by Paul Semendinger
July 24, 2024
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Imagine a baseball team that wows its fans by playing 18-8 over a calendar month, or, even better, going 35-20 over two months. Yes, that happened. Absolutely. It happened to a team in May and June, they looked, for a while there, to be unstoppable.
Wait, there's more.
That team, it isn't the 2024 Yankees, over the course of a full season, had 38 comeback wins.
But, let's not assume that that team only won close games. No, this was a team that could crush their opponents. Crush them. During the season, that team won won a bunch of big scoring games. Here's a sampling:
April 3: 12-3
May 26: 15-1
May 29: 14-4
June 6: 10-4
June 11: 13-3
June 13: 11-3
June 17: 15-0...
That team had a 16-run game!
That team had a 10-game winning streak...
Their starting pitchers threw 13 shutouts...
In extra innings, they were 11-5.
You get the idea.
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When the Yankees win big, fans celebrate. We hear the optimism:
"They're back."
"They're in control."
Fans also make funny jokes, "I guess they're hitting too many homers. HA!"
We read and hear things like, "Bad teams don't play 15 games over .500 for two months..."
We read and hear things like, "Yes, this is a team with heart and drive and focus. If they're down, they don't stay down for long. There was always fight in that squad."
On and on and on.
We're seeing this exact dynamic play out with the 2024 Yankees.
"They still have a great record."
"They can crush their opponents."
"The pitching has a lot of shutouts."
"They never give up."
Often times we make the narratives we tell fit the wishes we have.
We want the Yankees to be good so many people look to stats like the ones I shared above to demonstrate (they believe convincingly) that the Yankees of this year are for real and that they are a championship club...
Fans use stats like these to give themselves hope. They wanna believe...
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Like the team I began this article with:
In 2024, the New York Yankees went 35-20 over two calendar months (in May and June).
In 2024, the New York Yankees are on pace to have 37 comeback wins over the full season.
In 2024, the Yankees have had many games where they have crushed their opponents.
The 2024 Yankees had a 16-run game.
The 2024 Yankees have not won 10 consecutive games, but they came close, winning 8 in a row.
The 2024 Yankees are on pace to throw 12 shutouts.
Yes, there are a lot of stats to look at to make the fans believe. That is certainly true...
They wanna believe!
***
The team cited above was the 2023 San Francisco Giants. They finished the season 79-83. For all intents and purposes, they were a .500 ballclub, or just about.
This is what mediocrity looks like.
Mediocre teams have periods where they can look very very good. The 2023 Giants looked very good for a good long period. There were a lot of reasons to believe in that team.
Unfortunately, they went:
12-13 in July (But I can still imagine the optimism from the fans, "They're hanging in there...")
12-15 in August ("With a few breaks they can still turn this around..." Of note, they were still 70-64)
and 9-18 in September ("It's over.")
Once they fell, they couldn't get back up.
I'm not saying that this will happen to the 2024 Yankees, but since mid-June, to me, the Yankees look more like the 2023 San Francisco Giants than a team that will reach the World Series.
Yes, there is hope, but unless the Yankees make big changes over the next week, that hope is false hope.
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Rumor has it that the Yankees are interested in a reunion with reliever Chad Green for the bullpen. He is having a decent season this year, and he would help.
seems everyone is talking about a leadoff guy. it would definitely be helpful.
2 things-
first, for me, I always have to think WHO would i feel comfortable knowing they would come up in the 9th inning and i would have to HOPE they could get on so Soto and Judge get a shot
i think there are very very few players that fit that hope. so you either think about moving Soto and Judge to 1 and 2, OR you get the best player available even if you know you will be sad to have to count on him to get on with the game on the line
second, how many real leadoff hitters even exist in all of…
I feel like EJ answered this question for you yesterday. no? it seemed that you were in agreement when he explained the differences between the 2024 Yankees and the 2023 Giants
I FULLY AGREE with you- the Yankees need KEY and meaningful additions!!! i am totally against Jazz Chisholm. that is the type of half measure that we get much too often!! is he better than DJ, OF COURSE. if that is our answer to HOW did we get better at the deadline, we are going to need to get EVERY possible break the rest of the way- as you say relying on hope and good fortune
at the same time, it also seems that you have some investment nearly…
Ah, further to the podcast between you and E.J. that was put up on this site yesterday.
an interesting perspective
but not one offering much evidence of similarities in the construction of the two ball clubs that would serve to underpin the idea that the Yankees will prove similar to that Giants team
is the Yankee defense similar to those Giants?
are they sending similar starters to the mound?
are Estrada and Yastrzemski leaders similar to the 2024 Yankees' leaders?