by Paul Semendinger
January 11, 2023
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There have been many great threads in the comments these last few weeks. I enjoy good discussions and debates about the Yankees. It is wonderful.
Just a reminder, keep the debate focused on baseball. If I see people insulting other readers, I'll delete their posts. The put downs are unnecessary, juvenile, and certainly not appreciated. They also shut down discussion which is the exact opposite of what we're trying to do here. Debate with each other all you wish, but do so respectfully and keep it clean.
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One idea that came out of the comments recently was this idea that the Yankees have been losing in the playoffs because the playoffs are random and that luck plays a big part in determining who wins. The idea is that the Yankees could have won more World Series in recent years, but they've just been unlucky.
I understand that argument. It makes sense, and we've all seen when it is true. We've all seen wild card teams win championships. It happens. Sometimes the best team loses. Of course.
But, I will push back on that theory explaining why the Yankees have not been winning World Series this century - especially since 2010. In short, while it's true that the best teams sometimes lose, the Yankees, in fact, for the most part have not been the best team.
If the Yankees had the best team heading into the playoffs, then the argument that they are losing because of bad luck or the randomness of the playoffs could be made, but, as I will show, the Yankees have, most often, not been the best team heading into the playoffs. As a result, the outcome that transpired (the Yankees coming up short and failing to reach or win a World Series) was exactly what was supposed to happen.
In fact, if the Yankees won in recent years, it would not have been because they were the best team, but because of the randomness of the playoffs and luck - good luck.
In short, the Yankees have been good enough to make the playoffs, but they have not been the best team in the league, and as such, it is no surprise that they have not reached the World Series - they weren't supposed to. They haven't been the team that should win.
This has been one of the things that has frustrated me the most about the Yankees of today, and the last decade especially. I have written this often. They are good. They are very good. But they're not great. They haven't been great. I am a believer that good is the enemy of great. The Yankees seem to act otherwise. From my perspective, the Yankees want to do just enough, spend just enough, to make the playoffs, or be close, with the hopes that luck will carry them through to a World Series trophy.
The best team will not always win. But in the Yankees' case, they most often have not been the best team.
Let's take a look:
2022 - The Yankees won 99 games. They were not the best team in the league. The Astros won 106 games. The Astros were the best team in the league. The Astros also won the World Series.
2021 - The Yankees were a wild card team. They finished in a tie for second place. They were clearly not the best team. They didn't win the World Series. It had nothing to do with bad luck.
2020 - The Yankees were a second place team. They were the fourth best team in the American League. They certainly were not the favorites to win the league let alone the World Series. And they didn't.
2019 - The Yankees won 103 games, but lost to the Astros who won 107 games. The Yankees were very good, but they were not the best team in the league. They did as they should have - losing in the Championship Series.
2018 - The Yankees were a second place team with the league's third best record. They lost in the Division Series.
2017 - The Yankees were a second place team with the league's fourth best record. The made it to the Championship Series and lost.
2016 - The Yankees finished in fourth place. They did not make the playoffs.
2015 - The Yankees were a second place team. They lost a one-game Wild Card game.
2014 - The Yankees were a second place team but has the seventh best record in the A.L. They did not reach the playoffs.
2013 - The Yankees finished in fourth place, they did not reach the playoffs.
2012 - The Yankees were the best team in the American League. They lost to the Tigers in the American League Championship Series. If one wishes to say that bad luck played a factor in the Yankees not reaching a World Series, it would be fair to point to 2012. In this season, the best team, the Yankees, didn't win.
2011 - The Yankees were the best team in the American League. They lost to the Tigers in the Division Series. If one wishes to say that bad luck played a factor in the Yankees not reaching a World Series, it would be fair to point to 2011 as well.
2010 - The Yankees were a second place team. They lost in the Championship Series to the Rangers.
This quick study clearly demonstrates that the reason for the Yankees not reaching the World Series has not been bad luck (except in 2011 and 2012, but that was more than a decade ago...).
The main reason why the Yankees have not advanced through the playoffs is the simple fact that they did not have the best team over the course of a full season heading into the playoffs. Rather than bad luck keeping the Yankees out of the World Series, the Yankees have been kept out of the World Series because they weren't supposed to get there. They were not the best team.
Now, if the Yankees had gone out and addressed the many weaknesses that so many have documented on a year-in-year-out basis, and then they lost... that would be a different story. But that just has not been the case.
When the Yankees reach the playoffs with the league's best record and lose in the post season, we can discuss the role that bad luck played. But that certainly has not occurred in well over a decade.
Your recitation pretty much demonstrates the opposite of your thesis: When the Yankees had the best record, they didn't win the World Series. Sometimes the team with the best record did go to/won the World Series; sometimes it didn't. That suggests that the team that wins the World Series was the beneficiary not simply of being good, but being lucky (including, like the Phillies, getting hot at just the right moment).
Let's consider the last six years, since the retooling in 2016:
2017 ALCS, Cheatros 4 Yankees 3 -- Houston won by cheating, winning all four games at home
2018 ALDS, Red Sox 3 Yankees 1 -- Stanton went 4 for 18 with 6 K's
2019 ALCS, Astros 4 Yankees…
Can we say they are unlucky and they haven’t done a great job making their good luck? You look at the 2022 Phillies, who weren’t a particularly good team during the season, but caught fire in the playoffs to realize that there’s a significant luck factor these days.
I like Harper, and would have loved to see him in Pinstripes, but I’ve always been a bit more bent out of shape about how they have passed on ace pitching. I’d take my chances with a patchwork offense with elite starting pitching.
Well if they''re not going to get better they better find out way to get luckier 😀
I can't help but think about the Yankees' mistakes in not trying to sign the free agent generational talent that became available. Could not any of the following players have helped the Yankees?: Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Adrian Beltre, and others. I'm not implying that these players wanted to play for the Yankees or play in New York but looking back I didn't see the Yankees brass even make an honest effort to sign these players. Does it speak to the Yankees' current mindset that close is good enough?
As Cashman has relied more and more on analytics and taken the human element out of it, this franchise will never get close unless everything will fall into place. That will never happen.