Perspectives: Knowing When To Fold Them...

By Paul Semendinger

March 14, 2025

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If I ran the Yankees, I'd give them April. "You have a month fellas."

If I ran the Yankees, I'd give Aaron Boone (or Brian Cashman, or whoever makes the decisions) a month to run the team as best as he sees fit... He (or they) would get the month of April. If the team looks good and looks competitive at the end of the month, and they look like they could be a contender, I'd then say, "I'll give it another month."

In short, I'd play the entire 2025 season going month-to-month. The moment it becomes clear that the team isn't a contender, I'd move on from the veterans who won't be part of the next core. (That really means most of the position players other than Aaron Judge and Jazz Chisholm.) Once it becomes clear that the 2025 Yankees don't have a chance to be elite (and I think that will become apparent to all very early in the season), I'd jump into a complete youth movement.

We've been over all of the facts before. For the 2025 Yankees to be a top team, they will need all (or most) of the following to occur:

• Austin Wells is going to have to become a top catcher

• Paul Goldschmidt is going to have to turn back the clock

• Anthony Volpe is going to have to hit

• Oswald Peraza is going to have to be a Major League quality third baseman

• Jasson Dominguez is going to have to be a Major League level left fielder

• Cody Bellinger needs to rebound

• Aaron Judge needs to continue to be elite

• Someone has to be a back-up catcher

• Someone has to become a good lead off hitter

• Someone has to be able to be a quality DH

• Numerous starting pitchers who have been not good and/or injured have to change the trajectory of their careers

• Luis Gil needs to return and be a top starter

• The bullpen staff have to all pitch at the top of their games

• Aaron Boone has to manage well

• The minor league talent needs to have big years to be able to be called up to help the team or be good enough to be able to be traded for quality players who can help this team

• Brian Cashman is going to have to make some brilliant trades

• Hal Steinbrenner is going to have to be willing to spend money when talent is available

• Every starting player going forward has to stay healthy (because there is no depth)

• And more.

In short, there are far far far too many question marks on this team. The Yankees need a core of young kids to all come of age at the same time. None of this is realistic or likely. That is just the reality. Expecting most of the above to all occur is asking a lot. It's simply not realistic. That's the harsh reality. I wish it wasn't.

I know some people will want to argue with me about this, but, before you do, please list the Yankees' strengths. I'll make my list:

• Aaron Judge is elite

• Max Friend is an excellent starting pitcher

• Devin Williams is a top closer

• Paul Goldschmidt is a future Hall of Famer who should be very good

• Jazz Chisholm should be a plus player (but, to be honest, for the entirety of his career, he has not been)

• Anthony Volpe plays great defense

• Cody Bellinger is a solid outfielder

• Austin Wells just might be a star

That's not a lot. When the Yankees lost 40% of their starting staff, the team's biggest strength became a weakness. The reality of the team, the more one looks at it is that they do not have the talent nor depth to be a top team. If the Yankees defy this expectation, it will be less that they're good and more a reflection of the lack of quality around the league. (That's really not something to celebrate. "We're not good, but we're not as bad as the other guy...")

The Yankees have an additional problem. It's been a problem for a long time. The manager and general manager almost always defer to the veteran player - even when it is clear that the veteran has nothing left to offer. As we get close to the beginning of 2025, the veteran player who demonstrates this continued fascination with "experience" (at the expense of quality) is Dom Smith.

It seems that, right now, the Yankees plan to use Dom Smith as a regular in the lineup. It seems that Dom Smith is going to start, a lot. That's the wrong move. It's a terrible move and it's bad thinking, managing, and roster building. Considering Dom Smith as an important piece of the team is a decision that speaks to the core of the Yankees problem for the past many years. The Yankees do not often trust their own young talent. They, almost always, defer to a veteran, even if he isn't a quality player. Just because a player has experience, does not mean he is any good.

Dom Smith shouldn't be taking away at bats from Ben Rice and Everson Pereira or any other young player. At all. Ever.

Dom Smith has played 8 seasons. He's put up an OPS+ equal to or better than league average in a non-Covid season exactly once. One time. And that was in 2019, a long time ago. In short, that means that in 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024, the last four seasons, Dom Smith has been a below league average hitter. There is no place on a team that wants to contend giving lots of at bats to a below average hitter who has demontsrated over a long (enough) career that he is a below league average hitter.

Every at bat Dom Smith takes is one that should go to a young player who might have a future. Ben Rice might have a future. Everson Pereira might have a future. Dom Smith does not. This is very simple and obvious. Dom Smith should not be getting at bats for the 2025 Yankees at the expense of young talent.

In the Boone Era alone, the Yankees have tried this approach a million times and it hasn't worked. The Yankees have stuck with fading veterans such as Edwin Encarnacion, Kendrys Morales, Troy Tulowitzki, Chris Gittens, Jay Bruce, Willie Calhoun, and Franchy Cordero (among others) time after time after time. It's a failed approach. It's failed time and time and time again.

It many ways, it is inconceivable that they continue to try this failed approach time and time and time again.

But... to go back to my original point at the start of the article, if I ran the team, I'd be nice, patient and reasonable, and I would give it a month. Hey, you never know. "That's why they play the games."

If Dom Smith is doing fine, I'd give him another month, but the moment it seems clear that this is a failed strategy (and it is) I'd pull the plug. Playing Dom Smith does not help the 2025 Yankees. Worse, it does nothing, at all, or in any way, to help the Yankees in 2026 and beyond. (Spoiler Alert - playing young kids could help the future.)

It's already clear, to me, that the Yankees will not contend. They do not have a good enough team. Outside of the fascination with playing mediocre veterans at the expense of kids, when one looks at the starting staff realistically, it is clear that the Yankees are in trouble.

The biggest concern for the 2025 Yankees is that they do not have the starting pitching to truly contend:

• Max Fried pitches like an ace, when he pitches, but he does not provide enough innings to be the ace. (Blake Snell isn't all that different as a pitcher, results wise, than Fried. They've both very good, but their lack of innings as the top guy is problematic for a contender. As the second guy, either is a perfect fit. As the number one pitcher, not so much.)

  
  

• Carlos Rodon was barely league average last year. He was far from league average in

  2023. He is paid like an ace, but he's not. He's not good enough to be the second guy in the rotation.

  
  

• Clarke Schmidt has talent, but he is 29-years-old, has a bad back, and has never won even 10 games in a season.

  
  

• I discussed Marcus Stroman and Will Warren in depth in an article the other day. Stroman has performed worse year-after-year for three consecutive seasons. Will Warren has never had any sustained success above Double -A.

  
  

• The last time Carlos Carrasco was a better than league average pitcher (over a full non-Covid season) was in 2018.

And that's the best the Yankees have to utilze in the starting rotation. Going out and signing a fringe pitcher off the scrap heap isn't going to change that dynamic. In addition, I don't believe the Yankees have the minor league talent to get a top starter from another team.

Fans can hope on these starting pitchers. Fans can dream on these guys. But the reality is the Yankees' rotation is made up of Max Fried and a bunch of questions. That isn't going to cut it. I'm fine letting Will Warren and Clarke Schmidt pitch to gain more experience and to see what they can bring in the seasons ahead, but the other guys, after Fried, have no real future with the Yankees.

So, in short, I'd give the team April. I might give the team May as well. But, by June 1, it will be clear that the dream is over. By then it will be foolish to continue to pretend that this team is any more than what it is. We're looking at a second division club, the sooner the Yankees realize this, the better.

On June 1, it'll be time to trade Trent Grisham, Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, and Cody Bellinger. By June 1, the Yankees should be playing their kids, not chasing a fading dream by playing veterans like Carlos Carrasco and Dominic Smith who are way way way past their primes. DJ LeMahieu and Giancarlo Stanton, by then should also not be part of the Yankees' picture any longer. It'll be time to move on.

After June 1, I would give my manager, Aaron Boone, four months to demonstrate that he's the right manager for a team of young "could-be" stars. I'd need him to prove that he can get young kids big league ready. If he can't, I'd say goodbye to Mr. Boone after the season. The last time the Yankees tried to get a ton of young players to greatness under Boone, it didn't work. I don't think it will in 2025 either, but I'd give him a chance to prove otherwise.

I know fans don't want to hear this so close to Opening Day, but it's only a matter of time before it becomes clear to all that it's time for the Yankees to fold.

The Yankees should give it a chance. Miracles happen. Who knows? I'd go with the dream until the dream becomes the nightmare it is bound to become.