by Cary Greene
October 2, 2024
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Before each postseason begins, I use the lessons of past World Series champions to predict how things will unfold, but last season I must admit that I was baffled by both World Series entrants making it as far as they did. Truth be told, I thought neither the Rangers, nor the Diamondbacks had nearly enough pitching to win it all. During the regular season in 2023, the League Average ERA+ was a 101, with the Rangers tallying a perfectly average 101 and the Diamondbacks coming in with a 99.
Why do I look at this and why do I think that a team's regular season ERA+ is the most reliable predictor of what team will still be standing when the dust of the playoffs finally settles?
Simply put, since 1903, past champions have averaged a 113.48 ERA+ and only 7 times in history has the World Series winner's regular season pitching been below League Average and in 5 of those instances, the champion's pitching staff was dramatically better than League Average in the World Series.
Therefore, though the 2023 Rangers fielded only a League Average regular season pitching staff during the regular season, which was well below the average of past champions, I did identify them as a dark horse that could win -- if only their pitching staff could heat up during the postseason and that's exactly what happened. In 2023, the league average ERA was 4.33 (the Rangers were a smidge better at 4.28) and in the postseason, the Rangers team ERA held serve, posing a 4.21 which gave their stellar offense a chance to win it all and that's exactly what they did. If past history remains true, then the Orioles, Dodgers and Diamondbacks are complete long shots with very slim chances to win it all -- so with the Birds, the Boys in Blue and the Snakes weeded out, which teams will win and how will things unfold you ask?
My short list of favorites include the Braves, Brewers, Guardians, Tigers and Royals as each of these teams have superior pitching.
Past champions have also averaged a regular season OPS+ of 104.2 and none of my favorites are remotely near this mark. However, the Brewers (101), Braves (100), Guardians (99) and Royals (98) both have the potential of being able score barely enough runs to make their elite pitching hold up - so I'm weeding out the Tigers (94) on the grounds that they very likely won't be able to deal with elite postseason pitching.
Well, well, here we are - I'm down to the Braves, Brewers, Guardians and Royals as being my best guesses to make it all the way. I have to give a slight nod here to the Braves as I think they're the best team of this bunch and I like that they've had to scratch and claw down the stretch in order to even qualify for the playoffs. In 2021 the Braves won with a barely adequate offense and I think this year's team is easily better offensively.
As for the Yankees? I don't think their pitching will be good enough to deliver a championship and yes, I do hope I'm very wrong about that. I'm not at all confident the Yankees can make it out of the Division Series let alone the ALCS. In the American League, I don't think the Astros pitching will be able to shut down a team with a hot offense. In the National League, I expect the Dodgers and the Padres to have the same problem. Therefore, I'm prepared for another wild MLB postseason.
Unfortunately, I'm right about these sorts of predictions far more often than I'm wrong. Here's to hoping I'm very wrong this year, because I think a Yankees vs Dodgers series for all the marbles would be great for baseball. Unfortunately, I just don't see this as being remotely in the cards.
Many fans simply don't understand how valuable pitching is in the postseason and to those who don't get it - I can only say, "Prepare to learn the same old lesson that the game of baseball has taught astute observers since 1903!"
Could I be wrong? Sure, but I doubt it very much.
Looks like my prediction of the Braves being the best bet to win the World Series this season has been snuffed out. Chris Sale and Max Fried both came up lame, but them's the breaks. However, I see that the Royals absolutely suffocated a potent Orioles offense while the Tigers pitching simply dominated a good Astros offense. Also, the Padres got a gem out of Mike King so again, pitching won out in their series with the Braves. Meanwhile, the Brewers are favored to win tonight against the Mets.
What does it all mean? Nothing yet, the Yankees, Dodgers and Phillies are ready to try to prove me wrong and my favorites, the teams with the most dominant pitching staffs…
Can a Team with Below Average Pitching Win it All?
The short answer is yes, it’s remotely possible. It’s been done eight times in the history of MLB. We can actually weed five of these teams out though, because each of them won in part because their pitching got dramatically better in the World Series - than it was in the regular season.
Most recently, 2012 Giants won with an ERA+ 5 points below League Average, but their pitching staff was lights out in the World Series, posting a 1.46 ERA, compared to their 3.68 regular season mark - so I’d have to conclude that in the end, the ‘12 Giants won because of vastly improved postseason pitching.
The 2006…
AJ Hinch started the Astros dynasty. AJ Hinch just ended the Astros dynasty.
Amos Otis and Chicken Stanley. Looking forward to a good series.
The Birds have been shot down in Royal fashion. YANKEES VS ROYALS. Brings back POST SEASON memories of Chris Chambliss and George Brett. Ron Guidry and the late Paul Splittorff. Bucky Dent and Fred Patek. Darrel Porter and the late Thurman Munson. I could go on and on.