Quick Thoughts: Luis Arraez

By: Ethan Semendinger

January 7th, 2025

***

Originally, we had an article about Gavin Lux written up and scheduled. He's now a Red. So, what about Luis Arraez?

---

What Do We Know?

Jeff Passan, of ESPN, posted a paywalled article for ESPN+ yesterday titled, "Teams winning MLB's offseason and those in need of a move" (link here), of which many people read and highlighted from it that Passan has linked the Yankees and Padres in a trade for Luiz Arraez. Specifically, according to Darius Glover, Passan mentioned that the Yankees and Padres have discussed his name in trades. Though, if you believe Jon Heyman, the Yankees do not see him as a fit for the team.

So, what do we know? Just about nothing.

However, that doesn't mean we can't wildly speculate ourselves. And, this isn't the first time we, here at StartSpreadingTheNews, have talked about Arraez.

---

What Have We Said (Before)?

In the last year, Luis Arraez has been mentioned in three articles. The first was on April 12th, as a part of Andy Singer's weekly mailbag series, during which Andy wrote:

"given the Marlins' likely status as a seller this season, I'd be interested in getting more out of a deal with the Marlins. Just for kicks, I wanted to look at what a deal for Arraez and the guy he displaced at 2B, Jazz Chisholm, would look like:

If you're a prospect hugger, be sure to look away, but this trade would make a lot of sense for both teams. The Marlins get significant pieces to begin their rebuild, and the Yankees get two players who fit like gloves on the roster this year and next year. Gleyber Torres will be a free agent after this year, and Chisholm was an excellent 2B who only moved to accommodate Arraez. Chisholm could get Judge out of CF this year, and move back to 2B the following year. A guy can dream, I guess."

It is quite interesting that Andy was a good few months ahead of the Yankees getting Jazz Chisholm, which happened at the trade deadline last season. Funny though how plans change with Chisholm being seen (rightfully) as a center fielder and he is now firmly an infielder with a position to be determined later.

Our next instance of Luis Arraez consideration came the next week in one of Paul Semendinger's "Perspectives" posts, where he wrote:

"If the Marlins have a fire sale, I would love the Yankees to get Luis Arraez. I say this and immediately hear, "His defense is awful." Okay. Right now Gleyber Torres' defense isn't great. If I have to pick between the two, I'll take the guy with two batting titles and a lifetime batting average of .324. Arraez is also only 27-years-old. Sure, I'd rather have Willie Randolph, who could hit and field, but given the choice between Arraez and Torres, I think the better player to help win a 2024 World Series is Arraez."

It's safe to say that last year the player with a triple-slash of .314/.346/.392 and a OPS/OPS+ of .739/106 was better than the player with a .257/.330/.378 triple slash and a .709 OPS/101 OPS+. Arraez was the first player and Torres was the second. Even if his defense was a bit worse, Arraez- in a clear down year- clearly outhit Gleyber Torres.

Then a few more of us considered Arraez as part of a "Tuesday Discussion" in May after he was traded to the San Diego Padres.

For the most part, our writers universally agreed that Arraez was a missed target, though I don't want to single out or highlight any of our writers with a specific comment. If you are interested, check the link above and see for yourself.

Funny enough, I didn't add my two cents to that Tuesday Discussion. Whoops!

---

So, What Do I (Ethan) Think?

I missed the Tuesday Discussion from this past May, but I can make up for it now:

The Yankees missed out on Arraez. They should've traded for him. And now they can correct that wrong.

Arraez had a down season in 2024, producing just 1.0 bWAR. That doesn't seem promising, however, the Yankees just went through getting a player coming out of San Diego on a disappointing season have a massive turn around with them. Maybe you heard of him? I remember him hazily...John Solo? Something like that. However, his story is indicative of an interesting couple of statistics:

Here are the most recent Ballpark Factors (from BaseballSavant) including 2024:

• Petco Park (for left-handed batters): 96

• Yankee Stadium (for left-handed batters): 100

Interestingly, Petco Park is a better ballpark for hitting singles (96 vs. 87) and doubles (97 vs. 92), while Yankee Stadium is a better ballpark for triples (44 vs. 42) and home runs (119 vs. 93). So, while Arraez may lose a few singles, he would gain a larger (relative) number of home runs.

Consider this for 2025: A .300/.350/.450 hitting second baseman with 200 hits and 10 home runs in lead-off spot with fewer than 50 strikeouts and about 50 walks. That's a player I'd sign immediately.

That is what Luis Arraez could do, for the Yankees, in Yankee Stadium.

He's going into his age-28 season, he's won the batting title in each of the last three seasons, played 140+ game in each of the last three seasons, been an All-Star in each of the last three seasons, and received MVP votes in each of the last three seasons.

If his defensive is like Torres' it can be dealt with. The Yankees have survived that experiment, and while it isn't preferred, it can be worked around.

The Yankees haven't had a true lead-off hitter in a long time. A a consistent .300+ AVG hitter with the occasional pop, ability to get hits for Anthony Volpe (the 9 hitter) to grab an extra base, and his solid OBP for Judge to hit more than solo homers is a great asset. It will outweigh whatever negatives there could be.

Get him.

I'm in.