees do have accurately evaluate 25 or so Minor League pitchers who are all Rule 5 Draft eligible.

We’ve seen Cashman make some huge Rule 5 blunders in recent years with regards to his inability to properly evaluate eligible minor league pitchers – most notably when the Yankees lost both Garrett Whitlock and Trevor Stephan in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft, with Whitlock going to the Red Sox and Stephan to the Guardians.

Other Yankees position prospects like Oswald Peraza, Jasson Dominguez and Ben Rice seem like they’re going to factor into next year’s plans, especially considering that the Yankees will have Jon Berti and Jazz Chisholm  both under team control, which gives them some flexibility with the infield. Oswaldo Cabrera will likely return as the team’s utility man and Oswald Peraza is also still in the system and potentially he could help out as well.

Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a sign Soto or bust this offseason from the Yankees and Brian Cashman this offseason. Based on his age and his bat, I think an all in approach to sign Soto is in order and I don’t think I’m in the minority on this issue in the least. He proved he’s a great fit in the Bronx this season and his defense wasn’t just passable, it was actually elite (he was a Gold Glove award runner up)

It seems like every offseason I lead with, “Personally, I’d love it if the Yankees could move on from Giancarlo Stanton” but the reality of that happening is a nonstarter. Stanton is nowhere near worth the money he’s being paid, per his fValue, so I highly doubt any team in their right mind would want to open their coffers to import him and besides, he has a full no trade clause in his contract so it’s virtually guaranteed that he’ll be back in pinstripes next season and likely, for the duration of his remaining contract.

My plan, if I were the GM, given that Cole is coming back, would be to back up that move by going after Soto, 100 percent, all in style. Then, adding Corbin Burns and Tanner Scott at all costs would be my priorities for this offseason. Let the payroll fall where it may, but those would be my three huge moves.

When I looked at the 1977 Yankees lineup top to bottom, which featured Reggie Jackson, Willie Randolph, Graig Nettles, Chris Chambliss and Thurman Munson among others, it’s clear that the 2025 Yankees don’t stack up to well (other than Judge and perhaps, if signed, Soto), so it’s fairly clear that a team intent on learning not only from lessons taught in the past but from this year’s loss in the World Series, would want to get stronger on the infield corners and perhaps even fortify it’s bullpen even a little bit more.

Therefore, I would love to see the Yankees also make a run at Christian Walker, Alex Bregman and or Blake Treinen and Seranthony Dominguez and if they accomplished all that, I’d call it an offseason for the ages - knowing full well that my dreams and wishes are very far from the payroll reality that keeps the Yankees from being the Yankees in today’s Hal Steinbrenner day and age.

Unfortunately, the Yankees still have DJ LeMahieu under contract so the mere presence of him hinders Cashman’s ability to go out and sign a productive third baseman like Bregman. Therefore, expect to see a mix of Oswaldo Cabrera, Jon Berti, Jazz Chisholm and possibly Oswald Peraza manning the hot corner for the Yankees next season.

First base however remains a big opportunity for the Yankees and I don’t see Cashman being content to gift the position to Ben Rice, considering his lack of overall production during his call up this past season. The Yankees lineup could use one more big left-handed bat and since Reggie Jackson is long retired, Cashman will need to figure out how to imbue the middle of the Yankees lineup with power.

One notion of mine would be to give Caleb Durbin a look at second base and try him in the leadoff position to start next season. This doesn’t solve the Yankees need for a left-handed cleanup bat, but who knows, maybe Jasson Dominguez could become THAT GUY? Here’s to hoping he can do it and if not, Kyle Schwarber is a free agent after next season and he remains a DH with a quick bat that can hit elite postseason pitching.

In my Yankees 2026 World Series vision. If the Yankees go for broke this offseason and let the payroll fall where it may, throwing the CBT to the wind, they’d be in amazing shape for return to the World Series next season and that could be the beginning of the next Yankees dynasty. Alas, I’m afraid Hal Steinbrenner has other plans!