Realistic Options At First Base

By Andy Singer

November 30th, 2024

Photo Credit - Eric Hartline, USA TODAY Sports

If you read the title of today's post, obviously I didn't quite get enough writing done on my offseason plan to post it today. However, I thought I'd give a bit of a sneak preview. First base is the most glaring hole in the Yankee lineup right now. As much as I like Ben Rice, he did not take the position and run with it last season when given the opportunity. Clearly, the Yankees do not believe that TJ Rumfield is a potential answer at first base; otherwise, he wouldn't have been left exposed to the Rule 5 Draft when the Yankees still have open 40-man roster spots. These realities pretty clearly show that the Yankees plan to look outside of the organization for first base help.

I've scoured the league for first base options both on the free agent market and the realistic trade market. The hard truth is that there just isn't a ton out there that both fits the Yankees' needs and can be realistically acquired. Having sifted through this list, I'll present three options for the Yankees at first base. Two of them should be fairly familiar to Yankee fans, as they've both been discussed to varying degrees over the last year or so. The third is an out-of-left-field idea I had perusing potential trade fits.

One person you won't see on my list is Carlos Santana, a guy that I know many of you like as a budget option. I view Santana as an expensive platoon option whose performance could completely fall off a cliff at any moment given his age. All three of the guys I'll mention below are better options than Carlos Santana in 2025.

The Big Free Agent: Christian Walker

Christian Walker is a complete package at first base. There are really only a few negatives when discussing Walker: he's a late bloomer, so he's older than the typical first-time free agent at 33; he'll likely be the most expensive option at first base this offseason; he's right-handed, and for years many Yankee fans have beat their fists on the table for a left-handed hitting first baseman; and his strikeout rate spiked in 2024. As I see it, points two and four are the only genuinely worrisome points.

Assuming the Yanks sign Juan Soto (a big "if") to something in the $47-$50 million AAV range, the team will almost certainly not have a ton of room in the budget to take on major expenditures elsewhere. I expect Walker to fetch a contract that puts him somewhere between $20-$25 million AAV. That could fit in the Yankees' budget even with Soto in the fold, but it will likely force the Yankees to get creative. Without other moves, the combination of Soto and Walker likely would put the Yankees close to last season's payroll by themselves.

The other concern is the spike in strikeout rate. Luckily, there is nothing more in the peripheral data to show that Walker is slipping. His whiff rates are in-line with previous norms; his bat speed is nearly elite; and his hard contact rates are on the rise. I think Walker is a good bet to play up to his next contract.

The other concerns people have about Walker play right into the Yankees' current needs. The Yanks struggled against lefty pitching last season, and Walker gives the Yankees a thumper from the right side to help balance the lineup. As for concerns about his age, I see no signs of age related decline, so it plays into the team's favor that a relatively short 2-3 year agreement is in-play for Walker.

Walker is really the total package. He's one of the best first base defenders in the sport; he's rock-reliable at the plate with gobs of power to all-fields; his excellent walk rate more than makes up for a below-average strikeout rate; and he doesn't miss mistake pitches, something the Yankees could use more of.

Walker is the most expensive option the Yankees have this offseason, but he's also pretty clearly the best option at first base in a vacuum.

The Most Popular Trade Option: Lamonte Wade Jr.

It feels like we've been talking about Lamonte Wade Jr. forever, but I think the first Mailbag question I ever answered about a trade proposal that included him was at the beginning of the 2023 season. In a host of ways, I think that Wade is a really good fit for the Yankees. Wade makes tons of contact, and despite his reputation as a light-hitter, his hard contact rates and line drive rates say otherwise. In fact, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Wade hit 20-25 homers away from San Francisco, a ballpark at which it is notoriously difficult to produce power numbers.

The eye test and reputation has always told me that Lamonte Wade Jr. is a good defensive first baseman, but most of the hard defensive numbers say otherwise. The numbers are consistent enough that it has me re-evaluating my take on that front, but I think it's safe to say that Wade is average at best defensively, and likely worse than that in reality. He might not be as poor defensively as what the Yankees got this season, but it doesn't look great by the numbers.

What you do get with Wade is an ideal table-setter. Wade works counts and has some of the best plate discipline in the Majors. Wade has elite walk rates and chase rates, and better yet, rarely makes contact when he chases, so most of his contact is reasonably ideal. Wade makes contact on pitches in the strike zone at well above-average rates and has enough pop to do damage when he does so. Better yet, Wade should only cost roughly $4.7 million in 2025, and the Yankees match-up with the Giants reasonably well on the trade front.

Lamonte Wade Jr. is a popular option on the trade market, but I also think he's a very good option for a Yankee team that needs a lead-off man who also would stabilize first base.

The Dark Horse Trade Candidate: Alec Burleson

OK, I can hear it coming now: "But Andy, he's an outfielder." It's true that his primary position has been in the outfield corners, but Burleson's days there are numbered due to substandard range, and he has taken a fair number of innings at first base over the last two seasons, so it's not like he's unfamiliar with the position. The numbers also indicate that Burleson is better at first base defensively than he is in the outfield.

Burleson is a poor outfielder, but appears to have the tools to be a solid first baseman. Burleson also hits his best when he plays first base, producing a .330/.385/.491 line when playing the position.

Burleson was a good prospect who has underwhelmed somewhat since his arrival in the big leagues. However, Burleson's peripheral numbers are excellent. Burleson hits the ball hard, rarely strikes out, consistently produces low whiff rates, squares up the ball frequently with roughly average bat speed, is an excellent baserunner despite slow sprint speeds, and has a simple swing that should produce more with a tweak or two. I think Burleson's best baseball is ahead of him, and he comes with a few years of team control. I think Burleson would be an expensive, but not prohibitively expensive option on the trade market, and the Yankees and Cardinals match-up quite well in a trade.

We know the Yankees and Cardinals have been in touch multiple times over the last two years about potential trades, so we know that these teams are itching to make a deal. Best of all, Burleson will certainly cost less than $1 million in 2025, giving the Yankees plenty of payroll flexibility even with Soto in the fold. Burleson is a left-handed batter with pop who is likely to produce well above last season's .730 OPS, and I think moving him to first base permanently is part of the solution to getting him there. Burleson is a really interesting option who should be available this offseason.