Sal's AL Divisional Series Preview

By Sal Maiorana

October 5, 2024

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Sal Maiorana, a friend of the site, shares some of his thoughts on the Yankees.

For Sal's complete analysis on the New York Yankees, you can subscribe to Sal Maiorana's free Pinstripe People Newsletter at https://salmaiorana.beehiiv.com/subscribe.

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For anyone who may still be wondering what the difference is between winning the division and finishing with the first- or second-best record in the league, which affords those teams a bye past the wild-card round, do you really still need for me to explain it?

The Baltimore Orioles, who were the consensus favorite before this began to win the American League, lost out to the Yankees in the AL East so they had to play a best-of-three wild-card series against the Kansas City Royals.

Of course the Orioles were favored, especially since all the games would be at Camden Yards. However, the Orioles have been playing like garbage for the better part of three months, underwhelming at an alarming rate, while the Royals have been chugging along and putting the misery of their 106-loss season in 2023 behind them. They were clearly playing better at the end of the season, and sure enough they swept Baltimore right into the offseason thanks to dominant pitching against an Orioles lineup that just forgot how to hit down the stretch.

Same thing happened to the Astros, who won the AL West but did not beat out the Yankees or Guardians for a top two record so they had to play in the wild-card round. They were at home, too, and it didn’t matter because their opponent, the Tigers, played better than any team in the AL over the final seven weeks and they kept it rolling in Houston.

Over in the National League, the Central champion Brewers did not beat out the Dodgers or Phillies so their reward was a series against the Mets who were still riding the high from their incredible victory on Monday against Atlanta which clinched their berth. New York won the opener, lost the second, and was three outs away from being eliminated when Pete Alonso hit one of the most dramatic home runs in franchise history, a three-run shot in the ninth to win the game. That was unbelievable; I almost fell off the couch watching that.

The only wild-card series that went according to plan was the Padres sweep of the exhausted, injury-riddled Braves who barely got into the tournament, but was ill-equipped to beat a San Diego team which right now might be playing the best of any team still alive.

So yeah, lets be glad the Yankees skipped this round because undoubtedly, there would have been some nail-biting drama.

Of course, that’s probably what it’s store for us starting Saturday night when they open play at Yankee Stadium against the Royals.

Here’s my quick preview of the best-of-five series:

Season series:

The Yankees won three of four in Kansas City back in June, and it should have been a four-game sweep but Clay Holmes blew the save in the last game in the bottom of the ninth inning. When the teams played at Yankee Stadium Sept 9-11, the Yankees took two of three, winning the finale in walk-off fashion in the 11th inning on Jazz Chisholm’s RBI single. That makes it 5-2 in favor of the Yankees and they outscored the Royals 42-24.

Key stats:

The Yankees averaged 5.03 runs per game this season which ranked third in MLB while the Royals were 13th at 4.54. … As for the pitching, the Royals starters’ ERA was a terrific 3.55 which ranked second, while the Yankees were 11th at 3.85. … In the bullpen, the Yankees were 3.62 which ranked sixth while the Royals were 4.13 which was 20th. … It seems hard to believe from the Yankees’ side, especially with all my complaining, but they actually were very good with runners in scoring position as their .808 OPS was tied for third-best, and the Royals were just behind them in fourth at .794. … The Yankees led MLB in drawn walks with 672 (it helps to have Juan Soto and Aaron Judge). That was 70 more than the runner-up Dodgers. … Carlos Rodon, who is pitching Game 2, faced the Royals twice this year and allowed just two runs in 13 innings. … Bobby Witt would have been the AL MVP if not for Judge. The Royals shortstop led MLB in average (.332) and hits (211) and also had 88 extra-base hits, including 32 homers, 31 steals and a .977 OPS. … Kansas City was the best team in MLB at limiting the run game as it allowed just 58 stolen bases. The Tigers were next best, allowing 96, so that’s a crazy great stat. … If the Yankees are going to do anything this postseason, they have to hit so much better than they have in October. Here are their team batting averages since 2017, Judge’s first full season: 2017 (.209); 2018 (.219); 2019 (.239); 2020 (.262); 2021 (.188); and 2022 (.173). Brutal.

Pitching matchups and schedule:

Game 1: Yankee Stadium, Saturday, 6:38 p.m., TBS: Gerrit Cole (8-5, 3.41 ERA, 1.126 WHIP, 3.41 K/BB ratio) against Michael Wacha (13-8, 3.35 ERA, 1.194 WHIP, 3.22 K/BB ratio).

Game 2: Yankee Stadium, Monday, 7:38 p.m.; TBS: Carlos Rodon (16-9, 3.96 ERA, 1.223 WHIP, 3.42 K/BB) against Cole Ragans (11-9, 3.14 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 3.33 K/BB).

Game 3: Kauffman Stadium, Wednesday, TBS. Time and pitching matchups to be determined.

Game 4: Kauffman Stadium, Thursday, TBS (if necessary). Time and pitching matchups to be determined.

Game 5: Yankee Stadium, Saturday, Oct. 12, TBS (if necessary). Time and pitching matchups to be determined.