By Paul Semendinger
December 9, 2024
***
Well, there went that night's nice sleep...
I woke up to get a drink, saw the Juan Soto news (Ethan left me a note) and thought, "I'll write something in the morning... in a few hours." Nope. I couldn't fall back asleep. Juan Soto is a Met.
There is much to say, discuss, and think about. I'll get to much of it here. I won't get to everything, I'm sure. (It's the middle of the night!)
First, I do not begrudge Juan Soto. He is not a traitor. He got the best deal he could and he took it. It is what it is. He owed the Yankees nothing. This is how free agency works.
Second, the Yankees came up just short again. I have a feeling this will be the new Yankees way - coming up just short. The Yankees made a competitive offer. It wasn't good enough. The same thing happened last year with Yamamoto. I think we're going to see this pattern continue. Good enough isn't. The Yankees' offer will appease many fans. "They offered $760 million." Bottom line, it wasn't enough.
Third, many will say "How much money does Juan Soto need?" That's not for us to judge or determine. Obviously Soto took the deal with more money over one fewer year. The Mets' offer was better. A counter to the Soto question is "How much money does Hal Steinbrenner need?"
Fourth, years ago I wrote that the new big player in New York was going to be the Mets. Some of my biggest critics here scoffed at me. I wonder if they'll now say, "Hummm, I guess I was wrong. Paul was years ahead on this." Make no mistake, the Mets played this to win. The Yankees did not. The Yankees played this to be competitive. The Yankees, in almost all they do, want to be good enough, not great, not the best. The Yankees count on their fans making excuses for why they fall short. This is their model. We have seen fans making excuses for the Yankees for a long long time. We will see a lot of that again today and in the days to come.
Fifth, this is a huge change in the way we look at sports in New York. The New York Yankees are not New York's mightiest franchise any longer. The Yankees never before lost a superstar player to the Mets. They did last night. I doubt this will be the last time. This is the new era. The Mets and the Dodgers are playing big. They are making the huge deals. The Yankees are not in their league right now.
Sixth, the Mets actually showed their muscle years ago when they acquired Francisco Lindor and the Yankees, in that same era, waited around for an older and less-talented D.J. LeMahieu to sign with them. I was critical of this at the time. A better player was available and the Yankees didn't get him. Yankees excuse makers argued that Lindor was way overpaid by the Mets. Again, they were wrong. ("But the Yankees got so much more value by getting LeMahieu over six years.")
Seventh, the Dodgers seem unafraid to make huge deals to stay great. The Mets too. The Yankees, not so much. Other teams seem willing to go all in. All the way. Not the Yankees. Again, many will say, "It was a great offer." Bottom line, it wasn't good enough. The Yankees will say, "We have nothing to be ashamed of. We offered a ton." And they did offer a ton, but they came up too short. The Mets offered more annually, by millions. The Mets are giving Soto $51 million a season. The Yankees offered $47.5. For all who don't think $3.5 million is a lot of money, please send me just $35.00. It's easy to say, "What's a few million?" as we keep our single dollars and quarters. $3.5 million is $3.5 million. Would you take 3.5 million fewer dollars every year for 15 years? (The Yankees offer would make Juan Soto play an extra year and he's still be $5 million short of the Mets offer. Does that sound like a good enough deal for you? Seriously. Imagine that deal in the dollars that matter to you. "You can work an extra year, and you'll still get a bit less.")
Eighth, I have also said this, a lot... The Mets are not stupid. Steve Cohen is a very smart businessman. Cohen is one of baseball's richest owners. He's one of the richest people in the world. He knows what he's doing. He did not make this deal to lose money. And, he won't. There is more money in the game than any of us understand.
Ninth, the Yankees now need to pivot and find a way to replace Soto's production. It will be very interesting to see what they do. Right now, they are a much lesser team. They just lost one of the greatest hitters of this generation, and by some accounts, all-time.
Tenth, I used to wonder what it was like to be an Orioles fan in 1977 after Reggie Jackson, after just one season there, left for another team. I now know. This never used to be the Yankees way.
Eleventh, the Blue Jays must now realize that Vlad Guerrero, Jr. will not be with them in 2026. They have to trade him or will lose him for nothing. (The way the Yankees just did with Juan Soto.) The Yankees have a huge hole at first base and in the middle of their lineup. It's now time to make a deal with the Blue Jays. I cannot think of any other player who can impact a game like Guerrero who is also available (or who even might be available). It's time for the Yankees to pivot and make a huge move of their own. The Yankees also, again, are very weak from the left side. Jazz Chisholm and Austin Wells (and maybe Jasson Dominguez) are their left-handed batters right now. It seems Cody Bellinger will soon be in New York.
Twelfth, Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole are not getting younger. The window is open right now, although it closed a lot last night. If the Yankees don't make some big moves now, 2025 will be an ugly year. The 2025 Yankees are a significantly worse team right now than the 2024 team.
Thirteenth, remember when the Yankees had a big lead in Game 5 of the World Series last year? That might be the high water mark of our generation.
Fourteenth, I guess paying for Bryce Harper all those years ago was the smart move. The Yankees watched their dollars and never even played in that game. Harper was too expensive for them. You know what? Not getting him cost a ton more. The Yankees are still paying for that huge mistake. Juan Soto changed that, for a season. It wasn't enough.
Fifteenth, I was going to buy season tickets (a small package) if the Yankees re-signed Soto. I still might, but I need to see a commitment to winning by the Yankees before I do. I will make my season ticket decision after I see how the Yankees respond to losing Juan Soto.
Sixteenth, the Yankees have holes at first base, second base, left field, center field, starting pitching, and in the bullpen. That's a lot of holes to plug. Juan Soto, himself, made a lot of those holes less of a problem. He covered up a lot. Now, without Soto, those holes become more glaring.
The 2025 Yankees, right now:
A good field shortstop who hasn't proven he can hit
A third baseman playing out of position who has tons of potential, but has never lived up to it
A catcher who is young and talented, but who didn't hit for a over a month last year
A supertstar right fielder
An aging and oft-injured designated hitter
A highly-touted prospect in left field or center field
An ace pitcher who missed half of last year because he was injured and who hasn't been as great since he returned
A rookie of the year second starter
A lot of mediocrity...
That does not say, "Championship."
Seventeenth, as Yankees fans, we have now seen and learned how other fans of other franchises live. The Yankees have gone a long time without winning a championship. The Yankees continually miss out on generational talents. The Yankees build teams with glaring holes. The Yankees stick with a leadership team that continually falls short in deals and with a manager on the field who also gets outclassed. This has been the Yankees for a long long time. Many want to make excuses for the team, but, in sports, in the end, it's about winning. And in all cases with the Yankees, winning simply isn't what they do a lot of lately. They lose big games and then they lose in the off-season. This is the reality. Others will argue that I'm wrong. "That's not the case, Paul." It is. Period. It is.
Eighteenth, and finally, for now, it's early December, the Yankees can still make some bold moves. They can change the narrative. I hope they do. But I'm not optimistic...
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Jumping in here. I haven't read a Yankees miss out of Soto take yet that rivals Pauls. Paul is a great writer and SSTN is great because of all of you. I loved reading all of your takes today. Kudos to Paul for setting the table and kudos to all of our contributors for writing such intelligent stuff. Love this site to this day. Folks, have a happy holiday season also. Let's take a breath. The world is still spinning. Soto is a Met. Fair question here, but did the Yanks dodge a bullet on this one?
Also, Bieber off the market...
Video tonight showing Dave Parker. Oh yeah!
This of course is disappointing, but part of me is OK with it in the context of recent Yankee business - pay the star and go cheap elsewhere. I was bracing for the DJL/Oswaldo first base platoon…
There are still quality players available, and the opportunity to put together a very good team still exists…if they will spend to do it. The sky is not falling.